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Tue Apr 21, 2020, 05:32 PM

IHME COVID-19 deaths model was low by 3K yesterday, looks like down by 4K today by days end

I don't know why they haven't updated their parameters in more than a week. We will be over 45K, maybe close to 46K by the end of today.



https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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Reply IHME COVID-19 deaths model was low by 3K yesterday, looks like down by 4K today by days end (Original post)
Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 OP
Srkdqltr Apr 2020 #1
Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #4
uponit7771 Apr 2020 #6
Squinch Apr 2020 #8
PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2020 #2
ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #3
PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2020 #9
ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #10
PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2020 #12
Srkdqltr Apr 2020 #5
Indykatie Apr 2020 #7
ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #11
D_Master81 Apr 2020 #13
Takket Apr 2020 #14
blitzen Apr 2020 #15
Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #16

Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 05:42 PM

1. Interesting... what is IHME?? What does this mean?

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Response to Srkdqltr (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 05:55 PM

4. The University of Washington Covid19 death projection model

Shoulda clarified

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Response to Srkdqltr (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 07:06 PM

6. Its also the model Birx said they based their models off of

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Response to Srkdqltr (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 07:08 PM

8. It's also crap.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 05:49 PM

2. Yes, what does IHME stand for?

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 05:50 PM

3. Institute Of Health Metrics & Evaluation

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #3)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:39 PM

9. Thank you.

Not everyone knows all the abbreviations out there.

Along with posts with zero context, using abbreviations that are not totally common is my other complaint here at DU.

And it's not as if that's a well-known institute, unlike say, the CDC.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #9)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:45 PM

10. They Appear To Be...

...a think tank of sorts for public health compiling lots of health data, outcomes, treatments, and then construct models to both identify cost predictions for major health events (for industry) and predictive trends of treatments and outcomes.
On their website, their descriptions seem a lot like actuarial science, though not exclusively. But some of the models were described in a way I would explain a proportional hazard analysis, which can be used to predict safety & environmental event performance in industry.
I didn't go through that many of their publications though, so I'm broadly extrapolating.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #10)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:49 PM

12. Appreciate that additional explanation.

Thank you again.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 06:27 PM

5. IHA. IMHO.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 07:07 PM

7. There are A Few Trackers Out There - I Like The Tracker Below Best of The Ones I Have Seen

It gives detail by each State and I can go back to the day before if I want to see how that data compares.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Response to Indykatie (Reply #7)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:46 PM

11. That's Where I Go

Most often. I also go to IDPH because it's Illinois specific and the track by county & area code.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:54 PM

13. Saw they revised to 66k on CNN

I still donít see how this is possible when weíre having 2000 deaths a day at this point and thereís only going to be 20k more in the next 3 months? If itís less than 90,000 I think we should feel fortunate. Thereís been 25,000 deaths in the past couple of weeks.

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Response to D_Master81 (Reply #13)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:56 PM

14. i can only assume the models aren't taking into account......

that the virus spreads at different rates with different peaks EVERYWHERE in the country........ it is only now making serious inroads into many areas.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:05 PM

15. They've been crappy re: deaths, but I think their main aim was to predict hospital capacity...

at any rate, that is what they have been most useful for--predicting the time frame for peak demand on the healthcare system in various locales.

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Response to blitzen (Reply #15)

Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:16 PM

16. Not a terrible model

It looked better last week.
Administration has been using its deaths projection as political cover so thatís where my attention has been focused.

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