Another month? Computer modelers estimate how much longer coronavirus shutdowns should last

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The University of Washington epidemiologists who set up a widely watched model projecting the future course of the coronavirus outbreak have translated those projections into suggested time frames for loosening strict shelter-at-home orders across the country.

For Washington state, that time frame is the week of May 18, which is two weeks longer than the current expiration date for Gov. Jay Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order.

Based on the current projections from UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, four states — Montana, Vermont, West Virginia and Hawaii — could loosen their restrictions as early as the week of May 4. Other states, ranging from Massachusetts and North Dakota to Arizona, may have to wait until the week of June 8 or later.

Those projected dates could shift, of course, depending on how the institute tweaks its models, which it’s done repeatedly over the past month. And in the end, it’s up to the nation’s governors, not researchers, to determine how strict their social distancing policies are.

The White House has been pressing governors to start “opening” some states by May 1

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-month-computer-modelers-estimate-065307753.html

[Newest Reality]

1. That helps...

That helps a little. They are just models, though.

Have they included the "protesting for our freedumbs and get me to the beach on time" vector in that model? That might be significant in a couple weeks or so if my model holds.

[jimfields33]

10. Seattle opened up some stuff like Texas is going to

I hope it will be ok. These states are at least going slow. MSNBC was just discussing this. Mississippi is having an eye of the storm right now.

[msongs]

2. main issue in hawaii is when/how to let tourists back in. isolated islands are

easier to manage (like hawaii, new zealand, iceland) as long as you keep people out

[OilemFirchen]

3. That's one of the weaknesses of the UW's model.

It continues to base assumptions on current mitigation strategies, while it's now obvious that rules are being relaxed nationwide.

[Squinch]

5. Even before people were relaxing the rules, 60,000 was always just ridiculously low.

[Squinch]

4. .

[Brainfodder]

6. VACCINE VACCINE VACCINE?

I know, it's all about $...

But this is going to get worse, between non-believers of the virus issue and those pushing for an end already, and those jackasses that don't listen to anyone else.

The STUPIDS, I am stuck dodging entirely until a vaccine!

Good luck!

Wave 2 should be kicking ass already by the start of summer, fools opening up way too soon.

Seems obvious from the sidelines.

BUT.... a$$holes.

[unc70]

7. Read some of the comments on this story

Really scary the complete denial of reality by nearly all those posting.

[no_hypocrisy]

8. May? June? CV-19 will still exist no matter the plateaus and lower numbers.

And the infections will rise again as new hosts will be found for the Virus to multiply and to reproduce. It won't be gone just because our vainglorious leader says it is.

What happens if governors open their public schools again and some teachers refuse to return because of due concerns for their health and safety -- and mortality? Would you return to your favorite restaurant for a sit-down of ca. two hours, being less than 3 feet away from other dinner patrons? How can you SEE whether someone else has the Virus?

It's a fools' mission to "re-open" anything before there is an effective vaccine with tests.

[uponit7771]

9. This is irresponsible, there are WAY too many assumptions made in the model for it to be realistic.

Widespread testing - means nothing related to amplitude and frequency of test, not clear
Contact tracing - to what depth?
infections drop below one per million people <<< WTF ... no one is near this.

They should take our present course then map how long on present course.

This is irresponsible

[Nay]

11. We only have 4.5 - 5 months before all the schools will theoretically open. You know

what's going to happen -- kids ARE going back to school, because by then parents will all be forced back to work as they are penniless. So, the end of social distancing WILL be when schools open. Kids will be infecting everyone around them.

Honestly, we old folks will just have to hope we don't die of it, cuz we're getting it. I had hoped for reason to prevail and a national "get a man on the moon" type of crash program would be instituted to put our best minds onto the search for vaccine/meds/etc., but all we are going to get is rich assholes trying to figure out how to profit from misery and death.

[Victor_c3]

13. This would be a perfect opportunity for us to institute a universal basic income

To me, it’s the obvious solution to the economic woes. A little direct stimulus to the masses works a little bit, a lot more stimulus to the masses would work even better.

[Victor_c3]

12. I completely understand why some people are eager to reopen the economy

At the same time it’s totally reckless to reopen anything at this point in time.

The economy is taking a beating, people are on the verge of losing their life’s savings, people need income to pay bills and are getting desperate.

If we had a much more robust safety net in place and even universal basic income, our economy wouldn’t be on the precipice of destruction. Basic needs such as housing and food could provided for while non-essential workers wait out the virus.

Democratic Socialism is the answer to the problems we’re facing, not adherence to the same system that is largely responsible for the mess we’re in.

[Nay]

14. Agree. Basic income AND universal health care. We would be in such better shape. But

you know what is going to happen -- we can't have all that because we already went into debt over coronavirus!!!!