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UK: "...significant element of social distancing might have to remain until a vaccine is available."
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. The prime minister’s spokesman deflected a lot of questions by telling reporters to wait until the press conference this afternoon, but he also strongly hinted that some social distancing measures will remain in force for potentially months - or even longer....
If No 10 is saying that it will be “guided by scientific and expert advice”, it is worth stressing that Ferguson is the scientific and expert advice - or at least a big component of it. Scientists do not always agree with each other, but Ferguson is a member of Sage, the scientific advisory group on emergencies, and he heads the team at Imperial College that produced the coronavirus modelling that persuaded the government to impose the lockdown in the first place....
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.
And this morning Ferguson said:
It’s not going to be going back to normal. We will have to maintain some form of social distancing, a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine.
If No 10 is saying that it will be “guided by scientific and expert advice”, it is worth stressing that Ferguson is the scientific and expert advice - or at least a big component of it. Scientists do not always agree with each other, but Ferguson is a member of Sage, the scientific advisory group on emergencies, and he heads the team at Imperial College that produced the coronavirus modelling that persuaded the government to impose the lockdown in the first place....
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.
And this morning Ferguson said:
It’s not going to be going back to normal. We will have to maintain some form of social distancing, a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine.
available.https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/16/coronavirus-uk-live-news-covid-19-lockdown-extension
