I just read an article on a paper that accurately predicted COVID-19 on January 3--of 2013!

[DFW]

Back then, it wasn't called COVID-19, since it was just a theoretical article, though by medical experts. The "virus-to-come" was called "Modi-SARS," or a modified bird flu.

It was presented to the German government on January 3, 2013. It got buried in a pile of other publications delivered to the Government. If anyone in the government actually read it, no such person has as yet come forward to say so.

It warned of three waves of infections before a reliable vaccine was developed. The title page translates out to "Information from the Federal Government," with the subheading, "Report on risk analysis of population protection 2012." Subject: Virus danger from the Corona family.

Predictions were: "Modi-SARS [would] come from Southeast Asia, where infections originating in wild animals would find their way to humans via open air markets. It would come to Germany via a trade fair city (e.g. Hannover) in the north and a university city (e.g. München or Tübingen) in the south. It would be spread by mini droplets (breath, coughing) and symptoms would be "fever, dry coughing, shortness of breath, chills and nausea."

Infections would quickly spread in Asia, Europe and North America. Measures to combat it would be: "Isolation of the sick, quarantine for contact persons, Hygiene, school closings, cancellation of large gatherings. Basic rights would be curtailed: Personal freedom, right of assembly."

Medical care "would break down" since there are only 500,000 hospital beds nationwide (still talking about Germany). Shortages would crop up in medicine, protective clothing, and disinfectants." The economy goes into a tailspin.

The whole article can be read in the April 2 issue of "STERN." It is by Hans-Ulrich Jörges. Maybe they have an English language edition somewhere? It's worth finding.

By the way, the article lays out the whole scenario so far with frightening accuracy. We had REALLY better hope the worst predictions do NOT come to pass (since everything else predicted HAS come to pass). They include: 29 million infected in the first wave, 23 million in the second wave, and 26 million in the third wave. This makes up just about the whole population of Germany. It says one per cent of infants and teenagers will die, as will half of infected people over 65, due to mutations causing repeated infections.

The article ends with a quote from the president of the highly respected Robert Koch Institute: "The report was received very favorably." The article then says, "really? By whom?"

[Squinch]

1. Zomg! That's astonishing. Did they say anything about the timing of the waves?

(It does seem clear that this WILL go in waves.)

[DFW]

2. It did indeed. I didn't translate that part

It predicted three waves over three years, and no effective vaccine available to the whole country until then.

Here is a link to the whole article:https://www.stern.de/p/plus/kolumnen/schon-vor-jahren-analysierten-experten-die-folgen-einer-pandemie--daraus-folgte---nichts--9206180.html

[Squinch]

19. That sounds logical to me. We're in for the long haul.

[TomVilmer]

3. Question was never IF, but WHEN?

This is from an European Union report in 2015:
Dedicated 'EUSurveys' on the preparedness to detect, identify, confirm and manage patients with suspect or confirmed Ebola Virus Disease, MERS-coronavirus patients and cases of new avian influenza strains have been carried out at the occasion of the EU coordination and management of specific events, which has shown a good level of preparedness of Member States.

In Denmark we prepared by selling our best medical research lab and closing down the emergency hospital kits.

But... we cannot prepare for everything. Just wait until a magnetic burp from the sun fritz all the satellites. There are always blame enough for everybody. Though this hopefully well end the Just-In-Time manufacturing strategy, where one sunken freighter can fully stop production of essential goods.

[DFW]

7. Det er sikkert

(Jeg forstår dansk, men jeg forstår svensk bedre)

While it would have been unrealistic to expect any country to have been on full red alert for the current situation, Trump's strategy of sticking his head in the sand until it was too late was not exactly helpful.

[oldsoftie]

4. Hell, BUSH gave a speech on it in 2005!! Trump ignores ANYTHING prior to him taking office.

There have been plans in place for many years. He's ignored all of it

[Ani Yun Wiya]

5. Is there a paywall or a membership requirement?

N/T

[DFW]

9. To what, specifically? n/t

[Ani Yun Wiya]

20. The article posted in your #2 in this thread

I tried to get the page translated and it ended up truncated...

[MFM008]

6. Ours

Probably came from Europe
The UK or Italy....

[DFW]

8. I suspect it came from both ends

Asia and Europe at the same time

[BadgerKid]

10. Two waves isn't surprising.

Probably yet this year as quarantines are relaxed. Certainly a grim outlook, based on OP's summary.

[Pacifist Patriot]

11. An English-language Finnish journal has an article about it.

https://www.foreigner.fi/articulo/coronavirus/germany-s-2012-covid-scenario-became-real/20200325014404004958.html

[DFW]

14. The report is now being resurrected, apparently

"Oh, look what we didn't pay any attention to in 2013!"

My wife says that since members of the government get dozens of these every week, they can't read them all, and probably dismissed this report as the fantasies of someone who had read one too many Michael Crighton novels.

[Pacifist Patriot]

16. Your wife makes a good point.

[DFW]

17. She usually does

She allows me one or two a week, if I don't get too greedy.

[Pacifist Patriot]

18. Ha ha!!!

[bobbieinok]

12. Thank you for posting about German prediction--distressingly accurate

[DFW]

15. No doubt blown off as sensationalist sci-fi crap at the time

Assuming anyone read it at all!

[defacto7]

13. Kick & R