538-Did Sanders Blow It For The Democratic Left? Or Was The Nomination Always Out Of Reach?

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

Overall, however, I think there is a decent case that the left was always going to have a hard time defeating a center left in 2020.

“The Sanders/Warren wing is smaller than the Obama/Clinton/Biden wing of the party, even though the Sanders/Warren wing tends to be more active and visible, especially online,” said Benjamin Knoll, who teaches American politics at Kentucky’s Centre College. “The Sanders wing of the party is hugely popular among younger Democrats, and time and time again they simply don’t show up to vote in primaries at the same rate as older voters.”

He added, “In 2016, the ‘establishment’ wing coalesced around a single candidate, Hillary Clinton, and was able to beat back Sanders. This time it may have been possible for Sanders to follow the 2016 Trump route by having a core third of the party and splitting the establishment vote, allowing him to emerge with a plurality. But the Democratic primary electorate coalesced around Biden after South Carolina.”...

Of course, that’s not to say you can’t make a compelling argument that 2020 represented a golden opportunity for the left and they simply fumbled it.

The left embraced two Northeastern liberals with entirely predictable weaknesses with older black voters, and neither Sanders nor Warren did much to connect with those voters.

Sanders and Warren did not focus enough on convincing voters that they were as electable as Biden, even as polls showed Democratic voters were obsessed with picking a candidate who could beat Trump.

Sanders and Warren embraced getting rid of private insurance in favor of Medicare for All, a position that is controversial even among Democrats and was easy for the center left to cast as both impractical and a barrier to defeating Trump.

Neither Sanders nor Warren had effective strategies for defending themselves from attacks from the party’s center left after they surged in the polls.

After his win in Nevada, Sanders did little to engage Democrats who didn’t already support him; in fact, he antagonized them.

Warren was unwilling to drop out and endorse Sanders before Super Tuesday, even as the weaker center-left candidates consolidated around Biden.

Sanders’s campaign apparently planned to win the nomination by getting a plurality of the vote (30 to 35 percent) in a crowded field and it didn’t appear to have a real plan for a one-on-one contest against Biden.

…...Finally, some of the more campaign-centric narratives seem clearly contradicted by the structural case I laid out above. Biden’s support among black voters was strong before he formally started his campaign, and none of the other candidates — including two prominent black ones (Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris) — ever really dented it, so it’s hard to say that flawed black outreach was a particular failing of Sanders or Warren.

[RandySF]

1. In retrospect, he never had a chance without a multi candidate field.

[Gothmog]

3. counting on 30% to win seems like a bad strategy

[NurseJackie]

15. That was his only hope!

And, thankfully... it failed. We now have our nominee: Joe Biden.

I think he's never going to run for president again. This is is. It's over. Last one. Last try. Last dance.

[William769]

2. "in fact, he antagonized them."

That right there even his supporters did that. Good riddance.

[Cha]

4. What Do Those "younger" rally Goers Do On

Election days since they don't mail in or previously go to the polls?

[larwdem]

5. WTF

I'M part of the left and am for Biden??

[msongs]

6. bernie doesn't have the personal/political skills to put together the needed coalition nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. I have to wonder if the party will reassess how it conducts primaries in the future. Being a hugely

diverse political party, it just doesn't make sense to start our nominating process with the two whitest states in the country.

[brer cat]

8. It certainly gives a misleading bounce to candidates

like Bernie who don't appeal to AA voters.

[OnDoutside]

9. They simply have to change. If you look at what happened, the

Sanders campaign's plan was to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, using those unrepresentative wins to browbeat voters in to believing that there was no alternative candidate who could win. That might have succeeded but for Mayor Pete firstly, and the massive screw up in the Iowa count.

[gab13by13]

10. Isn't it time to start talking about Joe and not Bernie?

Joe has a hard row to hoe, everybody better get behind him now because talking negatively about Bernie so much isn't going to help.

It sure looks to me like the importance of Bernie's main issues, 15.00 minimum wage and health care for all would be nice to have in a time of pandemic. It's smart of Joe to come out and start endorsing parts of Bernie's platform. Those grocery workers and hospital cleaners are sure earning their 13 dollar/hr wages now.

[TreasonousBastard]

11. Historically, hard-left candidates have always had a hard time. Whatever popular support...

they may have had, it just couldn't overcome the stasis of the general population.

People do not always act in their best interests without some guarantees. And even with guarantees it can be tricky.

[beachbumbob]

12. what blew it was the hard reality that America has never been or will be a "leftist" country

[ck4829]

13. Made all the easier when valuing lives over profits or not wanting to get shot are seen as "leftist"

Almost everything is "leftist"

[brooklynite]

14. The Primary was always out of reach based on the way Sanders ran his campaign...

Sanders didn't get a majority of votes in the 2016 campaign, so he would need to find ADDITIONAL voters in 2020. Every respected political analyst would tell you those were center-left voters to his right. He chose to believe there were non-voters to his left that he could inspire to show up.

[MineralMan]

16. Clearly, the Sanders Campaign Did Not Do the Math.

They never had more than about 35% support. How could they not have known that candidates would drop out after not doing well in the primaries? And most of those candidates appealed to the same voters who would have voted for Biden before Sanders. As we have seen, that's exactly what happened.

The Sanders campaign was doomed from the start, because it did not add new followers. Same folks as in 2016, except that Elizabeth Warren got some of them on her side, but not enough to stay in the race.

Once it got down to just Biden and Sanders, Bernie had nowhere to go but out.

[The Magistrate]

17. The Error Was Two-Fold, Sir

First, the man believed his own dream, that he could rally sleeping millions who really did in their hearts yearn for revolutionary change in a left direction.

Second, the man was incapable of realizing that his destructive behavior during the 2016 campaign had roused cold hatred for him among millions of rank and file Democrats, even a great many who hold left and progressive goals dear.

[MineralMan]

18. Further, Sir,

Senator Sanders never outgrew his youthful infatuation with socialism. He never quite understood that socialism as a political philosophy had never actually succeeded as a practical governmental system. Even today, over 50 years after his youthful period, he repeats things that were commonly said in the 1960s.

Second, Mr. Sanders lives inside his own head, and believes what he believes about the power of his plan. As he finds supporters who second his ideas, the confirmation cognitive bias takes over and reinforces his incorrect reasoning about his chances of success. Thus, he does not recognize any destructive behavior in himself or his followers.

He is an impractical man with impractical ideas. Such men commonly fail to realize those ideas.

[The Magistrate]

20. It Is True He Has Learnt Nothing, Sir

His devotees dub this 'consistency' and 'sticking to principles' but it is in fact a fatal flaw. A man who believes at sixty exactly as he did as twenty displays a crippling deficiency in the workings of his mind.

[MineralMan]

21. Indeed, Sir.

If I reflect on my thinking in my 20s, I can scarcely recognize myself in it.

[Hortensis]

19. They all blew it. Sanders isn't the one and could never be.

[Gothmog]

22. I agree with Ton Klain

Link to tweet

?s=20

[crickets]

23. He does make a good point, doesn't he? nt