Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
IHME COVID-19 deaths model was low by 3K yesterday, looks like down by 4K today by days end (Original Post) Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 OP
Interesting... what is IHME?? What does this mean? Srkdqltr Apr 2020 #1
The University of Washington Covid19 death projection model Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #4
Its also the model Birx said they based their models off of uponit7771 Apr 2020 #6
It's also crap. Squinch Apr 2020 #8
Yes, what does IHME stand for? PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2020 #2
Institute Of Health Metrics & Evaluation ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #3
Thank you. PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2020 #9
They Appear To Be... ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #10
Appreciate that additional explanation. PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2020 #12
IHA. IMHO. Srkdqltr Apr 2020 #5
There are A Few Trackers Out There - I Like The Tracker Below Best of The Ones I Have Seen Indykatie Apr 2020 #7
That's Where I Go ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #11
Saw they revised to 66k on CNN D_Master81 Apr 2020 #13
i can only assume the models aren't taking into account...... Takket Apr 2020 #14
They've been crappy re: deaths, but I think their main aim was to predict hospital capacity... blitzen Apr 2020 #15
Not a terrible model Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #16

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,746 posts)
9. Thank you.
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:39 PM
Apr 2020

Not everyone knows all the abbreviations out there.

Along with posts with zero context, using abbreviations that are not totally common is my other complaint here at DU.

And it's not as if that's a well-known institute, unlike say, the CDC.

ProfessorGAC

(64,422 posts)
10. They Appear To Be...
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:45 PM
Apr 2020

...a think tank of sorts for public health compiling lots of health data, outcomes, treatments, and then construct models to both identify cost predictions for major health events (for industry) and predictive trends of treatments and outcomes.
On their website, their descriptions seem a lot like actuarial science, though not exclusively. But some of the models were described in a way I would explain a proportional hazard analysis, which can be used to predict safety & environmental event performance in industry.
I didn't go through that many of their publications though, so I'm broadly extrapolating.

Indykatie

(3,691 posts)
7. There are A Few Trackers Out There - I Like The Tracker Below Best of The Ones I Have Seen
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 07:07 PM
Apr 2020

It gives detail by each State and I can go back to the day before if I want to see how that data compares.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

ProfessorGAC

(64,422 posts)
11. That's Where I Go
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:46 PM
Apr 2020

Most often. I also go to IDPH because it's Illinois specific and the track by county & area code.

D_Master81

(1,822 posts)
13. Saw they revised to 66k on CNN
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:54 PM
Apr 2020

I still don’t see how this is possible when we’re having 2000 deaths a day at this point and there’s only going to be 20k more in the next 3 months? If it’s less than 90,000 I think we should feel fortunate. There’s been 25,000 deaths in the past couple of weeks.

Takket

(21,424 posts)
14. i can only assume the models aren't taking into account......
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 10:56 PM
Apr 2020

that the virus spreads at different rates with different peaks EVERYWHERE in the country........ it is only now making serious inroads into many areas.

blitzen

(4,572 posts)
15. They've been crappy re: deaths, but I think their main aim was to predict hospital capacity...
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:05 PM
Apr 2020

at any rate, that is what they have been most useful for--predicting the time frame for peak demand on the healthcare system in various locales.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
16. Not a terrible model
Tue Apr 21, 2020, 11:16 PM
Apr 2020

It looked better last week.
Administration has been using its deaths projection as political cover so that’s where my attention has been focused.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»IHME COVID-19 deaths mode...