Had an interesting discussion with an acquaintance who politics I didn't know

[FightingIrish]

My wife and I encountered him on our daily walk. It started with the usual pleasantries for these times. He segued into his unhappiness with things being shut down. He remarked how well Sweden was doing with herd immunity. He quoted Georgia Governor Kemp’s remarks about how poorly his economy was faring. He made the mistake of adding that he heard him interviewed on Fox News. Then he rattled off some statistics about the normal influenza infection rates and how this wasn’t much worse.

I could sense my wife’s outrage going to full boil. I tried to counter with some reasonable facts demonstrating that COVID-19 is far deadlier than the flu. I pointed out that Governor Inslee’s policies had made a huge difference in our infections and deaths relative to other states. I shared some scientific facts about how this virus ravages its victim’s bodies in ways that influenza doesn’t. He wasn’t phased and my wife had already started walking away in disgust. Sensibly, I followed her, regretting that I had gone out unprepared to confront a Fox News infected mind.

I went home and started researching annual influenza infections. Yes, there are an alarming number of Americans who die every flu season. The numbers vary wildly from year to year and the CDC has a lot of ambiguity in their numbers. 2017-18, Trump’s first full flu season, was the worst since 2010 with as many as 61,000 deaths in the United States.

At the peak of the 2019-20 Influenza season, which runs from October 2019 to April 2020, 26,000,000 Americans Had contracted Influenza, even with a vaccine available. 14,000 Had died. So far COVID19 has infected 1,000,000 and killed almost 57,000. Given that there is no vaccine, it is not inconceivable that we could have the same number of infections or more in this pandemic. Without the actions that state and local governments have taken, that would be highly likely. Given the lethality of this virus, more than 2,000,000 American deaths is not unthinkable. Today Trump indicated that that number is his new bar. Anything under that is a great job.

My point is, go armed with facts not Fox. There is no vaccine or cure for stupid.

[mr_lebowski]

1. Sweden has multiple times more deaths per capita than it's nearest neighbors who have lockdowns ...

Norway, Denmark, and especially Finland are doing MUCH better with infections and deaths.

They also have a notably higher rate of infection, despite having tested a much smaller % of their population than their neighbors.

It's also good to know that flu numbers like 26,000,000 are guesstimates made after the fact based on a bunch of well-known/understood markers. By no means were there 26,000,000 tested for the flu in that season. Which is significantly different from the 1,000,000 actually-known cases of CV infection.

[GoCubsGo]

6. Yep Also, what they're doing is not "herd immunity."

Can't have that if people aren't immune to the disease, which isn't going to happen without a working vaccine. What Sweden is doing is trying to isolate those who are most at risk of dying from the virus, and assuming that the rest just get a "mild" infection, after which they'll become immune. They're basically treating it as one big "chicken pox party."

[mr_lebowski]

8. Precisely! (nt)

[KY_EnviroGuy]

10. Sweden is playing a very dangerous game with this disease, IMO.

Medical science does not yet know the long-term after effects of COVID-19 and there's no certainty we can develop significant long-term immunity. They could be setting themselves up for far more expensive medical system costs for decades.

I sort of understand the stoicism of the Swedish people but they're risking a swing toward the right wing by allowing this disease to run its course.


KY.............

[kurtcagle]

2. Also put this into perspective

The number of influenza deaths has been about 48K a year, or about 4,000 per month. Most of the covid deaths in the US have occurred between about March 15 and today, where we hit nearly 60K deaths in the space of six weeks. That translates, if annualized, into 40,000 deaths a month, or potentially 500,000 deaths per year. In practice, it's not likely to be as bad as that. but it's still an order of magnitude larger than the flu, something that usually doesn't get stated by Fox news.

[lunatica]

4. Very good and salient points

Thank you. Today I heard that Sweden has had as many deaths as we have. So their much vaunted success is false. And this is not over. Trump beating the drum to go back to work is premature. The virus is still killing people in large numbers. And it will continue to kill.

And something that’s been forgotten is that the survivors will have all kinds of problems for the rest of their lives. They’re finding out it gets into the bloodstream and attack the heart and the brain and other organs and makes the blood thicken and coagulate and causes strokes. We’re going to be dealing with the after effects of this virus for a long time.

[mr_lebowski]

9. As many deaths would have to be per capita not raw numbers (nt)

[rgbecker]

12. My go to site is Worldometer for Corona virus updates.

Currently death rates per 1 million US = 171, Sweden = 225. If the US had Sweden's death rate, Total US deaths would be 74,300 rather than the current 56527....that's 17,773 dead bodies difference. Good Luck Sweden on your herd immunity thingy.

By the way, I suggest anyone encountering someone promoting "herd immunity" to do the following. Invite them for a drive down to the nearest hospital and let them roam the hallways unprotected for a half an hour. That will get their immune system going and they can then go get their hair cut or whatever they need to do so badly. Their logic system (None) won't be able to handle that so don't worry about them taking you up on your offer.

[bringthePaine]

3. sad but true! "no vaccine or cure", yet hope lies in the inferior numbers of the terminally stupid

[gibraltar72]

5. My go to when dealing with Foxers is to say

I'm betting your news source is one that filed papers in court saying false statements are free speech. Some variation of that usually shuts them up.

[rgbecker]

13. LOL! n/t

[Hortensis]

7. Offer a scary fact: There's still no evidence yet of even

temporary immunity in recovered patients.

This may be one of the many viruses that don't confer immunity or immunity that wanes too quickly. We do know people catch "colds" from other coronaviruses again and again. Herd immunity may turn out to be as impossible for this killer as it is for the common cold.

Maybe worry on, imagining what that could mean, especially with the permanent damage it's causing to lungs, hearts, kidneys, brains, throughout the body of some unfortunates. It might be overkill to point out that some viral epidemics cannot be stopped with vaccines, and we don't know yet if this one can be.

[LeftInTX]

11. I was looking at the stats and there are some very high death rates in europe

belgium 7331/47,334 cases = 15.5%
that's high

us is 5%

[mopinko]

14. they are pounding hard on their cherry picked "data". it sounds so truthy.

have a trumpkin in my life, and they are making a big mistake.
they want the sheep to only trust them, but right now numbers on this are everywhere, and they just hit a different chord.

i tried to talk to him about other info sources. he is a proud italian, and i keep pushing him to watch cuomo.
but he was practically wailing that "i just need to understand this data".
he doesnt have a super strong math background, but he's better than most.
i have been able to take a couple of his arguments apart, and ridicule his grasp of the maths, and it stings like hell.

numbers are funny things. they are playing w a different part of the brain. it will hurt them.
when he has to pay off on our body count wager, i may need to take a vallium beforehand so i dont gloat so hard. his number was busted in week 2. it's just a matter of me getting halfway to mine, as his was 8k.