Trump's standing in battleground states may be slipping

[riversedge]

Over 6 months away. anything could happen!!


Trump's standing in battleground states may be slipping

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/politics/2020-polls-battleground-states/index.html?utm_content=2020-04-23T18%3A02%3A35&utm_medium=social&utm_term=image&utm_source=twCNNp


CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Harry Enten

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN Updated 10:10 AM ET, Thu April 23, 2020

(CNN)President Donald Trump's path to reelection was always going to hinge on his performance in a handful of swing states. That path looks more perilous for the President in a series of recent high-quality polls.

Trump won the presidency in 2016 by winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. Previous polling has suggested that phenomenon could repeat itself in November: A lot of data suggested that Trump was, indeed, stronger in the battleground states than he was nationally.

But polling over the past month indicates his standing in those battleground states could be fading, bringing those numbers more in line with his national polling.



Here's a look at recent polls from Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all states Trump won by about a point or less in 2016:

Florida: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden led Trump by six points in a University of North Florida poll and four points in a Quinnipiac University poll. The previous polling average of probability polls had Biden up 2 points.
Michigan: Biden was up by eight points in a Fox News poll compared to the prior polling average of probability polls that had him up five points.
Pennsylvania: Biden held an eight-point advantage in a Fox News poll, while he was up just three points in the longer term probability polling average.
Wisconsin: Biden was ahead by three points in a Marquette University Law School poll. The longer term probability polling average had the race tied.
Now, we're just looking at four polls here, so I don't want to make too much of it. It is interesting, however, that Biden seems to be doing better than his longer term averages in this limited state polling data, while he is not doing the same in the national polling. ...............................

[AleksS]

1. My question though is:

Wasn’t Hillary ahead in those states at about this time in 2016 too though?

[Claustrum]

2. I believe Hillary's numbers were in the mid 40s while Trump is in low 40s with 10+% undecided

Then somehow, most of those undecided broke for Trump on election day and gave him his win. One thing I learned in 2016 was that you shouldn't celebrate a poll unless our candidate gets high 40s or over 50% to be safe. I think Biden is currently hitting the 50% so it's a better sign than Hillary's in 2016.