Massive Dow Futures surge on news that the curve appears in the process of being flattened at last!

[NewsCenter28]

Dow looks set for a massive 600-1,000 point gain tomorrow on all the good COVID-19 modelling news we've had over the weekend!

https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

Edit: Just thought I should edit to add that the very preliminary data is indicating perhaps a curve flattening but it needs more time before a trend can be established, of course. Wall Street nonetheless seems to be all over this potential good news.

[rzemanfl]

1. On what planet? n/t

[orangecrush]

32. +1

[jimfields33]

50. Governor Cuomo said New York is at the peek

[SoonerPride]

2. another dead cat bounce

when it is clear that this will last until there is a vaccine and hundreds of thousands will die and demand will continue to be nil, the market will drop to about 12,000 by November

[customerserviceguy]

26. Another sucker rally

The sharpies sure want some fools to buy the crap they're trying to unload.

Any possible economic recovery in the market is going to take years, not days or even weeks.

[uponit7771]

40. +1, a flat curve does nothing for the economy if the flat part is high

[Ms. Toad]

3. The trend is already 2 weeks. How long do you want?

We've been talking about it here for about a week - I've been posting daily numbers.

Aside from 2 days (which went up by less than one percent), the curve has been flattening since 3/22.

The daily multipliers from 3/22 to today with the two blips.

1.385797497
1.303732189
1.253526924
1.244204075
1.252510592
1.218774507
1.186812131
1.149452168
1.15344921
1.150667708
1.140417971
1.138946898
1.131837616
1.123379552
1.081308594

Note: This does NOT mean the number of new cases is declining. What it means is that it is not growing as quickly. On 3/22, there were 38% more cases than on 3/22 - whereas on 4/5 ("yesterday" on worldometers), there were only 8% more new cases than on 4/4.

[NewsCenter28]

5. No no, I agree with you

Also, looking and more like the Dow will be back to it's 29,700 high by August or September at the latest.

[PubliusEnigma]

10. I heard it would hit 40000 by the time of the NFL opening kick.

[ProfessorGAC]

53. Good One!

The collapse was triggered by, and exacerbated by the pandemic.
But, it's obvious that the index values were actually unsustainable, otherwise big investors would have ridden it out. They didn't.
Smart, long term investors did their profit taking when they could.
Given the fascination in US business with operating on, and growing with increasing debt load, the big indexes were badly inflated.
Even the poster to whom you replied is ridiculously optimistic in the projection that it will be back to 29.7k in 4 or 5 months!

[uponit7771]

41. A flat curve helps the hospitals not the economy or normality

[rufus dog]

16. Thanks for the daily numbers Ms. Toad

Appreciate them.

[Ms. Toad]

25. You're welcome -

I'm largely just dumping them into a spreadsheet and watching them

[roamer65]

17. Social distancing is working.

The bug has no where to go.

[Blue_true]

19. You see that. The average trader on Wall Street reacts to politicians

or state or national experts saying that it looks like the curve is flattening.

BTW, Britain's Boris Johnson is in the hospital, his symptoms from last week failed to get better without hospitalization. To me, that says a lot, even at home his care should have been top notch. If a person of his stature dies because of this virus, the crap hits the fan.

[Ms. Toad]

22. I saw he was in the hospital

There's no question the worst is still ahead of us. At the current rate, the deaths still look to be between 100,000 and 200,000 (assuming a 5-day delay from peak cases to peak deaths - based on the apparent current lag). But I don't have the confidence in the # of death curve that I do in the # of cases, since this is the first time I've tracked deaths.

But the picture would have been much bleaker, much faster, if we had not managed to flatten the curve. And it is still not clear how flat we have made it.

My curve now looks like a peak on April 20. Ohio is predicting a peak in early May. The flatter we get, the farther out the peak is. (but the overall numbers will be lower - at least in this first wave.)

[Blue_true]

60. I read that British Intelligence believe that Chinese scientists in a lab

Near Wuhan may have accidentally leaked SARS-COV-19 out of a lab. The belief is the lab was studying the virus to prevent future outbreaks and did not take enough precautions, a scientist or technician unknowingly took it into the general population. Interesting charge, to say the least.

What do you think of what Sweden in doing vis a vis the virus. Celebrity has posted OPs of Sweden. There are someon the right arguing that Sweden is doing the right thing and comparing their choice to what was done during the 1918 Pandemic. That train of thought dismisses some features of the 1918 event such as infection rates between interior cities like Saint Louis and coastal ones like San Francisco and Philadelphia as pure coincidence due to troops from the war coming to the coastal cities first to rest up and get well, before going home to inland towns and cities. The1918 Pandemic did go away without a true cure being found, the argument is that herd immunity happened after 2.5%-5.0% of the world's population died, with a much larger number of people being exposed to the virus but staying alive. I don't buy into that theory, but it does have some sound theoretical arguments, as does opposing arguments.

[Ms. Toad]

61. Sweden is not playing with a full deck . . .

Or they have a secret stash of hospitals and equipment.

Given unlimited resources - I still think it is a bad idea, but perhaps defensible. Even with unlimited resources, people will die now who would not necessarily even catch the illness at all if we stretch it out long enough to find a vaccine.

And - no one has unlimited resources. The real threat here is the inabilty to keep people alive long enough to survive it because of limited resources if we all come down with it at once. This is especially true given how long it takes to recover and be able to be removed from the ventilator. Italy has had to choose who gets the ventilator. Without a mandatory stay home, stay healthy order I would not be surprised to see that hapen in Sweden as well.

As to the 1918 pandemic - influenza is different from COVID 19. Even if it is not precisely the same strain, we've all been exposed to close cousins of most of the flus. So there is some natural immunity to influenza viruses. That doesn't exist with COVID 19. So while there are a number of peopel with immunity aready to the flu + those who get it and act as barriers to create a natural slowing effect with the flu (even the 1918 one), there is no reservoir of immune people for COVID 19 - so we have to wait for people to get it and recover and become barricades for new transmissions. It's moving too fast and recovery takes too long for that to be an effective strategy.

[Doodley]

33. The trend might be simply that a little bit more testing becomes available by the day, and

this would mean the increase in positive tests is limited by the overall number of tests. As we get nearer to the capacity of testing sites, we see an ever smaller increase in the number of positive results.

[Ms. Toad]

39. Believe what you want.

I've folllowed this same trend in three countries now. I didn't mention it untl a week ago when I was pretty confident what I was seeing. It has now continued a week past that.

If it was not a real trend, the deaths would have continued to rapidly increase, but they are following a similar downward curve, about 5 days behind the bend in the new cases curve.

[uponit7771]

49. We have less than .5% testing rate per million in the US. Unless we're par with Germany, Hong Kong,

... Greenland, S Korea how do we know we're getting in or out of the soup?

Of course our infection rate goes down when we're not testing enough people in large or medium cities.

Thx in advance for any input on this and VERY much appreciate and follow your numbers

[thucythucy]

56. I'm not a statistician but

it seems to me that the larger the overall number of cases, the larger the increase has to be for the curve not to flatten almost automatically.

That is to say, if on Day 1 you have 100 cases, and Day 2 you have 200, that's a 100% increase over the two days.

But if on Day 1 you have 100,000 cases, and Day 2 you have 99,999 cases, that's less than a 100% increase, so the curve is "flattening."

It's still tremendously bad news, and by no means reason to break out the Champagne.

Just a random observation.

[Takket]

4. i don't understand why that would spark a rally.......

flattening the curve doesn't mean we are anywhere near "out of the woods" and life returning to normal.

[NewsCenter28]

6. Check out the tweet series by Bill Ackman linked to near middle of this article

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

It explains why I think.

[global1]

7. I Thought The Flattening Help Ease The Burden On Hospitals So They.....

weren't slammed with Covid patients all at once. Flattening doesn't mean the virus is abating. Doesn't it just spread out the cases for a longer time - but it makes it easier for the hospitals to care for the patients because ventilators are more available.

[StarryNite]

11. That was my understanding as well.

People are going to think they can let their guard down way too soon. It will backfire.

[triron]

12. It means it is spreading more slowly. Good news.

[TheBlackAdder]

15. Which means we have to stay in an indefinite stay-at-home mode, which will destroy small business.

[Blue_true]

20. You touched on the button.

The only thing that brings the markets out of a nose dive is something that stops the virus medically, social distancing and stay at home aren't it.

[uponit7771]

42. THIS !!!! People should be looking at bottoming out the infection rate to get back to normal

[Ms. Toad]

24. Likely to hit the same total number -

But likely to be fewer now - with the balance coming in a second wave. (Per the Imperial College of London model)

But you are correct about the primary purpose/effect.

[Demovictory9]

37. yes, part of what we are doing by staying home, is avoiding being a burden on hospital system

[Steelrolled]

28. It's all about expectation of the future

and if the expected outlook improves, then prices go up.

What we know is that ultimately the stock market will recover and hit new highs - it has since its inception. It is a matter of time. Just like in 2009, there are a lot of people holding cash and waiting for the signal to start moving back in. It is always a balance between the emotions of fear and greed.

[uponit7771]

43. A flat curve helps the hospitals not the economy or normality. We're at Indefinite stay at home ..

... isn't good either

[RandySF]

8. Beware of stats that come out over weekends.

Last edited Sun Apr 5, 2020, 11:31 PM - Edit history (1)

[PubliusEnigma]

9. Massive?!?

[triron]

13. knr

[katusha]

14. This is a bull trap IMHO

i think we will continue to see bad news, remember FuckTrump is in charge of the federal govt.

[Ms. Toad]

23. Even if Obama were to magically be placed in charge,

there would continue to be bad news. We started testing and social distancing (necessary once community spread started) too late to prevent massive infection and death. It is considerably better than what we were heading for - but will still be surreal to watch both the number of cases and the number of deaths grow.

But we are on the path to preventing our health care system from being overwhelmed, and from our healthare professionals having to make the decision about who gets lifesaving equipment.

[katusha]

30. i'm sorry, let me clarify

i am referring to just the economic response to the crises, not the pandemic. even if we see good news on the virus, he gonna muck up the stimulus etc. and make it worse, he can't help himself. Trump's economic team is Kudlow, Navarro, and Mnuchin. maybe Kushner depending on the day of the week. Obama had Geitner, Summers, and Romer.
i hope you are right on health care system. it scares me.

[Ms. Toad]

31. Agree - both as to Trump, and as to how scary the health care system overload is. n/t

[uponit7771]

44. +1, A flat curve helps the hospitals not the economy or normality

[Hugin]

18. This is the pump part of the pump & dump cycle...

The dump is on Fridays.

If you buy into it, you will lose.

[Yavin4]

29. This is 100% true.

Remember, people bought into the market when it was setting records over the past three years. They need to prop up the prices to get some of these people out. So, make it look like it's going up, and then quietly sell off. They have to unwind these huge positions.

Also, our economy is severely damaged. It's not going to snap back into shape all at once. it will take years to recover from this. Years.

[Hugin]

34. Thanks, Yavin4.

You said it much more clearly than I ever could.

[grantcart]

21. Investor Daily calls it dangerous

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-stock-market-rally-riskier-than-coronavirus-stock-market-crash/

Dow Jones Futures Jump; Why This Stock Market Rally Is More Dangerous Than The Coronavirus Market Crash


Also don't see the leveling you are talking about

Yes the numbers in Washington and California are good

but the numbers in PA IL and Mass are terrible

1000 new cases in PA today alone?


In any case even if they do flatten we cannot return to normal activity until there is massive testing or the whole stay at home affair has been a waste.

[Hugin]

35. There are a whole lot of unknowns in this pandemic...

But, it's not that how pandemics work is unknown.

Trends matter, but, not all that much.

This isn't over until the last person who has the active disease has been clear for an estimated two weeks... A single person out of around Six Billion (or 330 Million if you choose to only look at the US). If we go back to 'normal' before then, this disease will flare up again and again. It's a 'living' creature and infection is it's reproductive strategy.
In fact, it's all it does. It wants to survive and it's very good at surviving.

[uponit7771]

45. THIS !!!! We should...NOT ... look at ""the curve" in aggregate.

[CountAllVotes]

27. buy buy buy buy buy!!

buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy
buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy
buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy
buy buy buy buy buy
buy buy
bye!

[uponit7771]

46. A flat curve helps the hospitals not the economy or normality

[Demovictory9]

36. good news. daily new cases plunged from 33K to 25K. For one day at least

[uponit7771]

48. Where? Nationwide? I don't see how that helps. Trump is right in that if Small Town Idaho has zero

... infections (after testing) they're in the clear but he's wrong in lifting the ban if Smaller Town Idaho has 50% infections and there's no travel ban between the two cities.

[Roland99]

55. Same as last SUNDAY

Appears some reporting doesn’t happen on SUNDAY

[Demovictory9]

57. yikes... the media is behaving this morning as if the worst is over

didnt notice that sunday pattern

[Vivienne235729]

38. Flattening curve? WHERE? S. Korea? Bc I'm hearing the opposite here. As in it is imminent.

This coming week start expecting a tick upwards on the acceleration of #deaths/day. And they're not talking about NY.

[uponit7771]

47. +1, We should...NOT ... look at ""the curve" in aggregate.

[Chainfire]

51. My crystal ball says

That there is going to be an early return to the market, followed by a early return to work, resulting in an early return to the virus. Second verse, same as the first.


You have to keep in mind that the value of the markets is all psychological. It is a struggle between faith and fear, based on greed.
The psychology will always be a variable. The whole source of the downturn in the economy is the virus, until it is beaten nothing really changes and the markets will remain volatile.

This thing is not over until we have a vaccine and or effective treatment. Trump may well turn his "light at the end of the tunnel" into the proverbial train.

[uponit7771]

52. +1, can you imagine the reaction when Trump says 2 more weeks at the end of April?

[randr]

54. Predatory class salivating over possible monitary gains

Lust for wealth never so blatantly exposed.

[ck4829]

58. I'm not sure if the Dow can be trusted on this sort of thing...

[mshasta]

59. lets wait for red states