How much longer can we keep things shut down?

[Amishman]

I'm starting to see stay at home orders extended into May, and new infections do not seem to be declining.

Some businesses are putting together contingency plans for this running well into summer or fall. I don't think we can extend the lockdowns that far without economic collapse that no amount of stimulus will resolve.

I am starting to think the only way to get out of this is about six more weeks of stay at home. During that time we need more improvised hospitals, mass production of vents and protective equipment, crash training of additional medical staff, large scale coordinated trials of every proposed vaccine or treatment, public training on proper use of masks and gloves.

Then we open back up, with masks mandated in public.

The problem is the 'moon program' needed in the remaining shutdown needs a strong hand to do it, and we have a citrus fruit for a president.

[samnsara]

1. im resolved that this will last until the election at least

[BigmanPigman]

2. If we did what S Korea did would could be

easing up by the summer but the moron won't do it. He is prolonging it, making it much worse in the end.

[beachbumbob]

3. most likely thru summer if not fall, early winter

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. I think we are looking at 12-18 months - this will be a US life paradigm shift

[Ace Rothstein]

11. There's no way we continue what we are doing right now for 12-18 months.

The amount of death due to violence and economics would dwarf the disease at that point.

[stillcool]

12. cure worse than the disease?

we'll be dead anyway, might as well make some money if you don't have to mingle among the diseased masses.

[Ace Rothstein]

13. There is a definitely a point where you'll be able to say the cure is worse than the disease.

I just have no idea when that is and I'm glad I'm not making the call. I also don't trust the dipshit in charge to make the call at the right point. Him saying the cure is worse than the disease at the beginning of this thing was completely moronic but not unexpected.

[Calculating]

17. Exactly

We'd be looking at the greatest depression, and the sheer number of suicides, violent deaths, and ruined lives alone would blow away anything the virus is capable of. This CAN NOT continue for a year or more. We need to get stuff to about 80% of normal again with mandatory orders to wear face masks in public and a huge public awareness campaign. Particularly vulnerable people can stay safe at home if they need to, but the rest of us want to get back to work.

[madville]

5. A month or two more at the most

Then some tough decisions will have to be made. I think eventually high-risk people (elderly, immune compromised, etc) will have to observe strict isolation and stay at home orders while the rest of the country goes back to its normal routine the best it can and gets the economy back on its feet. That could be the best way to transition back to normalcy.

I don't think the pressure to reopen everything will come from where we expect either. I think it will be the millions of people on the verge of losing their homes and vehicles and businesses that will demand things reopen before they lose everything.

Building field hospitals isn't a bad idea if there are medical professionals to staff them, that's the biggest problem. You can't produce an ICU nurse in a two week crash course, that takes years of training.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. When

When you add those with diabetes, hypertension, and obesity to the elderly you're literally including nearly half the population. That's a lot of people you're asking to stay home.

[Calculating]

18. So do we just keep the country closed for a year?

Because they're saying that a vaccine won't come much sooner than that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. The answer to that is beyond my ken.

We aren't close to panic yet. That will occur when there are crying children on tv who say ma or pa were "triaged" out of a ventilator.

[Squinch]

6. This isn't going to obey our whims of "six more weeks." It will take what it takes.

And your list of what we need for the next six weeks? None of that is going to happen.

We are all on our own. All of us. This will be what it is. It will not follow any rules we put to it. Prepare as well as you can and isolate as well as you can. If you get sick, nurse yourself as well as you can.

That is all we can do. There will be no help. Stop looking for it.

BUT also know this: it was all avoidable. We had the structure in place to deal with this. Filthy Donnie and his acolytes dismantled it, spread the virus, and caused this disaster.

[TwilightZone]

7. A lot of places will be peaking in six weeks.

That's not really a realistic timeframe for those areas.

[Generic Brad]

8. Realistically?

Through August. Then when we do go back to work, it flares up again a few months later. Until we have a vaccine this cycle will keep repeating.

[MacKasey]

9. There has to be a blood test for the antibodies

Every one gets tested to see if they have already had it

Since the U.S. only started testing in March, who knows how many people were sick and have recovered or have died from it

[sinkingfeeling]

10. Friend in Australia says their PM says minimum of 6 months.

[greenjar_01]

15. We're going to have to clear the peaks in the hospitals

May 15 for areas now hard hit, later for other areas. Or, roll the dice with a million dead, some just laid out in the street.

Your choice.

[bullwinkle428]

16. Italy and Spain are actually showing some positive signs, in terms of flattening the curves

indicating both new cases and total deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

[Calculating]

19. I'd say we can handle another month or two

After that, things will start to get VERY bad in a hurry. I'm talking violence, riots, mass suicides and domestic violence, great depression 2.0 level bad. People cannot take this much longer, economically OR mentally.

[Baclava]

21. The virus is in charge of that, nothing WE do will change its course, it will burn through hosts

Just like the 1918 flu, it came out of nowhere and killed 550,000 Americans in 10 months then disappeared. That one killed the most in the 21-29 age group though, those with strongest immune responses were killed fastest, unlike this one. But we have many more old an sick being targeted now, no telling how long it will take.

Did U watch the PBS show on the 1918 flu? Nothing they did stopped it, it spread like wildfire and nothing they tried mattered, masks didn't matter, big cities hit the hardest, government in denial the whole time, from the beginning, eerily similar. Herd immunity finally ended it they said.

'I had a little bird, it's name was Enza
I opened up the window and in flew Enza'

Children's playground song - 1918

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. It killed my maternal grandfather at 35. My mom was nine months old.

[customerserviceguy]

24. Yep

Memorial Day at the minimum is what I figure.