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gristy

(10,667 posts)
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 11:02 AM Apr 2020

A Greater Depression

This article was referenced in a NY Times Editorial today: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-what-we-know.html

Here's the article:


The 1930s Depression Was ‘Great.’ This One Might Be Greater.
The coronavirus pandemic may end this winter, but a longtime expert says the economic damage will be deep and could last for years.
April 2, 2020|by Edmund L. Andrews

By any reckoning, the coronavirus pandemic will be at least a temporary body blow to the U.S. and global economies. The debate among forecasters is whether unemployment this summer will peak at 15%, which is much worse than after the 2008 financial crisis, or soar to new records above 30%.

The real question is what happens after the pandemic subsides. Will the recovery expected later this year be a “V-shaped” rebound that’s almost as steep and fast as the March collapse?

That’s what many forecasters predict, and it seems intuitive. But Nicholas A. Bloom, a professor of economics (by courtesy) at Stanford Graduate School of Business and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, who has spent years tracking “uncertainty shocks,” isn’t so optimistic.

Not only will this downturn be worse than what followed the financial crisis of 2008, he says, it could rival the Great Depression.

“People may end up calling this the Greater Depression,” Bloom says. “I think the drop will be comparable to the Depression. The only question is about the rate of recovery.”

...

more: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/1930s-depression-was-great-one-might-be-greater

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A Greater Depression (Original Post) gristy Apr 2020 OP
Bloom doesn't know Trump ... GeorgeGist Apr 2020 #1
How about the Tremendous Depression? The Huge (Yuge) Depression? Make7 Apr 2020 #2
How about calling what's coming The We're Number One So Much Winning Depression? abqtommy Apr 2020 #3

Make7

(8,543 posts)
2. How about the Tremendous Depression? The Huge (Yuge) Depression?
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 12:28 PM
Apr 2020

It took about three years for the GDP to get back to its pre-Great Recession inflation adjusted value and over six years for the number of employed people to recover. The time those measures will take during this contraction will most likely be determined by when vaccines and/or effective treatments are widely available, but many businesses are going to be wiped out and lots of people will permanently lose their jobs prior to that. Unfortunately, it will probably take multiple years for this recovery.

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