World O Meters has us at about 2500 new deaths currently

[gibraltar72]

they are showing 1025 New York. If that is correct that is a terribly bad sign. Anybody have an idea what's happening?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Deaths lag infections by about two weeks. Longer if facilities get overwhelmed. . . . nt

[greenjar_01]

2. Nobody actually knows anything about "lagging indicators" or whatever

Best guesses, all.

Let's be serious.

[gibraltar72]

3. yeah I know that

but trend had been down. Understand all that but 400 jump I thought maybe a bunch had been found in a nursing home or something like that. I'm sure there is an explanation we'll know later.

[Salviati]

4. Let's not shit on expertise either

People who know things, know things, amongst which is how to quantify uncertainty. That may not always be communicated in the popular media well, but saying that everything is just guesses, and that nobody knows anything is part of the rhetoric that is keeping us in this mess...

[greenjar_01]

6. Absolutely right...experts first!

The problem is that with this particular thing, the experts are making their best guesses. Expert best guesses are, of course, orders of magnitude better than dipshit in the street best guesses. Goes without saying.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. I am serious. It is not an "indicator". You aren't serious whenever you write "whatever"

The course of a Covid-19 illness from a decision about the symptoms to death, for those that progress to death, is about two weeks. I don't know the exact statistic, if anyone does right now, but it is a key factor.

In Canada and other places, the case load curve (logarithmic) has been flattening, but the death rate is not showing the same flattening in the log curve. I'm not sure what is going on with that.

Instead of shooting me down simply because I tried, how about you doing some thinking and propose some hypotheses beyond "whatever".

[greenjar_01]

7. Don't take it personally

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. If that's what you want, then please don't make it personal in the first place

Perhaps you made a mistake and replied to me instead of the OP. Well, you could own up to that.

You reply directly to me and say "Nobody actually knows anything", "whatever", "guesses", "Let's be serious".

We are here for discussion. Your post did not contribute to discussion.

[greenjar_01]

12. Whatever

[onenote]

8. My understanding is that the count is based on when deaths are reported not when the occur

In addition, the numbers have jumped around because of changes in the reporting to treat fatalities that haven't been confirmed as Covid-based via a test.

See the following explanation. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

[captain queeg]

9. Seems like the US numbers have sort of stabilized

That’s good but it’s a long way from seeing the numbers drop. There’s still way too much unknown but we’ll probably see some places loosening restrictions pretty soon.

If that ends up working out the yellow shit stain will take all the credit. If it doesn’t he’ll be pointing the finger at governors, mayors, doctors, anyone else but him. I just don’t see how his groupies can’t see the obvious. Anything wrong is someone else’s fault. Anything good is his.

[Ms. Toad]

11. Remember - the cases are still growing daily

Last edited Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:50 PM - Edit history (1)

Deaths will grow for 1-2 weeks after cases stop growing.

Bending the curve DOES NOT mean fewer cases daily. It means the number of new case every day is not increasing by as much.

The other thing going on is that new diagnoses and deaths from a couple of weeks ago are being added to today's total because the CDC changed diagnostic criteria and states are going back and reclassifying deaths and cases (See what happened in China on 2/12 & 2/13.)

ETA: Here is an explanation for the odd data for the past week or so https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

. . .

On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source].
. . .


The state of Ohio is an example of a state that has started reporting total cases and deaths correctly, in accordance with the new CDC guidelines. On its "Overview dashboard" it show total cases and total deaths, while also providing the breakdown between confirmed and probable, with the note "CDC Expanded Case Definition (Probable)" and "CDC Expanded Death Definition (Probable)."

. . .


Finally, since every probable death necessarily implies a probable case, logic mandates that the adjustment be made to both deaths and cases, and not only to deaths. We have now adjusted April 14, April 15, and current data for New York State and the United States accordingly.