I noticed something odd about the number of reported cases vs deaths

[MichaelSoE]

Every morning the first thing I do is make a cup of coffee then boot the machine and go to the Guardian web site. They have a map based on data collected from ...

Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE *Note: The CSSE states that its numbers rely upon publicly available data from multiple sources

They also publish the numbers of reported cases and deaths, state by state.

While looking at the numbers I noticed that a few states (mostly MAGA country) had higher than the "average" death rates and wondered why.
Some examples... I chose the ones below because they demonstrate the discrepancy I noticed. There are more in the chart that warrant attention but I am too lazy to do the math and do all the typing. I'm a lurker, not a poster.


State/territory Confirmed cases Deaths

Texas 6,872 122 (1.7%)
Georgia 6,383 208 (3.2%)

Kentucky 917 40 (4.5%)
District of Columbia 902 21 (2.3%)

The first one, TX & GA, was the one that initially caught my eye. When I mentioned what I had noticed to my wife, we started to surmise why the differences. Both had about the same amount of confirmed cases. Hmmmm. Why was Georgia so high?

#1. We speculated that GA residents who work in Atlanta but live outside the city do not have the resources to combat the disease when people became ill.
#2. A severe lack of testing put Georgia's confirmed case number on par with Texas

And that brought my attention to DC and KY.
While DC has a fairly high percentage of deaths, one has to consider the population density.
Kentucky, with a 4.5% death rate is unbelievable. There either has to be a severe lack of testing or KY is stuck in the same situation as GA. No resources to treat.

Our final hypothesis is if you are poor and live in a red state; you are fucked, again.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-map-us-latest-cases-state-by-state

Feel free to do some number crunching and form your own hypothesis.

Be safe and more importantly ... be smart

[magicarpet]

1. Don't just lurk,...

..... dive in deep,... up to your neck.


WELCOME !

[magicarpet]

3. Immerse yourself in Democracy before the Fascists make it disappear.

[malaise]

2. Get thee to the greatest page

Rec

[magicarpet]

4. Morn'in - Lady Jamaica.

[malaise]

5. Hey you

Stay safe

[magicarpet]

9. YUP !

[Hortensis]

6. Red states tend to be poor and have substandard healthcare.

Southern states tend to be red and poor. Poor people tend to suffer more from chronic disease and inadequate healthcare. Rural people tend to be poor and increasingly without local hospitals as Republican underfunding has been closing them down. And, specifically, AA, most of whom live in the rural south and average older, tend to suffer from chronic diseases and disability more than others, including in some cases from genetic disposition.

Plus, that the southerners average strongly conservative and religious is well known, less understood is that that goes for southern minorities also, not just whites. Conformity in thought and action has greater importance.

An opinion piece by an AA writer also mentioned that early on there was a notion among some AA that COVID hit blacks less than whites, based on the low numbers of incidences being reported in Africa. He expected an explosion of cases and seemed to think that would be a factor among many.

But in any case, diabetes or COPD and COVID are not good combinations.

[Phoenix61]

7. Comorbidity has a lot to do with this.

Obesity, diabetes, high-blood pressure all increase the risk of poor outcomes. Some talk about Ace inhibitors being especially problematic as they increase the ability of the virus to attach (or multiply?). Not sure if that has panned out or not.

[duforsure]

8. I suspect they've been given orders from trump

Do anything to protect trump first, which could be rigging their numbers for him. Gov. Abbott's just another willing trump lackey who'd do anything asked of him. Under trump all red state numbers could be getting rigged, like Desantos has done in Florida's jobless numbers for him. When there is a review of this , I think we'll learn many things trump has been involved in to undermine the truth when the commission looks into everything. Democrat's need badly to have this up and ready to go on day one, and reversing trumps policies , all of them. republicans will try to set this up before the election so they'll have control. but the Dems need to refuse that.

[magicarpet]

12. Fudging the numbers to have them say what you want.

trDumpie the king of fabrications, deceit, projections, and obstrafications.

TRANSITIVE VERB: ob·fus·cat·ed , ob·fus·cat·ing , ob·fus·cates. To make so confused or opaque as to be difficult to perceive ...

[3catwoman3]

26. I think we have a potential neologism...

...here, a Trump-specific variation of obfuscate - obFUCKscate.

[lastlib]

32. Ah, slight misspelling--

ObFUCK-SKATE----because he gets away with it.... ---

[3catwoman3]

37. Even better.

back atcha!

[lastlib]

31. Don't omit "Sharpification"........

[magicarpet]

34. That'$ the ticket,...

We write a whole brand new dictionary ju$t to define trDumpie.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

10. None of the numbers are absolutely correct anyway.

People die, but are they all tested to see if they had the virus? Probably not. So, the number of dead reported is low. Probably significantly low in states without enough tests/money.

Even further off is the number of people infected. Without enough tests, the number reported is way too low. We'll get a better picture when we have available tests for the virus to see who is infected, and tests for the antibodies, to see who was infected in the past.

I'm ignoring the numbers, just laying low, wearing masks and gloves, washing hands, and watching netflix.

[gab13by13]

16. Exactly, all of the state's numbers are under-reported,

Trump is doing everything he can to avoid massive testing which is step #1 in beating this virus. Massive testing would, however, skyrocket the numbers which would make Trump look bad.
I can understand why there are so many deaths in Texas seeing as 25% of the population is uninsured and being so, averse to going to the doctor.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

36. Under-reported numbers hurt tRump, but he is stupid. They make people spread more by complacency. nt

[certainot]

11. aside from what other posters are putting up if severity is related to the amount of virus you get

dosed with then that relates directly to how aware and cautious people are and that relates to the informattion you're getting/believing anad that relates to how much of the community was listening to assholes like limbaugh and the local radio blowhards who were all calling it a hoax until it was too late and they had to start backtracking and blaming democrats.

that would effect how cautious people were around the elderly, how people with possible symptoms were treated at home, in public, how much ridicule you got if you were being cautious, wearing aa mask, etc.

red states are talk radio states and instead of letting all those radio stations (licensed to operate in the public interest) now make excuses, ignore their part, and keep blaming democrats all the way to the election, Americans might want to give them the blame they need.

every advertiser on every rw radio station needs to be asked why they supported COVID denial and delay.

and the 87+ universities as well as pro teams that broadcasts sports on those stations (when sports is back) needs to be asked same

[Chainfire]

13. It could be that

Most people in these states are not tested, which would skew the numbers to suggest a higher death rate.

Many uninsured people only see a doctor when they have to make a trip to the ER. If you recover at home from the Covid-19 then you are never counted in the stats. Once you make the trip to the ER you get counted in the system. So only the sickest are entering the data pool.

[MontanaFarmer]

17. This. In places that aren't yet a hotspot,

only the very ill are being tested. If you're sick enough in Kentucky to be tested there's a 5% chance you're sick enough to die. Comirbidity, as mentioned above, is a good point also.

[magicarpet]

40. As stated above,.. trDumpie has a propensity to fudge numbers in his favor....

Expect them to take the secondary co-morbidity but attribute the Covid death to something else. Just read the patients chart,... pick a co-morbidity and blame the death on that,.. not the trDumpie Coronavirus pandemic fuck up.

Drop the Covid death rate and statistics into oh,.. so what,.. not so alarming or astounding territory,... to make trDumpie look good.

78 dead bodies in that refrigerated shipping container. What did they all die of ?

Oh no big deal,.. they all died of ingrown toe nails that got horrifically infected,... you know septic or staff or staph,.. or some such or other. But they did not die due to the Coronavirus Pandemic.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. You can sort on tests, cases and death per capita at the worldometer site

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Georgia is 11th in deaths, 14th in cases, and 47th in tests. Kentucky is 23rd in deaths, 48th in cases, and 37th in tests.

The amount of testing has varied widely; this could affect the 'known cases' figure quite a lot too, if there are mild cases sitting at home untested in some states but not others. Deaths are less likely to be affected, but lag behind; and that's another reason the death/case number can vary - outbreaks started at various points, and some states may still not be showing many deaths, but will soon.

[UpInArms]

35. There is an interesting feature

On this website

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Regarding testing ...

If you click on the blue test tube icon next to the state, it gives the number of tests per day, with the percentages of positive and negative results ...

Example:

On March 31, Missouri tests results were 17% positive.... I think through that, you can assume they are only testing those who are already sick, for the most part

[muriel_volestrangler]

48. I was working that out for the UK figures, and it has gone over 40% positive per day

From 143,186 tested by 31 March, and 25,150 +ve, to 183,190 and 41,903 on 4 April - 16,753/40,004 = 42%.

That's the figure you get when only testing the sick in hospital. 17% probably indicates they're still testing some without symptoms.

[UpInArms]

49. About a week ago,

Missouri’s positive testing rate was 57.8%



Yesterday, I was informed that our local nursing home had a positive resident ... 90 yr old - now in hospital...

They have been on lockdown since March 12, she has been a resident since last September.

Community spread without knowing who is spreading ... no one has been symptomatic...

All persons entering have been temperature checked and questioned...

Spoke with the administrator last night. She is frantic, as they are out of PPE ...

eta: she requested (state health department) test all residents and workers and was denied ... was told that tests would only happen after someone became symptomatic

[beachbumbob]

15. really no relationship between the reported deaths and reported cases as testing has been so limited

we have NO idea what a "death rate" is. We can only tack deaths per capita like based on deaths per million citizens and the like. But until 100% (which is impossible) of all citizens are tested, we will never have a true death rate

[gab13by13]

19. Yes, you nailed it perfectly,

Not to mention that Trump is doing everything he can to stop massive testing. Massive testing would skyrocket all of the numbers and make Trump look bad, and that's all Trump ever cared about, his own image, even at the price of dead Americans.

[Aquaria]

18. One factor with Texas

That you may not have considered:

Georgia doesn’t have as many metro regions as Texas, or at the scale we do. Atlanta and Savannah/Augusta are about it. Meanwhile, over 70% of Texans live in six metro regions: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas/Fort Worth, Austin, the Rio Grande Valley (McAllen/Brownsville), and El Paso. All of them enacted shelter in place orders well before most of the rural areas and small towns did, and long before the state.

Combined with how much of nothing there is in big swaths of Texas, this could be making all the difference in why our numbers are lower.

[gab13by13]

21. Don't forget that 25% of Texans are without health insurance.

[BaileyBill]

28. And if I'm not mistaken,

all of those Texas metro areas have Democratic leadership.

[dawg]

51. The Atlanta metropolitan area is 5.9 million people ...

which is over half the population of the state.

[rmac3075]

20. Kentucky

Kentucky has the highest percentage of smokers in the US; one out of four people smoke.

[elias7]

22. 2 weeks ago in NH, we were only allowed to test people sick enough to be in the hospital

Due to backlog of tests...

If you are only testing the sickest people, the most likely to have covid and die from covid, you will have a higher death rate than if your testing is more reflective of reality - i.e. all inclusive testing, not just the sickest, but also the drive thru folks who are not as ill and not going to perish...

[Oppaloopa]

23. Just saw pictures of dances and swiming at the Villages in Florida Yet they only have a 1 star

hospital. The next week is going to be horrible down here.

[dem4decades]

30. Somehow they'd done a lot of testing and have low numbers or at least that's what I've seen.

They had drive up testing in their little golf carts, i saw a photo and a story and i remember saying to myself, How did they get tests and why are their numbers low?

They didn't seem to be taking it seriously but maybe they were?

[gibraltar72]

24. I think because they let it simmer. In Albany Georgia

there were two well attended funerals. They just kept doing what they always did. Fox Donnie and their Governors never gave them a warning. Many were just not caught early enough. Iggorance is bliss right up until you die.

[Pacifist Patriot]

25. Testing protocols and reporting lags have a lot to do with it.

Even within states.

I'd have to be practically hooked up to a ventilator to get a test in my county, but the next county over from me would test me if I requested it because of my age and risk factors.

Testing is not centralized. We have public health departments, hospitals, and private labs all testing with various lag times for both processing the tests and reporting results to the public.

I have a relative in the Georgia state legislature who had symptoms and a negative flu test. He got the C19 test 16 days ago, has recovered finally, and still hasn't gotten his results back.

Until we have consistent protocols for both testing and assigning cause of death, we will never have a reliable mortality rate. I have heard Germany's rate is so low because they have assigned cause of death to the comorbid condition instead of C19.

Public numbers are essentially useless for the general public right now. Interesting to follow, but loaded with context issues that have to be known for them to make any sense.

[Blues Heron]

27. Multiply deaths by 100 to get a better (albeit still rough) picture of total cases

Harder to hide a death than a mild case.

[Vinca]

29. Thanks for the link to an interesting map and stats.

[GoCubsGo]

33. A good part of it's because they were slow to adopt things like social distancing.

And, when they do, people down here are still ignoring the recommendations, and s the Propaganda Channel watchers all still think it's a big fucking joke. Eight states, including the one where I live still have no "stay at home" orders. Georgia just re-opened its beaches. People are still taking the whole fucking family along on their grocery shopping trips. My gym finally closed down just this past Wednesday. I stopped going weeks ago. Many did not. I'm sure the lack of testing and resources is a problem, but these people are not helping themselves, either.

[greymattermom]

45. The reopen the beaches announcment

requires social distancing, no chairs, etc. It's for walking. Are you allowed to walk outside where you are?

[GoCubsGo]

53. I live in South Carolina.

It's one of the 8 states without a stay-at-home order. So, yes. I can go outside. I go out for my walks early, as many people here are not taking the social distancing thing seriously.

[CincyDem]

38. Re: KY...it's coal country. #2 state for COPD and #2 for smoking.

Combine red state attitudes with compromised respiratory function and 4.5% sounds about right.

[ananda]

39. There was an article about why people in the deep south..

.. seem to catch the virus and often succumb to it in larger
numbers than the rest.

Theories: a lot of black people live in poor areas with substandard
healthcare and fewer facilities. St John's Parish in NOLA is a good
example.

Also, it was noted that people in the south tend to eat more fried
foods and more seem to have hypertension and other underlying
health conditions that make it harder for them to fight the virus.

[magicarpet]

41. Yes there was a real good thread on that yesterday here at DU.

This place is such an astounding repository of information for public consumption.

A lot of smart people on here too.

[genxlib]

42. Aside from all else mentioned

I don't know the timeline in each state but you have to factor in time.

Deaths as of today don't correlate directly to current cases. Since the disease can take ~10-15 days to resolve (ie death or recovered), the real correlation is the current death rate to the tested rate in mid-March.

We won't really know the death rate for these current cases until they resolve.

[Drahthaardogs]

43. Red States fatter, less access to health care for the poor,

And the tobacco belt.

[mercuryblues]

44. Lack of testing

Gotta keep trump's numbers low. trump uses these stats in 2 conflicting ways.
1/ the death rate would be lower, but some people have it and never see a Dr.
2/ I'm keeping it contained. Read: the red stated haven't mandated a stay at home order and they have so few cases. This line of attack elevates the red states as doing great in the fight against C-19. When in reality they aren't testing.

In my state you have to come into direct contact with someone who has tested positive to get a test. My nephew was diagnosed with pneumonia a few weeks ago, they refused to test him because he did not live in a "hot spot," even though he works retail. He was negative for the flu.

My DIL's father was tested. it took almost 2 weeks to get the result, negative. If it was positive only the she could get tested. Her and my son visited me the day before he was tested. The only way I could be tested would be if she was positive. 10 days for her Dad's result, then another 10 days for hers, add another 10 for mine, if I was still alive. You can bet dollars to donuts that if I had caught it and died, before I was tested, my death would not have been linked to C-19 because I didn't have a positive test result.

yeah, she and my son aren't allowed over anymore, they are the weakest link.

Another reason is lack of hospitals in mostly rural states. When a sparsely populated county actually does have a hospital, it is not very big and doesn't have up-to-date facilities needed to combat something like this. They are mostly just a pass through for patients on their way to a bigger hospital.

[IronLionZion]

46. They have worse health in the South to begin with

heart disease, cholesterol, diabetes, and other problems are worse in the South. Adding COVID to that is often lethal.

[LiberalArkie]

47. We will probably never know how many asymptomatic there are and who and how long they carry it.

[Lonestarblue]

50. The low percentage for Texas could be because of Democratic mayors.

The major Texas cities are run by Democrats, and my mayor (Austin) essentially shut most of the city down within a week of our first case. Mayors shut their cities down far faster than the governor, and that covers a huge portion of our population. As of yesterday, we have 460 cases in Austin and 6 deaths, so 1.3%.

I think Harris County (Houston) and Dallas County both have higher numbers. The other major population centers are Fort Worth and San Antonio, but I don’t recall seeing news about their cases.

If Texas escapes this virus with fewer deaths, it will be because mayors reacted quickly and we have some too-notch medical facilities in the urban areas. The potential hotspots are likely to be in the southern tip in Brownsville and surroundings as there is more poverty and people without health insurance.

[Laelth]

52. Atlanta has the busiest airport in the world.

That could have something to do with it.



-Laelth

[Bayard]

54. Why are Beshear's Kentucky coronavirus numbers often low, and sometimes wrong?

https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article241624491.html

“This is all very preliminary information,” Beshear said in his daily news conference Monday. “It’s all less than 24 hours old. Sometimes it’s the county where someone’s tested, sometimes it’s where they reside. Sometimes, there’s even a mistake in it. But when we give you an update every single day and it’s coming from now I think 15 or 16 different labs, that’s the way the information is ultimately going to flow.”

In the midst of a global pandemic, the Kentucky Department of Public Health has had to quickly establish a system for monitoring the number of COVID-19 cases for a fast spreading disease. To do that, they must coordinate with 61 local health departments and more than 30 private testing labs to compile an accurate list of who’s been diagnosed with the disease and where they’re located.

It is far from perfect.


I can't even find a listing of testing sites. I think the closest one to us is Bowling Green, 45 minutes away. So far, no positives reported in our county, but don't think there's any testing being done here.

[LizBeth]

55. Someone in medical field in TExas told me they are not counting a lot of numbers. They had 4

but did not put in the numbers because they were just outside the county line. Still part of city, but where county splits off. So, they belong to another county, but in another county hospital not being included in the numbers.

[MJjjordan]

56. Mj

I'm in Nebraska and I was told by the NDHHS, AND THE EPIDEMIOLOGY DEPARTMENT AT NEBRASKA MEDICINE, that they didn't have the correct type of test kits used to test for COVID-19, and that the kits were actually used for testing for influenza. Which is why they seem to be only testing people that have a fever.
That was back in March, around the 20th, 2020.
So, who really knows what kind of test kits they are actually using, since the test kits and masks that were sent to the U. S., by a charitable organization based in China was sent back by the administration!
Probably why we are know the Epicenter of the infection

[thesquanderer]

57. It's hard to draw any conclusion from those numbers...

...when so many of the cases have only been reported in the last week or so. When figuring percentage who have died, they are counting as not-dead those cases that are under a week old, which (a) is the great majority of cases, and (b) are mostly people who haven't yet been sick enough for long enough to have any idea as to whether or not the disease will be fatal to them.

[dsc]

58. Could DC be exporting its deaths to Maryland and Virginia

not on purpose but just because it is so small geographically.