STUDY: If potus had taken action 2 weeks earlier-90% of US covid-19 deaths could have been prevented

[kpete]

A new epidemiology model finds that, if Trump had taken action on social distancing two weeks earlier than he did, 90% of U.S. coronavirus deaths could have been prevented.

Link to tweet

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Put simply, Trump’s narcissism and obsession with his own political interests is killing about 50,000 of our fellow Americans, our loved ones, friends, and neighbors. Trump is death.

Link to tweet

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[SheltieLover]

1. K&R

[MFGsunny]

2. K & R for visibility n/t

[Blues Heron]

3. look at China

unless you believe they hid millions of sick people(?), they put lid on it as soon as possible - unlike Trump. As a result, despite a massive population 4 times ours, they have a fraction of the cases and deaths. Trump has a lot to answer for.

[former9thward]

11. No one seriously believes the Chinese figures.

The Chinese figures suddenly stopped going up when local officials were replaced. Also the Chinese did things like welding the doors shut of people's homes. Do you really think anyone in the U.S. would put up with that? Would you? China is a ruthless dictatorship. If you think Americans would put up with their tactics I don't know what to say.

[Blues Heron]

12. you could give an estimate of how many sick people they are hiding?

Just a thought - really how many sick people do you think they're hiding? Do you have an estimate and evidence if any?

[former9thward]

42. Why would they need to "hide" the sick people?

China is not an open society. They just don't report the numbers.

C.I.A. Hunts for Authentic Virus Totals in China, Dismissing Government Tallies

But American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world. Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html

[Blues Heron]

45. there must be videos of packed hospitals etc.

The one and only attempt at evidence from the "china's hiding thousands of deaths" people was a stack of urns at a funeral home that was "too high" That's it for the evidence. Your the one cooking up the conspiracy - where's your evidence and how many deaths are they covering up? are you ever going to invent a number or is it always just "going with your gut" At least just make up a number. It really chaps you guys that they did better - a lot better - than we have.

But they welded!!!

[former9thward]

47. Happy to see the Chinese dictatorship has its defenders here.

同志!

[groundloop]

16. South Korea would be a better example

South Korea acted quickly and aggressively, which resulted in a far better outcome than the US.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-comforts-of-south-koreas-coronavirus-response

[former9thward]

48. S. Korea did not shut down anything.

You are right about its outcome but people seem to think everything needs to be shutdown.

[IronLionZion]

29. Maybe not millions

but I believe their numbers are higher than what they're reporting. And they may have reopened too early resulting in a second wave. We won't know about it because they threw out foreign journalists.

[Blues Heron]

30. Do any of you people ever have any numbers?

what exactly is the magnitude of this alleged conspiracy? How are they hiding the vast numbers of sick people they must have? Where are the smuggled vids? You people can't fathom that they did a far better job than we did, that's the basic problem.

[IronLionZion]

31. Have you ever been there?

I have been there for work and have friends living there right now. So I have some idea of what their government is capable of doing and hiding.

Most every country has done a far better job than the US with Trump's failed leadership.

But I don't have any numbers so you got me there....

[Blues Heron]

33. didn't think so

cool story though

[IronLionZion]

34. Be safe out there

[Blues Heron]

39. likewise - be safe out there

[jmg257]

4. Federal "Guidelines"?? vs actual State shutdowns....its the latter that helped in NY.

To a large extent, the growth in U.S. deaths from Covid-19 has been fueled by the devastating events in New York, where the state’s stay-at-home order did not take effect until March 22. Our assessment echoes that of Dr. Tom Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who was New York City’s health commissioner from 2002 to 2009. He has estimated that deaths might have been reduced by 50 percent to 80 percent in the city if social distancing had been widely adopted a week or two earlier.

The point here is not to cast blame on mayors or governors for the timing of what were difficult decisions for both public health and the economy, but rather, to alert cities and states where full social distancing measures are not in place that hesitation can come at a very high cost.

[uponit7771]

5. K&R, Buttery Males

Last edited Wed Apr 15, 2020, 08:58 AM - Edit history (1)

[Solomon]

6. I firmly believe this post.

[onetexan]

7. More ammo for Biden camp

Put it front & center on an ad. Pin the US covid-related deaths on the Idiot.

[LastDemocratInSC]

8. America's version of Pol Pot.

[localroger]

9. This is basic exponential math

COVID-19 has an unimpeded doubling interval of about 3 days, that is, in an unsaturated population without controls every three days you will have twice as many cases as you did before. This shows with great consistency in the death statistics, and the main reason it doesn't in the new case statistics is that not everyone is symptomatic and therefore not everyone is tested and identified.

Now something always stops this progression, whether it is some action taken like the drastic social distancing measures to change the doubling interval or saturation of the population so that there are no new victims available. If we say that some event occurs at time T and the final number of victims is N, then if that event occurs at T-3 the number of victims will be N/2. Take it at T-6 and it's N/4. T-9, N/8. T-12, N/16. That's about two weeks. It may not be quite perfect because the mitigating actions aren't perfect. Or the doubling interval might be 76 hours instead of 72. It can be hard to measure that exactly.

This shouldn't be a surprise. This should be obvious. This is a basic geometric progression and they occur all over the place in nature in real systems that can be easily observed, particularly where the growth of living things is involved. Ever since the news broke there have been voices, some of them in the government, expressing shock and disbelief that such a thing could possibly happen. Toward the end of February there was a thread here where a DUer was insistent that it was impossible that there would be 12,000 dead people in the US by April 7. There were, to within a few percent of the prediction in fact.

Sociological studies have shown that human intuition tends to assume linear growth; we naturally believe that what happens today will resemble yesterday and tomorrow will resemble today. But exponential growth doesn't work that way. Exponential growth looks slow and benign until it isn't. On that day when COVID had killed 12,000 Americans, it had killed 6,000 of them in the previous three days. Compared to the early days of March that looks crazy, but it is actually normal. It is exactly what we should expect from this disease because that's exactly what it has done everywhere else and at every scale where it has been allowed to progress without countermeasures.

So this headline amounts to "water is wet, disease acts like a disease, no surprises." We need to understand this, and quickly. Because right now the voices of intuition are itching to reopen the country even though the disease is still out there. And if that is done too soon -- well, it will continue to double every three days until it runs out of victims to infect, the ultimate countermeasure that stops all exponential progressions.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. Yes. It is the logistic curve (sigmoidal) which is like two exponentials glued together

Basically it is exponentially increasing until 50% and then exponentially decreasing, which means a long taper as the human population gets saturated with infection. It describes in a way the population growth of antibodies in the human bio-culture. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_ecology:_modeling_population_growth

Logistic curve (Wikipedia):


The rate of change of the curve is the famous Curve We Are Flattening, because that is the rate at which we adding new cases. Technically it is called the logistic distribution (though it is not a probability distribution). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_distribution As you lock down, you slow the rate of infection, which flattens the curve and spreads it out so that hospitals and health care workers are not overwhelmed.

Logistic distribution (Wikipedia):


Can't show it here, but look at the Daily New Cases bar graph for South Korea: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

[JudyM]

40. The key is quantification. Making the numbers as concrete as possible.

[unblock]

10. but think of the corporate profit he saved us in those two weeks!

i certainly don't hear any objections from the dead people about giving their lives for a fortnight of profits!

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

13. So let's get some perspective...

Could be approx. 15x or more deaths than the 9/11 terrorists murdered.

[FakeNoose]

14. If 60,000 Americans die from CV-19

... as projected on this model, that number is higher than all the casualties from the Vietnam War. And that war lasted over 10 years. Good job Chump! You asked Americans to vote for you in 2016 because "What have you got to lose?" I guess we know the answer to that question now.

[Grokenstein]

17. How many Benghazis a day does this amount to?

[Grokenstein]

15. But if he HAD acted sooner...

...he wouldn't have been able to go golfing!!

Elsewhere I see knuckleknobs and moscowbots crying that if he had acted sooner, everyone would have criticized him as an overreaching fascist dictator-wannabe.

(facepalms)

That's because he constantly acts like one, you trashbags. We suspect every move he makes because he's made it VERY clear that he is not right in the head. P.S. He IS an overreaching fascist dictator-wannabe, you're just too blinded by your worship of wrongwing con-men to realize it.

[groundloop]

18. A smart President would have had a well spoken expert explain the situation

I keep thinking of how President Obama might have handled this. Unlike tRump, I'm quite certain he would have listened to experts in the infectious disease field and had one of them as a spokesperson to explain to the American people how a few weeks of sacrifice would get us through this with the minimal loss of life.

[SergeStorms]

32. Yes, but.....

Donald Trump knows more about this virus than all other virologists in the world combined, believe me!

Yes, that's sarcasm, but you know those words would slither out of Trump's stupid mouth sooner or later.

[AllyCat]

19. He has literally killed people

[bucolic_frolic]

21. This guys been way out there for awhile

and I still don't know what to make of his posts, if anything. The day of reckoning he postulates seems never to advance .......

Link to tweet

[Javaman]

22. if the orange asshole could actually feel empathy...

we wouldn't be in the shit basket we're in now.

it all goes back to him being a psychopath

[lagomorph777]

23. Not an accident. Turd intended to murder tens of thousands at least.

He is creaming his pants with glee every day.

[marble falls]

24. The link to the opinion at NYT ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opinion/covid-social-distancing.html

[Bernardo de La Paz]

25. WaPo: more to die than in wars of Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true

By the time Donald Trump proclaimed himself a wartime president — and the coronavirus the enemy — the United States was already on course to see more of its people die than in the wars of Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined.

[karin_sj]

26. Sickening

Also infuriating, but mostly horribly heartbreaking.

[amuse bouche]

27. I hate that murderous pig

[SergeStorms]

28. Everything Donald Trump touches dies.

Rick Wilson was exactly right when he penned his book during the first year of Trump's chaotic, destructive presidency.

Stupid MAGAts! I sincerely hope his cult will return to their positions beneath the rocks after Trump is defeated. Anyone who voted for this imbecile should never be allowed anywhere near a voting booth again.

[SpankMe]

35. I'm skeptical of this

Too many variables. Plus, it's state governors who implement stay-at-home protocols, not Orange Assholes.

What Trump should have done - in February, as the potential consequences of this was being fully realized - was to get a massive PPE production drive going, and ram-rod the creation of as many reliable testing kits as possible.

Also, he should have initiated a toilet paper rationing protocol - with coupons and everything, like in WW2. My local grocery store and Costco have been out for more than a month now (save for a couple of deliveries that sold out within minutes, but which I missed because I wasn't camped out at their front door). I ordered some commercial TP online (those huge rolls you see in public restrooms) and received it. It'll last a while, but I want regular TP.

What the hell is wrong with people?

[ffr]

36. Leadership: Whatever happens, you're responsible. If it doesn't happen, you're responsible.

Yeah, Mr. impeached thumb up his ass said that.

Link to tweet

[calimary]

37. As Robert Gibbs just out it - "That's why we are where we are now."

Gibbs was President Obama’s White House press secretary. Back when we had an actual President we could Actually believe, and actually believe in.

[rictofen]

38. 100% of global COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented

[Blue Owl]

41. K&R

[jmg257]

43. Is he saying trump should have shut the country down?

Or issued harsher “guidelines”?
Wasn’t till mid- March that even NY did anything.

Would Cuomo have reacted sooner if trump did?

Would have been nice if someone did so
something worthwhile once cases started shouting up.

[Raastan]

44. K + R

[LizBeth]

46. Btw, it was the Governors that took action. Not trump.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

49. The only life that matters to Donald Trump is Donald Trump.

[ck4829]

50. K&R

[oasis]

51. 100% fact, although Trump will never own up to it. nt