DER SPIEGEL asks: Are we witnessing the implosion of a superpower?

[kpete]

How Trump Is Fueling a Corona Disaster

Donald Trump’s disastrous crisis management has made the United States the new epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic. The country is facing an unprecedented economic crash. Are we witnessing the implosion of a superpower? By DER SPIEGEL Staff

.............

Is the world witnessing the collapse of a superpower? Is the U.S. facing a "Suez” moment, as Washington-based political scientist Rush Doshi puts it? In the fall of 1956, Egypt won the conflict over the Suez Canal, thus demonstrating to the world that the days of the British Empire were finally a relic of the past.

The end of the American era has often been evoked, but the signs of crisis have never been as clear as they are now. Although the virus began its spread at a market selling exotic animals in Wuhan, China has become the first country to contain the pandemic. It is now airlifting simple, but nevertheless scarce products to the U.S.: fever thermometers, masks and protective gowns.

A Shift in the Balance of Power?
The airlift from Shanghai to New York is a gesture of solidarity, but also a deft PR move. The image of Beijing providing relief to the U.S. the way it would to a developing country is intended to demonstrate the shift in the global balance of power: The American patient is being cared for by the strict, but kind Chinese doctor.

.............

Incredibly interesting point of view:
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-american-patient-how-trump-is-fueling-a-corona-disaster-a-024a5cc9-2c07-419a-a351-67837b47f6bb

[Cyrano]

1. One maniac/asshole, 3 1/2 years. So hard to build. So easy to destroy.

[c-rational]

19. Everything the dumpster touches dies.

[Fritz Walter]

33. Everything is going according to Putin's plan

Vlad has wanted to bring us down to the third-world level, and Cantaloupe Caligula has been very instrumental in making that happen!

We must not only survive this situation, but continue our efforts to unseat the Puppet Of The United States. And all his GOP cronies.

This pandemic situation highlights the urgency and importance of getting out the vote between now and November. We must actively oppose their efforts to disenfranchise Democratic voters in every precinct and state!

[smirkymonkey]

2. K&R

Four more years of this clown and we will be a third-world shithole. I guarantee it.

[enough]

3. Yes. It's not Trump alone. It's the Republican Party using Trump's presidency

to enact every large-scale policy agenda they have been working for for decades.

[grumpyduck]

4. Yep.

It's not just him. He would be nowhere without Moscow Mitch and a bunch of other pricks who have enabled him. They all need to be held up to the spotlight and exposed for what they are. Unfortunately, they don't generate nearly as much ad revenue for the MSM as that piece of excrement in the Oval Office.

[MyOwnPeace]

6. You got THAT right!

And let us be the first to say:

THANKS, DONNIE!!!!

[cornball 24]

38. It's the deal made in hell! Malignant Mitch and his scumbags get what they want as a

trade-off while the idiot in chief pollutes the airwaves.

[DENVERPOPS]

26. The U.S. Senate Republicons

are THE center of the mess. Without the Republicon Senators, Trump wouldn't last a second......
Concentrate on the Republicon Senators up for re-election. Period.
Even if the Dems should some how miraculously win a rigged game, The Dem president would face nothing but the same obstruction that the Repub Senate handed to Obama......

[procon]

5. Thanks Trump, no one thinks we're great, but they

sure do mock us and berate us. Because of Trump's incompetence, now our enemies send us care packages. They boast about our failures on their national TV shows and brag about manipulating this immature and needy president.

We are dependent of the good will of our opponents to bring us basic supplies because Trump, with his OCD reactions to anything connected to Obama, was negligent in planning for such a catastrophic event as we now face.

Trump had plenty of time for TV watching, golf holidays, Twitter rages, and retaliatory firings of the experts who do not share his unsubstantiated opinions. He wasted more time plotting vendettas against anyone who utters even a hint of a slight against him.

And then there was the nearly two months he fritters away denying the virus was any threat, making the US the number one country in corona virus outbreaks. As a result people are sick and dying everywhere, companies have failed, businesses closed, and families lost their homes. He must be so proud.

[MyOwnPeace]

7. "He must be so proud."

Nah, he hasn't got a clue (as if we didn't know!).


Great analysis of the situation, by the way!

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Perhaps Der Speigel is a little ahead of themselves...

America’s status as a political superpower is definitely crumbling, but can hopefully be restored by the Biden administration.

America continues to be a military superpower, and will continue to be an economic superpower unless/until:

1)China pegs its currency to another unit, such as the Euro, and

2)If OPEC stops selling oil in $USD

If the $USD becomes significantly weaker compared other currencies, then their superpower status might be challenged.

Until then, for better or worse, the US remains a dominant force among nations.

[BigmanPigman]

9. That made me feel better...thanks!

[BadgerMom]

37. Same.

[erronis]

13. Thingy - you are right. There are a lot of pieces, sorta like pick-up-sticks (jackstraws)

Grab hold of one piece and try to move it without disturbing the others.

It _might_ have been easier back in the days of non-global commerce and information. It is likely impossible nowadays. The connections are far larger than than the players (nodes). And the unknown influences will tremble the whole ensemble.

AI's are working on this as we talk. But they are easily fooled and are still built by humans with some innate weaknesses. Introduce external influences into their models such as a trump or putin and non-deterministic outcomes are guaranteed.

[crickets]

18. Good points. nt

[ProfessorGAC]

22. +1

A bit over their skis in this piece.
US nominal GDP is still larger than combined value of #2 & #3, China & Japan. And these two countries combined, have 4.5x the population.
So, in per capita GDP, it's not close.
That's not true of PPP, but I'm not fond of that derived statistic. Low labor cost can't justify China's high PPP without some "interesting" weighting factors.
So, GDP per capita is a direct, not derived, metric.
China & Japan: $19.4 trillion & 1.57 billion people.
U.S.: $19.6 trillion & 340 million people.
You really don't need to do the math.

[MFGsunny]

28. ...

[Victor_c3]

10. It might be due time for a shake-up of our society

40 years of Reaganomics coupled with penchant for costly and wasteful wars has to have long term effects on our power as a nation.

Things have to change. The government needs to serve the individuals that vote for it, not the billionaire and corporations. Small businesses need to be the basis of our economy, not gigantic corporations that need an army of low-wage workers to survive.

[DinahMoeHum]

25. With any luck, this whole crisis signals the death-knell. . .

. . .for "Reaganomics"/"supply-side"/"trickle-down" economics.

we're probably going back to Keynesian economic theory.





#newrostrong

[Celerity]

42. Keynesian theory's neither liberal nor conservative at its core, & Reagan was a Keynesian to a point

Reagan Was a Keynesian

By Paul Krugman

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/08/opinion/krugman-reagan-was-a-keynesian.html

There’s no question that America’s recovery from the financial crisis has been disappointing. In fact, I’ve been arguing that the era since 2007 is best viewed as a “depression,” an extended period of economic weakness and high unemployment that, like the Great Depression of the 1930s, persists despite episodes during which the economy grows. And Republicans are, of course, trying — with considerable success — to turn this dismal state of affairs to their political advantage.

They love, in particular, to contrast President Obama’s record with that of Ronald Reagan, who, by this point in his presidency, was indeed presiding over a strong economic recovery. You might think that the more relevant comparison is with George W. Bush, who, at this stage of his administration, was — unlike Mr. Obama — still presiding over a large loss in private-sector jobs. And, as I’ll explain shortly, the economic slump Reagan faced was very different from our current depression, and much easier to deal with. Still, the Reagan-Obama comparison is revealing in some ways. So let’s look at that comparison, shall we?

For the truth is that on at least one dimension, government spending, there was a large difference between the two presidencies, with total government spending adjusted for inflation and population growth rising much faster under one than under the other. I find it especially instructive to look at spending levels three years into each man’s administration — that is, in the first quarter of 1984 in Reagan’s case, and in the first quarter of 2012 in Mr. Obama’s — compared with four years earlier, which in each case more or less corresponds to the start of an economic crisis. Under one president, real per capita government spending at that point was 14.4 percent higher than four years previously; under the other, less than half as much, just 6.4 percent.

O.K., by now many readers have probably figured out the trick here: Reagan, not Obama, was the big spender. While there was a brief burst of government spending early in the Obama administration — mainly for emergency aid programs like unemployment insurance and food stamps — that burst is long past. Indeed, at this point, government spending is falling fast, with real per capita spending falling over the past year at a rate not seen since the demobilization that followed the Korean War.

snip



Reagan and Keynes: The Love That Dare Not Speak Its Name

https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/reagan-and-keynes-the-love-that-dare-not-speak-its-name




What Did We Learn from the Financial Crisis, the Great Recession, and the Pathetic Recovery?

by Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University

https://wws.princeton.edu/system/files/research/documents/Blinder_What_Did_We_Learn_from_the_Financial_Crisis_the_Great_Recession_and_the_Pathetic_Recovery.pdf

snip

Now, I realize that college (and even high school) economics teachers are not responsible for mass
public opinion. But more than half of U.S. adults have been to college, and many took at least one
economics course while they were there. Students who take just one biology course absorb the basic
principles of Darwinism. (Well, most of them do.) Why, then, don’t more students come away from
college with a rudimentary understanding of Keynesian economics? At least part of the blame must fall
on our shoulders.

One reason, I believe, for this massive pedagogical failure is mixing up economics with politics. For
not very good reasons, the label “Keynesian” has gotten associated with liberalism in modern America,
leading many conservatives to shun the doctrine—and the stabilizing fiscal policy that goes with it. This
misconception is something we should be able to “teach out” of our students. Using fiscal stimulus to
make recessions shorter and shallower is not something Democrats should embrace and Republicans
oppose. First, stimulus does not require larger government. Congress can use tax cuts instead—or the Fed
can chip in with monetary policy. Indeed, both Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush were big
Keynesians—in deeds, if not in words. Second, you can argue against many forms of government
spending, as conservatives are wont to do, without adopting the nonsense claim that more public spending
kills jobs. If you are not teaching your students that “Keynesianism” is neither conservative nor liberal,
you should be.

snip


Alan Stuart Blinder (born October 14, 1945) is an American economist who is a professor at Princeton University and served as the Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System under Bill Clinton.

Blinder is among the most influential economists in the world according to IDEAS/RePEc, and is "considered one of the great economic minds of his generation."

He served on President Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers from January 1993 to June '94 and as the Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from June 1994 to January 1996. Blinder's recent academic work has focused particularly on monetary policy and central banking, and on the "offshoring" of jobs. His writing has been published in The New York Times, The Washington Post, as well as a monthly column in The Wall Street Journal.

[kentuck]

11. Excellent question.

Very possible.

[bucolic_frolic]

12. Focus is way off

Superpowers will endure, but are cowed because they can't operate in secrecy anymore, yet most countries of any importance are operating on the same system. What is happening to capitalism? Have banks lost their ability to control it? Is it overtaken by technology? I mean money is free but it doesn't stimulate economic growth, and little people can't get their hands on enough of it to make a difference for themselves. Interest rates have been low since 2001, and falling. What if it stays this way? Economic growth of 0-2%, interest rates 0-1%, when will they end stimulus when it becomes obvious even to them that it's not working?

[erronis]

15. Capitalism Fails the Covid 19 Crisis - this seems to explain our problem very cogently.

https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/04/12/capitalism-fails-the-covid-19-crisis/

We have shut down large parts of our economy and our social lives to cope with the Covid-19 crisis. This experience might teach us a lot about ourselves and about our economic system. Here are some things that seem important to me.

1. The point of capitalism is to protect capitalists. We see this fact after every financial crisis. The bailouts go to capitalists and their corporations, and therefore indirectly to the shareholders, who are largely in the top 10% in wealth. That was so after the Great Crash of 2008 when the financial institutions that caused the disaster were bailed out with massive help from Congress and the Fed. Other massive aid went to the automobile industry and airlines. There was next to nothing for any of the millions of us damaged by the cheats and frauds of the financial sector.
This time the money cannon was first aimed at the financial institutions. Fed programs to save the financial system include the following:
a. Cutting bank capital requirements.
b. A quantitative easing program, under which the Fed will purchase an unlimited amount of Treasuries and Agent debt, commercial real estate backed by Fannie and Freddie, and pretty much anything else as needed to preserve liquidity and insure orderly markets. Whatever that means.
c. A program, called a facility, to buy newly-issued long term corporate debt.
d. A similar facility to buy existing corporate debt.
e. A facility to buy asset-backed securities, like packages of student loans. and collateralized business loans.
f. Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility that we hope will stabilize the money market funds so many people use.
g. A facility to buy certain tax-free commercial paper, so states and localities an continue to fund certain public and private projects.
h. The Fed is also considering a plan to lend directly to small businesses.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

21. It was always thus -- those who create the wealth get it sucked from them by parasites.

[Hekate]

14. It took the GOP and Russia quite some time to pull it off, but here we are

How fcking stupid a country have we been? Some on our side saw it -- basically Democrats -- but they and we have been outgunned as to the tactics of power and the power of tactics.

[erronis]

17. Yes. I think we (liberals, democrats) relied on basic human goodness. Not pure (r) evil.

For them politics is a blood sport.

Win and take the spoils.

No mercy.

Who knows, they may be right. This is they way most tribes, empires have operated over recorded history. A few examples of supposed caring for the "common man", and then wars, enslavement, serfdom, caste systems.

Maybe we've just had a half-decent run of an experiment where mainly white, male, landed, rich people could pretend to exercise their rights to vote.
Perhaps.

[Mickju]

16. All it took was electing a moronic fool as our president.

Thanks Putin!

[rocktivity]

20. Not its implosion, its detonation by China and Russia

to which Trump was either blackmailed or duped into aiding and abetting.


rocktivity

[Hermit-The-Prog]

23. blackmailed, duped, and bribed into aiding and abetting

China, Russia and our own GOP have manipulated people, processes, information and legislation to undermine democracy.

[Sherman A1]

24. Yes

[OnDoutside]

27. Ask us after November 3rd.

[Celerity]

29. ...

[former9thward]

30. When I clicked on this I thought it was going to be about China.

What country would trust its supply chain to be in China after this? What country is going to trust anything China says after its deceit about this virus?

[stillcool]

35. Who cares about China's deceit?

certainly not the manufacturers who are based there. Do you care about the deceit we see every day coming out of the White House?

[pat_k]

31. Imploded the day Trump was elected.

It's been obvious to our allies that there is something seriously wrong with the US when we followed up tolerance for torture with the election of a madman.

It is only our so-called "superpower" status -- and the hope we will fix this tremendous wrong in the next election -- that has kept them from utterly denouncing him, and us.

If we don't address the massive voter suppression that has grown with every election cycle, we will see a second term. And that will be the end of any shreds of a positive reputation in the world.

[Pacifist Patriot]

32. Am I the only one not bothered if we aren't a superpower?

I've spent time in many non superpower countries and frankly the people there seem just fine.

Now I don't want Russia and China to be the superpowers if the globe has to have such a thing.

But I'm cool if this superpower shit were to go away altogether.

[Captain Zero]

51. really Denmark is not a super power and they are the happiest people in the world

Chilling in their saunas...

[Pacifist Patriot]

52. Coincidentally...

Denmark was the country that popped in to my head first when I was writing that. I didn't want to come home when I was there last year.

[paleotn]

34. Ummm...no.

Nukes? Check. Vast wealth and technological expertise? Check. Most powerful military machine the planet has ever seen? Check. A functioning Constitution and upcoming free elections. Check. I'd say we're still a superpower and in no danger of imploding, thank you very much. Sometimes I think people have been watching too much dystopian fiction on Hulu. Historically, Rome had to endure Caligula and Nero before the 5 good emperors and the greatest extent of their power. Great Britain lost their most populace and valuable colonies before becoming the greatest empire the planet had ever seen.

If any nation is able to survive this, it's the US. The only issue I see is, due to Donnie Body Bags, we're unable to provide much leadership at the present moment. Our governors are having to do that, but haven't they been doing that since 2017? On climate change, trade and a whole raft of other issues.

On the positive side...and yes, there are positives....the information gleaned in such a short period of time on how this and other viruses work is unprecedented. And it's those advances that will help us in the next crises...and in how to treat everyday viruses that have plagued us for millennia.

[stillcool]

36. functioning constitution and free elections...

uncheck.

[paleotn]

39. The fact that you're typing that....

without fear of guys with uniforms bursting through your door to arrest you for typing it proves we have a functioning constitution. Has it been in better shape? Yes. Can it be again? You bet. Are we North Korea or even Russia? Not in the least.

[Locrian]

44. true but if trump wins a second term - it may be "hold my beer" - n/t

[stillcool]

46. so we have a functioning constitution..

because I'm allowed to type? Has nothing to do with the Judicial System, or the Rule of Law, or checks & balances, or elections. As long as I am typing everything is fine.

[Turbineguy]

40. I don't recall the Romans electing the Visigoths.

Americans elected trump. At least enough. If they do it again, the U.S. will be a has-been superpower.

Life went on in Britain and a number of other colonial powers afterwards.

[jmg257]

41. No. We will shake this off, one way or another. And still have a HUGE military, and maybe even

stop relying on cheaper crap from overseas, and understand why "buy American" isn't just a great slogan, but actually a matter of survival.

I say...not yet.

[SheltieLover]

43. The Deliberate, Systematic Destruction of our country

And deliberate mass murder.

[Wednesdays]

45. Are we Making America Great Again?

Tired yet from all the winning?

[Cha]

47. Der Spiegel Warned us in Jan 2016!

[UCmeNdc]

48. Everytime you hear a MAGA Trump supporter talk, remember this is who is destroying the US

Trump, McConnell, Barr, are all part of the decline of the United States.

Period!

[kcr]

49. I'd take Der Spiegel's opinion of the US with a grain of salt

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-deep-pathology-at-the-heart-of-the-scandal-at-der-spiegel

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/23/anti-america-bias-der-spiegel-scandal-relotius

It doesn't seem like they've learned their lesson.

[ck4829]

50. Yes