Covid-19 being undercounted: States don't count deaths unless confirmed by a test

[ffr]

Otherwise the deaths are categorized as an influenza-like illness.

Link to tweet

Michigan’s COVID-19 death toll is undercounted. So some want to test the dead.

[greyl]

1. I hope the red states don't provide a second apex. nt

[Jamastiene]

2. My county in NC does not have any cases yet. The counties around us

have very few. It is a rural area, BUT people are going about business as usual here. The last time I did go out, they were standing around in the grocery store talking about how praying is keeping it away and keeping everyone safe even if it does hit here. They are going to rely on prayer instead of following the guidelines.

Since then, if anything, going by the number of cars I hear going up and down the road, which is MUCH more than usual, and the neighbors I see having large get-togethers, it is not going to be pretty when it does hit here. So, I am afraid your hopes may be dashed. I'm staying home, but I hear cars going up and down the roads more than ever before. On weekends, I hear the loud car stereos going as more cars than usual are going up and down the road. So, basically, people are partying and going about life as usual, only with more spare time to socialize. And socializing, they are.

[renate]

4. Do you think it's social pressure or Fox or both or something else?

Even their god is taking it seriously, finally. Why, would you guess, aren’t they?

[Jamastiene]

5. It is how the people here are.

The majority of the people here are like that. They think they are immune to everything, because they run together and bully everyone else around them. They always have. It is a rural area. The local newspaper reports news about 5 to 6 days after it happens. Whatever in mainstream music that is popular nationwide, doesn't hit here until about 5 to 6 YEARS later. Even then, if it isn't another form of country, metal or gospel, forget it. It won't "take" so to speak. The majority will not like it, if it is not the same as the last thing they heard.

It is a place set in its ways. It is rural and impoverished enough that it is like a small country unto its own, separate from the rest of the country. It's just a weird vibe and weird way how things work here. There are around 200 churches in this county alone. We don't even have a city in this county with above 11k people in it and that is the largest city here. The rest of the towns here are less than 1/2 that amount. Some towns here have less than 200 people.

Stephen King couldn't dream up and describe a place like this or write a story as horrifying as how horrifying the amount of stupidity here truly is. I graduated with people who cannot read. They sit around here and brag on not reading. One will say they haven't read a book since high school. Another will say they haven't read a book since x grade. The "winner" is the one who says they never even learned to read. They pride themselves on that.

[lostnfound]

12. And yet NC has fine colleges and the very educated Triangle. Weird. Nt

[Jamastiene]

13. Those are the more populated cities and nicer areas you are talking about.

The rest of the state, outside the bigger cities, is responsible for half the worst Republicans, even now, higher up in the Republican Party and right there with Trump too. Republicans don't run this state because of voters in Raleigh Durham or Chapel Hill. They do because of all of the smaller towns that make up the majority of the population of this state.

[pat_k]

10. Has not detected any cases. NC has only tested 40 per 10,000.

No cases detected doesn't mean there are no cases.

The state doing the best on testing is still pretty dismal (NY at about 175 per 10,000 -- more than 4 times the rate of NC)

Less densely populated areas will not be hit as hard, but without social distancing they will be hit.

Stay safe!

[Jamastiene]

14. I have been watching the healthmap.org site in real time.

Just the other day, the county next to me to my west got 3 cases and there are two cases in the county to my south as of day before yesterday. So, it's edging closer. I dread it. It will get here later and be a clusterfuck. After everyone else in the world is back to business as usual, this area will be a total clusterfuck. Everything hits here later and no one cares. It is even that way with the weather. Charlotte stations get all upset with tornadoes hitting them and almost all of the smaller towns to the east of them, until it gets to us. They stand with their asses over us on the map and once it hits us, they quit covering it. So, when it does hit my county, no one will care. We are on our own.

[pat_k]

15. Overcoming denial has been the biggest challenge in this. (nt)

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. In the end, the actual death toll will be determined by looking at the excess of

deaths over the normal number.

In normal times, about 7500 people die every day in this country. From all of the many possible causes of death. While that's an average number, and sometimes it's more and sometimes it's less, it's a good baseline to work from. It will be a bit tricky, given that right now I'm guessing somewhat fewer people are dying from car accidents, and I have no idea what those numbers normally are. Clearly we're not having mass shootings, although as terrible as they are, they really aren't a significant number overall.

I do recall reading that at some point, some years ago, when there was some kind of strike (doctors? nurses? cleaning staff? Can't recall which employee group it was) at a hospital, deaths went down. Hmmm. Isn't that interesting.

However, back to the Covid 19 deaths. As I said above, the final death toll from the virus will be figured out by looking at the excess deaths above the normal number of deaths.

[pat_k]

11. Yes. After-the-fact analyses will paint a different picture.

After-the-fact analyses will not only reveal a higher death toll; they will demonstrate how early the virus was circulating -- and killing -- undetected because of Trump's decimation of the executive branch and blanket denial and obstruction throughout January and February.

Timeline: What could have been vs. What was.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

6. This is why the Grotesque Orange Pustule does not want widespread testing.

[DeminPennswoods]

7. Afaik, death certificates

list the actual cause of death, then also list at the first contributing cause. Jmo, but it's probably hard to pinpoint the exact cause of death (outside of car accident, gun shot, etc.), especially if there are long term known underlying health issues.

[Tracyjo]

8. At the end of February I remember reading that

flu deaths were up sixty-some percent this year.

[pat_k]

9. Yep.

Posted this back on March 30 (emphasis added)

Here in the US, the count of deaths is low because we didn't even have a reliable test available until mid-late Feb, and it wasn't until the second week of March that states actually had access and capacity to ramp up testing at all. During this period, hospital admissions with COVID-19-like symptoms were presumed to be positive and treated as such (with protective equipment, etc). In cases that resulted in death, the diagnosis was sometimes (perhaps very often) never confirmed and so the cases weren't counted. (No real data on this. Just scattered reports from health care personnel.)

But, even with that issue, reporting of the number of deaths is far closer to reality than the obscenely limited testing to detect cases.
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