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unblock

(52,208 posts)
Sun Apr 19, 2020, 11:51 AM Apr 2020

covid-19 spread is limited by two things: herd immunity and social isolation measures

at the moment, in america, there have been roughly 3.7 million tests in a population of over 328 million.
that some people are given the test multiple times, so let's assume just 1% of all americans have been tested.

that really means we're shooting in the dark in terms of knowing where we're at in terms of herd immunity.

if we assume everyone tested has immunity (not the case, because obviously, some never tested positive, but let's go with this), and we assume everyone not tested doesn't have immunity (also not the case, because not everyone who gets covid-19 gets tested), and let's further assume that everyone who got it now has immunity (not clear, as some people appear to get re-infected).

obviously, many simplifying assumptions, but what can you do without adequate testing?

in any event, this means that whatever the r0 infection rate was when no one was infected, without social isolation, it's going to be virtually the same if we were to lift all social isolation measures because 99% of the potentially infected people are still potentially infected. that 1% reduction in the susceptible population isn't going to put a very big dent in the r0 rate.


the best that we can do is massive testing, with relaxation of social distancing measures *only* in specific areas that local herd immunity permits.

that requires massive and repeated testing and responsible behavior by government, businesses and individuals.

nothing like anything donnie is stamping his feet for.

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covid-19 spread is limited by two things: herd immunity and social isolation measures (Original Post) unblock Apr 2020 OP
So far, there is no confirmed immunity to it... 2naSalit Apr 2020 #1
Exactly correct. . FarPoint Apr 2020 #2
... 2naSalit Apr 2020 #3
Folks just get numb with these simple details. FarPoint Apr 2020 #4

2naSalit

(86,586 posts)
1. So far, there is no confirmed immunity to it...
Sun Apr 19, 2020, 11:56 AM
Apr 2020

people are still testing positive long after recovery and being reinfected after testing negative. So we appear just as far from herd immunity as we are from herd testing.

FarPoint

(12,352 posts)
4. Folks just get numb with these simple details.
Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:54 PM
Apr 2020

Knowing our boundaries overall is life saving....we are in this for the long haul.

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