Where's muh crisis bump that every president since Washington got?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[underpants]

1. Nature

Trump had the deal of a lifetime sitting in his lap. The Manhattan West Side Yards deal in the 80’s. A mammoth tax abatement funded project that would have created Television City and forever changed the NYC skyline. Trump would have a crowning achievement to show that the kid from Queens had CONQUERED the Manhattan real estate crowd. All he had to do was appease different stake holders (including Mayor Koch). Give a bit here and there but keep his eye on the prize, the big picture. Literally just sit in meetings and public hearings and nod, say a few nice words, connect on basic human levels. He just couldn’t do it.

Fast forward to now.

All Trump has had to do from even after he ignored the virus, ignored the Obama devised playbook, mocked, scorned, and thought he was “punching down” on the Libs and media was to show some compassion. Some empathy. 1 minute of each segment of the late afternoon blunderstorms to connect on a human level. People would have rallied around him at least more if not washing away 20-30% of the fumes from the dumpster fire. He just couldn’t do it.

[UncleNoel]

2. I don' understand 538s figures. 538: 44.0 to 52.1. I get 43 to 54 (rounded)

Below on the link of this thread see below. If you average the figures for their polls given bot6h actual and adjusted it seems to come up different than from the graph--at least for the polls given.



My averages below their five polls.



Have I gone astray. I get about 1 point lower and 2 points higher for a span of 11 rather than their spanof 8.

So it would seem that Trump is even worst off than their figures. Where have I gone wrong?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Nate's formula is complex.

Besides weighing the polls for accuracy and giving the more accurate polls more weight he weighs them for recency.

[ProfessorGAC]

4. I Read His How We Do It Piece

I'm unimpressed. What he assumes is his accuracy weighting methods are valid. There's scant evidence of that.
I just look at the list and aggregate the "as is" numbers. With 10 or 12 polls, the accuracy issue is smoothed out enough to be indicative of overall extrapolation.