Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April
Over the past week, the number of deaths thought to be caused by COVID-19 has nearly doubled, from about 16,000 to 30,000. New York City changed the way it counts its death toll on Tuesday to include people who did not receive a positive COVID-19 test but who were likely to have died from the virus. That increased the number of the city’s coronavirus death estimate by 3,700 to more than 10,000.
The number of cases and fatalities continue to change rapidly, so to get a better understanding of where they’re headed, we’ve been following a weekly survey of infectious-disease researchers from institutions around the U.S.
This week’s survey, conducted April 13 and 14, shows that the expert consensus is that reported deaths will increase to around 47,000 by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82,000 by that time. The experts also think fatalities are most likely to peak in May, but they still see about a 1 in 3 chance that deaths won’t peak until June or later. They also expect that between eight and 11 states will report more than 1,000 deaths by May 1.
The survey — organized by Thomas McAndrew and Nicholas Reich, both biostatisticians at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst — asks experts to either assign a probability to an outcome or to give a most-likely, best-case and worst-case estimate. Structuring the survey in this way lets the organizers generate probabilistic consensus forecasts, a tool that can answer questions about how likely various scenarios are.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-the-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-will-hit-50000-by-the-end-of-april/
Winning!!!!!
= new reply since forum marked as read
Here is the link to my Journal post: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13306374
3) You are upset because I correctly called you out on your claim in another thread, where you still have not presented evidence, so you take up cudgels here. That is cheap.
Your post re broken tests:
My response:
You have presented NO EVIDENCE.
Extraordinary claims with no evidence can be dismissed correctly with no evidence.
Your claim is dismissed.
Hours later you still refuse to present evidence and respond:
My response:
You've had ample opportunity.
You have no evidence.
Claim dismissed.
Around the same time you show up here all aggrieved and hurt to respond to my reasoned analysis that does include facts with your attack post.
....
Here is the text of my Journal post. The fact (evidence) is that there are already at least 37,000 deaths. Further evidence is the hard-edged calculations. The assumption (yes assumptions clearly stated as such) posit an immediate six week or four week decline. To presume an even faster decline would be extraordinary, so I don't posit that:
There are already 37,000 deaths. It won't be 25% of the current rate for 3 months
The rate of new deaths seems to have declined to less than 7% per day, a good sign. If it is 6% for a week, then 5% for a week, the 4, 3, 2, 1 ... six weeks.
1.06 ^ 7 = 1.50. Times 37,000 = 54,600
1.05 ^ 7 = 1.47. Times 54,600 = 80,700
1.04 ^ 7 = 1.31. Times 80,700 = 106,000
1.03 ^ 7 = 1.23. Times 106,000 = 130,000
1.02 ^ 7 = 1.15. Times 130,000 = 149,000
1.01 ^ 7 = 1.07. Times 149,000 = 160,000
If we do better: Four weeks ago there were 100 deaths. If we posit we are at the peak and can have a four week decline ahead of us, ...
1.055 ^ 7 = 1.45. Times 37,000 = 53,800
1.040 ^ 7 = 1.31. Times 53,800 = 70,500
1.025 ^ 7 = 1.19. Times 70,500 = 83,800
1.010 ^ 7 = 1.07. Times 83,800 = 89,700
(I have retained extra digits in my calculations, so yours probably won't match digit for digit but should be very similar).
So my best case is at least 90,000 deaths. I think it is more likely to be the first scenario, perhaps 160,000 deaths. But it could easily be more depending on how red hatters roll the dice in the next 10 to 14 days. https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13306154 We could be soon into a second wave, a red hat wave and go beyond 160,000.
....
They are showing signs of blowing up (rapid climb in infections). This hasn't and can't (at this stage) penetrate the awareness of baggers, except perhaps that plant in South Dakota. The Wisconsin data is showing that infection starts up again 5 days later and is detected a couple of days after (lab test round trip) and confirmed a couple days later when 3 day moving average confirms it. Call it 10 days.
With the body bagger movement pushing and tRump et al, there will full churches in lots of places for the next two weekends. Then about April 27 alarm bells will be ringing in surprising places. However the lag in awareness for the red hatters will be one to five days later. Right about when tRump will crowing about "opening up" and people will surging together in groups as if released and not ready to tolerate the slightest bit of physical distancing.
By then it will be too late.
....
I'm on record.
What have you got?
Nothing.
