Whats going to happen?
I like to deal with probabilities more than possibilities. Being aware of the possibilities is of course recommended but I tend to plan for the probabilities. The possibilities are endless and planning for those is impossible. Last week I would have said that we will hit about 1-1.5 million infected with about 1-2% dead from it around the second week of may if not earlier. I am not a scientist and I am not a statistician but I have been tracking it and while not dead on my projections been fairly accurate. While I think these are reasonable numbers that is not the point I want to make at all. When first doing this I used the raw numbers. Later when social distancing started you could see a decrease so I had to revise the estimates. Social constructs changed the outcome for the better. That was awesome. Now we have social constructs that will increase the numbers. States opening up more and more things such as beaches,churches, golf clubs, wrestling?(WTF, Idiocracy come true) and people protesting for states to open. This will only increase especially since we have our Dumb ass president pushing for it. The possibility for social constructs to increase the numbers has risen to a probability. There is about a 10 day delay in seeing results so keep an eye out for states that relax social distancing or even open back up entirely. 10 days after that things will spike and the probability that the numbers I have will be way too low are increasing with every day. Will this happen? Fuck if I know. I deal with probabilities but what was once only a possibility has now become a probability and I have changed my plans accordingly. Its not whats going to happen, but what may happen and Ive seen this country delve into madness far to often to think it will act accordingly.
Eko.
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Last edited Fri Apr 17, 2020, 10:55 PM - Edit history (3)
(on edit: added a "not" )
They are showing signs of blowing up (rapid climb in infections). This hasn't and can't (at this stage) penetrate the awareness of baggers, except perhaps that plant in South Dakota. The Wisconsin data is showing that infection starts up again 5 days later and is detected a couple of days after (lab test round trip) and confirmed a couple days later when 3 day moving average confirms it. Call it 10 days.
With the body bagger movement pushing and tRump et al, there will full churches in lots of places for the next two weekends. Then about April 27 alarm bells will be ringing in surprising places. However the lag in awareness for the red hatters will be one to five days later. Right about when tRump will crowing about "opening up" and people will surging together in groups as if released and not ready to tolerate the slightest bit of physical distancing.
By then it will be too late.
