All the models, predictions on the final death toll are complete bullshit.

[shockey80]

They are now saying it may be around 60,000. 60,000 by when, what date? By June, July? This virus is not going anywhere. Even when we reach the peak and then the spreading of the virus slows down, people are still going to die from the virus. The rate may slow down, but people will continue to die.

There could be a second wave, with a lunatic in the Whitehouse the chances of that happening are very good.

If it takes 18 months to get a vaccine and then many months to manufacture billions of doses, months to give billions of people the vaccine, people will continue to die.

They give us predictions of the final death toll, but they don't give us a date when people will stop dying from the virus. If you don't know when people will stop dying from the virus , how can you predict the final death toll? Just saying.

[Wellstone ruled]

1. We are dealing with a

Propaganda Campaign coming directly out of the Oval. There are real facts and then there is the Orange Anus seeking reelection facts.

[kentuck]

2. 19 days.

We are presently losing 2000 + lives per day. At that rate, it would take 19 more days to reach 60,000 casualties.

That would be more lives than lost in the Vietnam War, on the American side.

That would put us around May 2nd.

We must guard against letting these lives becoming numbers rather than real people with families and loved ones.

[mopinko]

9. and that is assuming a straight line, not a logarithmic curve.

so, yeah, complete and dangerous bullshit.

[kentuck]

10. That is right.

That would assume that it has reached a plateau and the death rate will not increase.

[ansible]

3. I don't think there'll ever be an effective vaccine, there isn't even one for the regular flu

Consider how the regular flu already kills thousands every year, I still vividly remember the 2018 flu season and got hit with the worst flu I've ever experienced. We're fucked, it's here to stay for good.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. They're working on 70

they have 3 leading candidates. Hopefully, they are able to at least come up with something to lessen the effects, make them less severe. I mean, the Flu vaccine usually works pretty well for most people but obviously it's not foolproof. And most of the people whom die from the Flu are elderly or compromised.

[peggysue2]

4. The current model

Indicates 61,500+ deaths by August 4th. But you're quite right about the numbers changing as conditions on the ground change and Trump pushes for his early 'business as usual' opening.

It's a clusterf*ck of monumental proportions.

Medical experts I've read have been saying that we will not have an automatic end to infection rates, that the virus will stalk the population for some time to come until (or if) an effective vaccine is universally available. The numbers will slow down but they won't stop altogether. They've also indicated that we should not expect the warmer weather to be a Eureka moment.

Second wave? Yeah, it's possible. A lot we don't know.

[gristy]

6. I've been taking that estimate to be for the first wave

They don't talk much about waves after that.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Trump is focused on the present and what number will help his re-election campaign

never on what's best for other people. But still 60K deaths in a matter of 2-3 months ain't nothing to brag about.

[Captain Stern]

11. No, they aren't.

The model that you're probably talking about predicts about 60,000 by August. Not June. Not July. August. That's a smaller number than was previously predicted, so that's good.

It's never been represented as a model that predicts the total amount of deaths. Ever.

Yes, there could be a second wave, or a third wave, or maybe a vaccine is never developed.

If you actually thought that that model (or any other model that I've seen) was predicting 60,000 as the final death toll in our country from the virus, then you were severely misinformed (at best).

[mopinko]

12. they are putting a lot of stock in the body count.

i have a wager w my trumpkin. i wont say what it is exactly, except that his silly low ball arrived last week already.
we didnt stipulate a time in the original bet, but i decided to be a sport, and make it 1 year. i also said i didnt win till we split the difference.

but i did tell him many times that the body count was they only stat that mattered. now he is claiming they are tagging every body in the morgue as cv. i told him they are finding bodies now, and will keep finding them all summer.

60,000 is a number we will shake our heads at 6 mos from now.

[Wounded Bear]

13. My, my, aren't we testy?

many of the early models were based on various stages of preventive measures. The worst preditions were based on unfettered spread of the virus.

Most places have put measures in place to slow the pandemic. They're working, though we aren't anywhere near where we need to get there.

Predicting natural events is difficult, especially when dealing with human behaviors. All predictions are at best estimates. Frankly, I'm glad that predicted levels of damage are dropping.

Only idiots like the Presidump are predicting some magic return to normal in June.