Virus Would Rebound If Country Re-Opened May 1

[applegrove]

Virus Would Rebound If Country Re-Opened May 1

April 12, 2020 at 5:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 67 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2020/04/12/virus-would-rebound-if-country-re-opened-may-1/

"SNIP......

Christopher Murray, the director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told CBS News that the U.S. would “very clearly have a rebound” in coronavirus cases if social distancing guidelines are eased on May 1.

Said Murray: “The first testing we’ve done on this is if you opened up the entire country May 1, then we would very clearly have a rebound. We don’t think the capability in the states exists yet to deal with that volume of cases. And so by July or August, we could be back in the same situation we are now.”

He added: “Maybe some states can open up mid-May, but we have to be very careful and make sure that we don’t sort of lose all of the effort that the American people have put into closures by premature opening.”

......SNIP"

[customerserviceguy]

1. It's not going to happen

Trump's just farting a tune for his business friends. He'll keep moving the goalposts.

Also, he's trying to inoculate himself from political damage from a bad economy. "Look, I wanted to put America back to work, but the Democrats wouldn't let me!" will be something he says during a debate.

[cwydro]

2. I hope you're right.

We’re in for big trouble if not.

He’s going to fuck this up even more than he already has - I feel certain.

[customerserviceguy]

3. When Trump stopped calling this a hoax

it was a sign that some of the grownups had shown up. They can't stop him from flapping his gums, all they can do is put out truth, and trust that no one, not even his supporters, believe him.

[Newest Reality]

6. Calling it...

Calling it his "invisible enemy" is problematic spin for all kinds of reasons, too.

[customerserviceguy]

7. It's a big step

towards reality. People who congregate in spite of bans need to consider that they cannot see the disease. Carriers are not all people on ventilators.

[Newest Reality]

9. Well, it's an out...

It was "invisible" so how could he see it coming in advance? You can't blame somebody who can't see something you just can't see. And enemy goes along with his "wartime President" shtick.

So, that test marketing of a phrase went over well, (some don't) and it is starting to spread among the GOP as well, since some Governors, and Senators are starting to mimic the confidence script Trump writes in real time.

No, it is COVID-19 and an epidemic and there was plenty of warning and you can see it in an electron microscope and it is not, in effect, an "enemy" because a virus has no volition or planning strategy, etc.

Hence, it is not an invisible enemy. That's spin for his own and the GOP's sake.

[customerserviceguy]

10. Again

proof that the grownups have shown up. They're able to use focus groups to manage the message and sell it to him, and they certainly want to stave off a second wave until after the election.

[sop]

5. If there's any possible way Trump can fuck things up even more, that's precisely what he'll do.

[Sherman A1]

4. It is going to rebound whenever the country opens

until there is a vaccine for the virus, you can expect a second and third wave at the very least.

[sop]

8. Trump is too stupid to understand the only reason the rates of infections and deaths are now

declining is due to the many shutdowns and social distancing. It's like he's hoping for another wave.

[Caliman73]

11. I don't think he is hoping. He simply doesn't care.

Trump doesn't plan. He simply operates on the desire to do the thing that benefits him the most and most quickly. He wants to open the country because he thinks the economy will pick up. It will. People will go back to work and the economy will pick up for now, in the short term. Then as the experts predict, the virus will rebound and we will see it spread again. Trump and his cronies will want this to happen after the election but if it doesn't, then they will react by finding a scapegoat and trying to blame anyone else but their own stupidity.

That is his playbook. That is what he always does. It doesn't change.

Trump is sadistic, but he has no ability to really plan anything. He just reacts.

[pat_k]

12. Whenever the nation "reopens," preventing a rebound will require near universal access to testing

Whenever the nation "reopens," preventing a rebound will require near universal access to testing - including home testing -- with aggressive tracing and quarantine.

If a vast majority of us are not effectively self-quarantined, we must have the means to detect, trace, and quarantine every case that develops as soon as possible.

That means easy access to regular testing, including home testing, with task forces in place to trace and quarantine contacts of positives.

It also requires an antibody test to identify those who are immune.

Containment is possible with a more targeted approach, but substantial resources are required to accomplish it.

If they want to minimize the cost to the economy, they need to spend what is necessary to keep it contained -- and every state should be gearing up RIGHT NOW to do what is necessary and lobbying for federal fund to institute and carry out programs (they cannot rely on Executive branch agencies for ANYTHING).

And those at the top who will benefit the most from a "reopened" economy will have to invest heavily in making that happen in the form of 2020 wealth tax.