Let's not ease up on distancing and isolation just yet. 1800 CV deaths today.

[brush]

This is an excerpt from a WAPO story.

The United States on Tuesday reported more than 1,800 coronavirus-related fatalities, a new one-day high, with some states still to release their totals.

At this rate we'll reach 100k or more easily

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/07/coronavirus-latest-news/

[Iliyah]

1. Next couple of weeks . . .

as states like NY, NJ, and others will hopefully reach a peak/curve.

But alas, there will be other states which may be weeks behind them. California's peak/curve sometime at the end of April, beginning of May (maybe).

I personally never thought we, the world go thru this in my lifetime. I've read about the Pandemics throughout history. But I never thought I would live through one.

Stay safe and I do pray for all . . .

[ProfessorGAC]

2. Perspective On 1,736 per Day

The RWNJ were bleating early on about Obama & the swine flu, and 12,400 people died, and we didn't shut down..blah, blah, blah.
At 1,736 per day, one week is 12,152 deaths.
Swine flu took 60 weeks of deaths to get to where this could get in a week, and we already had 9,000 when this week started!

[brush]

4. Huh?

[Igel]

5. Perhaps.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america has usually given too large a number for its prediction. It's reduced its prediction, but still the large few days have come under what it said most likely.

Today may be an exception, but there's often noticeable random variation in the curve that smooths out over the course of 4-5 days.

I have to wonder about the IMHE ventilator-requirement numbers compared to reality. So for IL IMHE predicts a need of under 2k ventilators. 1575, to be precise (which is a foolishly precise number, but that's the nature of the math--you write down the number while saying that there's a margin of error there that's not included).

Eerily, https://chicago.cbslocal.com/coronavirus-tracking-available-icu-beds-and-ventilators-in-illinois-during-the-outbreak/ said that as of 4/6 IL had 1593 not in current use. I'd want more as a hedge, but I'd be happy with 200 more with the knowledge that there's a pile of a thousand of them somewhere in case they were necessary--which would be obvious with 48-72 hours' notice. A lot of the difficulty would be just redistributing what's already in state.

That's how a lot of the estimates are going, though. Everybody is using worst-case numbers but it's really unlikely (calculatably unlikely) that everything will come up worst case. In some ways ventilators are a kind of talisman.