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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsStarting to look like we may be under 100K US deaths given most up to date modeling.
A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought.
The University of Washingtons Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531.
The model, which has been cited by the White House, relies on numbers from China, Italy, Spain, and areas around the U.S. The change in prediction is due to a massive infusion of new data, IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release.
This is fantastic news. It's been clear to me for a while that the exponential trend was fading.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths.html
stillcool
(32,626 posts)dalton99a
(81,068 posts)crickets
(25,896 posts)Spot on.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)If the virus has heavily infected an area, lack of testing could increase deaths.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,746 posts)The test kills?
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)By not testing adequately, there would be little sense of how many people are walking around transmitting, so there would likely not be actions like stay at home orders, allowing more people to get infected, some of whom die.
blitzen
(4,572 posts)the Lancet study from last week emphasized this in no uncertain terms. I and others posted links to that study several times. I don't feel like doing it again but will dig up a link if someone wants to see it.
Not to mention that lack of testing is and obstacle to tracking and containment, which we could have done--and there would have been far fewer deaths. LACK OF TESTING KILLS.
Response to blitzen (Reply #90)
blitzen This message was self-deleted by its author.
Bettie
(15,998 posts)many deaths are not attributed to Covid19.
That's a win for Trump and his minions.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)does keep the SARS-COV-19 numbers lower than they should be.
brush
(53,474 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Do you know better than them?
brush
(53,474 posts)don't really know how many are infected and passing it on to others so how can they project? Florida, Lousiana, Michthey're all blowing up.
I have to tell you I'm skeptical.
Eyeball_Kid
(7,410 posts)... to assume that deaths will zero out after this FIRST WAVE of the virus. Remember, if there is no vaccine, the virus will erupt over and over. It will mutate and it will devour lives well beyond August. Without everyone getting tested on demand (Remember, because someone tests negative today doesn't mean that they can't get infected TOMORROW.), we know next to nothing about CV-19. We don't know its limitations, we don't know its behavior.
Squinch
(50,774 posts)mid March, before social distancing etc. And their numbers haven't changed much since then.
I begin to suspect that they are something that has been set up to confirm the numbers that result from no testing, and that Filthy Donnie and republicans will quote those numbers for years to come.
Forward thinking of them.
But I keep seeing this site quoted, and it always shows insanely low numbers, and it always gets people excited.
I don't believe it.
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Not enough testing.
Big push on on to "reopen country." Chase traders were ordered to report back to trading floor unless they could produce note.
No. Just no!
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,355 posts)Also, where's the increased testing? How will we know who and when is safe to go back out? Once everybody starts going back out, then what?
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Eyeball_Kid
(7,410 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)to take action to contain the disease, but wonder how the current estimated cost-benefit ratios are looking to them. Seems like a lot more would be lost economically than gained. Or would it? What were/are their goals?
Eyeball_Kid
(7,410 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)They'll have secret "rationales," and those were what I was thinking of. That old search for "why," and "there must be a reason."
But.
Squinch
(50,774 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I don't believe that is accurate.
Squinch
(50,774 posts)Captain Stern
(2,197 posts)It doesn't.
The link in the post you linked to predicts about 81k deaths in our country by July. The link the current OP shows has roughly the same number of deaths predicted by August. That's a big difference. (Not as big a difference as there is between months and weeks, but a big difference nevertheless)
Squinch
(50,774 posts)site for while now and the number they have predicted - even before social distancing - has never changed by much.
And why would they change the duration of their estimate? You don't find that odd?
Captain Stern
(2,197 posts)That's the whole darn point of what we're trying to do with social distancing.
The whole point of all this is to spread the amount of infections, and deaths, over as long a period of time as possible.
That appears to be what's happening.
Squinch
(50,774 posts)On March 20, they almost exactly estimated today's total death toll. They are accounting for social distancing.
I think their numbers are much more dependable than the OP's site.
Kaleva
(36,146 posts)"Though the update of the model appears to be good news, at least for now, Murray counseled caution. If social-distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow, he said."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths.html
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Kablooie
(18,571 posts)They told him it would probably be under 100,000 so he inflated the numbers so the actual numbers will look like a great success.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)In no universe is 80,000 preventable deaths a success.
dalton99a
(81,068 posts)Obama wanted the number to be maximum!!!!"
Just watch
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,355 posts)is that some people will fall for it. Nobody wants a high death toll (at all) but we can't let Trump evade accountability for his role in mismanaging his part in this once this is all said and done.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)There is no situation in which Redhats will admit he's failed.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,355 posts)More like the low-information voters whom might be persuaded to believe it.
doc03
(35,148 posts)with his death chart. I think they inflated the numbers so anything less he can claim he stopped it.
ProfessorGAC
(64,425 posts)The numbers the real experts are predicting with measures taken are probably 75-100k.
So, for DOLTUS, 100K is the bottom, now.
Voltaire2
(12,626 posts)There are lots of people who think we will have multiple waves of the pandemic until we reach some level of herd immunity from either exposure or vaccination.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)If you look at S. Korea's numbers.
If this study as at all right it gives us a real shot to mimic them and get back to mostly normal sooner rather than later.
Voltaire2
(12,626 posts)We did not.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Once the numbers come down a bit.
Voltaire2
(12,626 posts)the scale of untested infections would make it massively difficult to apply.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)1) Implement on level of state or large municipality. If each zone has ~1k new cases a day or less (S. Koreas) approach should work (thats ~their worst day).
2) treat import from other cities/states as a noise process.
Infection is a memory less process for the most part so the recent history of large numbers of cases shouldnt have outside impact. Even if not perfect policy should make a dent.
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)~end of transmission~
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)More of the country may have been practicing social distancing without any kind of state-level official guidance.
kpete
(71,901 posts)Americans are staying home
potus has little to do with that
but he will take credit anyway
& the media will fall in step
Stay well & sane
kp
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)clutterbox1830
(395 posts)A number of coroners are listing the death due to COVID-19 due to lack of testing available.
spanone
(135,635 posts)meanwhile tests are STILL hard to find and I credit that directly to the 'president'.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)I don't think a whole lot of people are going to say, "What, only 62,000 dead? Great job, in that case! Could have been worse!"
Most will have known somebody who died. If that's the grift Trump is running, it's a poor grift indeed.
yardwork
(61,418 posts)underpants
(182,279 posts)spinbaby
(15,073 posts)Im hunkered down, but I know too many people who need to go to Starbucks for a daily cappuccino or need to visit six stores to get their favorite kind of canned soup, etc, etc.
nolabear
(41,915 posts)And the UW is the first place to study the effects of the pandemic, the first to have a peak and to marshal resources in a changing manner as we go along and theyre working night and day to try to develop accurate projections according to data that changes.
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)Extrapolating like that is optimistic and might even be propaganda in that sense. Calm the masses and the markets.
While we would all hope that the carnage of this virus will be low and diminish quickly, we really aren't even seeing the big picture yet due to the amount of tests and the bigger factor of spread into Red and rural areas and how many deaths that might cause. There are various factors that play into the mortality rate of that demographic in a case like this and that includes, age, general health, access to health care, obesity and chronic diseases.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)doc03
(35,148 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(107,106 posts)SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Squinch
(50,774 posts)Squinch
(50,774 posts)March 23. That is the day NYC schools closed, so I figure that's the day we began to slow down. So figuring from there that the doubling takes twice as long (I think right now it's doubling about every 8 days, but that took some time for us to get to.)
That means it's doubled twice more since March 23, which brings us to over 400,000 deaths.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Thomas Hurt
(13,903 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,369 posts)Lets look at the numbers in 2-4 weeks and see how the South is doing...
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)logme
(27 posts)I noticed the continuous decrease of total death projected and kept my fingers crossed. Although I was slightly skeptical at first due to the tragic acceleration we had in Europe last week.
I just checked their data for the countries that have been battling a large scale pandemic the longest ( France, Italy, Spain ) and there are equally optimistic, when the death in Italy suddenly reached 15000, I really thought they would end up with a death toll between 20-30 thousand at the very least but their model ( that has been pretty accurate over the last few days ) anticipate a stabilization around 20 thousand.
Again finger crossed, and lets not relax the prevention efforts. It is not done yet.
JT45242
(2,173 posts)Let's be brutally honest here. The only reason why the official numbers are so low is that countless (literally uncounted) people have died from coronavirus and were no tested to confirm the diagnosis. On top of that, there are reports that many who had tested positive are not being recorded.
This will only become apparent much later when some people who do statistical modeling will be able to look at the normal death rate and compare it to the data for spring and summer 2020. Only then will we have an 'approximate' but close number similar to the way that they modeled the deaths caused by the hurricanes in Puerto Rico.
If we do not scream this loud enough, the lies will get larger... see I told you under 100,000 would be a success -- more deadly than Vietnam Private Bone Spurs is not a success -- but the sheeple listening to Fox and RW Radio will believe it. Then around 2022 some statistical wizard will have worked out that coronavirus deaths were likely XXX times larger than reported because the death rate went from Y to Z during those 6 months.
Fox and the RW Radio Limbaugh niuts will decry it as propaganda against the GOP and then say that you can't trust math or scientists anyway.
This is the plan -- lie tell bigger lies -- cover it up in the hopes that the sheeple will keep McConnell and at least 50 other (R) in the senate.
Of course, killing off democratic voters in Wisconsin will likely help that plan as well. But that is a different rant.
MenloParque
(505 posts)While dumb fucks elsewhere where partying it up during Mardi Gras and partying on the beaches. We had some Darwin Award participants also, but many have been publicly shamed. BUT we are successfully flattened the curve - so far. We have sent out ventilators to states with more Darwin Award participants.
dpibel
(2,803 posts)End of Mardi Gras: February 25.
Newsome calls for shelter in place: March 19.
In what world is March 19 "during Mardi Gras."
I entirely commend Newsome for acting early. It clearly has saved lives.
But pretending that the same information and advice was available in February as in mid-March is fatuous nonsense.
Hekate
(90,195 posts)ismnotwasm
(41,921 posts)Washington state has done an incredible job
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)So, we might as well get ready for trumpsters declaring victory.
Fact is, if infections and deaths stopped tomorrow, trump would still be a failure at this and more.
bluestarone
(16,722 posts)The tRUMP team a permit to KILL 75 to 80,0000 citizens and SAY we all did a great job!
Takket
(21,425 posts)Tribetime
(4,670 posts)mackdaddy
(1,520 posts)The rate of increase has slowed some, but we have been seeing a 10 fold increase every 14 days which would put us over 100k by the 21st of this month. With some of the early peaking that may take a bit longer to reach the 100k deaths.
But with so many Southern states and Rural areas that have done little to nothing for social distancing until the last few days, we are just a week or two from them blowing up.
Also even if we "peak" in NY and Washington, it will be many days of deaths at ore near that peak number before the number of deaths per day really drop off.
We are not getting out of this Hell for some time yet.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)Yeah, hes going to be attacked.
I come back an hour later and sure enough! DUs own pop up chief epidemiologist-panic addict-doomsayer even managed 5-6 posts in the thread.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)80k preventable deaths is nightmarish enough. I have no interest in living through an apocalypse.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)Though I sense a bit of Stockholm syndrome unfolding with some.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)there is a bit of a thrill in presuming we are in a Mad Max moment.
I'm not sure it's conscious but the idea that we can ever get back to "business as usual" might be construed as a defense of a status quo they want overturned.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)scrabblequeen40
(334 posts)I hope someone you know isn't in that number the GOP is celebrating.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)albacore
(2,387 posts)Articles all over the media are pointing out that rural areas are under-reporting... not testing the dead. Same with big cities.
https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths
malaise
(267,823 posts)negligent homicide - lock him up!
blitzen
(4,572 posts)That will tell the story of how the US fared in relation to other nations.
This "much lower death toll than projected" is a bullshit stat that Trump will try to exploit all the way to re-election. The media is falling for it big time today.
logme
(27 posts)Hi, actually deaths per millions pop will not be much more "accurate" either.
+ We will not be able to know exactly what the main other co-morbidity factors are right away.
The only thing we know currently is that the more systematic the tests are ( or if not possible, the more respected the confinement is), the better a country should fair.
In Europe only Germany was lucky enough to have the pertinent industrial resources still located on its territory enabling them to avoid almost any PE shortage. Even then, they are also struggling to fully contain the pandemic.
The percentage of elderly is one other important criteria. If you look at Europe : France, Spain and Italy have the highest density of centenarians in the EU.
Overall you can therefore expect many European countries to have a higher death rate per x inhabitant than Asia or America.
Note > Share of the population over 80 ( countries with early cases of covi-19 in bold ) :
- 5% : Italy, Germany, Spain, France
- 3% : Canada, United States
- 2% : Korea, Rep, Russian Federation
- 1% or less : China
It does not mean that proper planning and management will not improve or decreasing the odds but the age structures, density of the population and their habits ( such as the prevalence of smokers for instance ) will certainly result in huge variation in mortality rates.
A higher mortality will not necessarily mean a lacking management of the crisis. For instance you could say that many of the elderly dying from covid in Italy are people who tend to already be dead ( at a younger age ) in many countries such as the US ( life expectancy Italy = 82.5 vs USA = 78.7 ).
The exact impact of the covid and the proper evaluation of each county policies will take at least a year or two probably more. It will still be up to debate during the US election for instance.
Nota bene : It is important, to understand that the capacity of some countries to maintain what is know seen as strategic industrial asset & production on their territory is not the result of better insights or preparedness either but rather a by-product of random industrial specialization.
How governments then mobilized said resources & responded to shortages is what make a difference.
Some countries due to their resources & of the specificity of their population should fare better then others.
The USA as one of the youngest among the advanced industrial nations still have a clear advantage, no matter how much you feel trump screw it up.
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)The new projection for total deaths nation-wide is 60,415
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)They are going to undershoot today significantly. They did not update their parameters yesterday fwiw. Error bars are gigantic too.
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)Yes... they have large margins for error at the high and low end... but if anything, that's because some recent numbers have fallen out of the bottom of their bars (particularly in hospitalizations and ICU projections).
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Thats what, about 20% error?
Its not awful but need to see if they undershoot again tomorrow.
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)Still 1,940 vs a projected 1,903.
Today is projected at 2,037
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)They appear to be pretty dialed in.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)And looks like they back fit the older predictions so I cant compare the numbers now sadly.
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)I'd say there's enough data to evaluate how the ~60k projection is tracking. They were not 300-400 under on Wednesday and did not undershoot substantially on any of the days since then... in fact, they have been slightly high with one exception (~125 off on the 10th).
Yesterday's figure (1,528) came in well below their projection (1,910) and while today's figure (projected at 1,895) is still compiling, New York reportedly dropped another 10% from yesterday and none of the states I've seen so far have topped yesterday's toll. They didn't project numbers in the 1500 range until the 19th or 20th. Anything close to that could cause another downward revision.
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)people will start dying again.
Azathoth
(4,603 posts)Last edited Wed Apr 8, 2020, 03:32 PM - Edit history (1)
They have us peaking in two or three days and then being down to almost no cases/deaths by the beginning of May.
Italy has been on full countrywide lockdown for over a month and their deaths are just *slowly* crossing the peak now. And most of their cases are centralized in one region.
Much of this country still isn't fully shut down. And we have out of control outbreaks from coast to coast.
The peaks they're fitting to our numbers seem awfully narrow.
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)Yet their projections keep getting revised lower as actual numbers on the ground come in well below their projections.
IOW... they haven't been optimistic so far.
LaurenOlimina
(1,165 posts)A HERETIC I AM
(24,320 posts)And I know that's not the case, far from it.
But someone from the 'Fox News' end of things, could take a cursory look at a thread like this and say we are dismissing good news.
I say, no, that's not it all all.
I think most of us realize attempting to nail down any real figures at this point in the pandemic is a fools errand, and are offering logic to temper the glee.
That just struck me, that's all. We often wonder how and why the opposition gets some of the bullshit "They're cheering for defeat" kind of nonsense.
This thread, read uncarefully, is a good example.
fishwax
(29,146 posts)for many reasons, including that we're still not testing as much as we should and we're likely already drastically underestimating current casualties.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Not a huge change.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)herding cats
(19,549 posts)It appears if we take it seriously from here forward they will be. While, I'm not sure about my state (some nutty statements today) I'm feeling better about many others.
Good luck to all my fellow Americans!
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)But it only computes deaths till August. The moment we stop...bam. Unless summer does have sone positive effect .
Mariana
(14,849 posts)once Republican governors start lifting the closure orders prematurely.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)if we stay in lockdown in high numbers until there is a vaccine.
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)is developed, not how many die between now and August.
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)The purpose of their projections is to inform public policy decision making. They're reportedly developing multiple models to evaluate what the impact would be of various flavors of "opening up", but I don't see how anyone could model what you're looking for.
DangerousRhythm
(2,916 posts)Found this one among my many open tabs and sighed.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)It presumed wed all lock down and social distance till August. That was obviously a bad assumption.
That said what does seem interesting is that the exponential trend always peters out quickly. Communities start getting hit with consequences and they adopt better practices. Then things get better and they forget. Lather, rinse, repeat.