Justin Amash will INCREASE the chance of Trump's being elected

[pnwmom]

by giving unhappy centrists and old-fashioned Republicans someone else to vote for to express their displeasure with Trump.

No one should welcome his participation in the race. We need every vote we can get for Biden -- none peeled away by Amash.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Justin Amash will DECREASE the chance of Trump's being elected

by giving unhappy centrists and old-fashioned Republicans someone else to vote for to express their displeasure with Trump.

These people aren't voting for Biden, period. They'd hold their noses and vote for Trump again rather than vote for Biden who by November Trump will have painted as Chairman Mao to most Republicans.

[SWBTATTReg]

3. I think your scenario is most likely.

[mainer]

7. I agree with you. Dems will only vote for Dems

But Amash will split the GOP vote. Trump's got to be worried about this third-party interloper.

[stopdiggin]

15. Yep. I don't think the OP thought this through. (nt)

[SWBTATTReg]

2. No he won't. He's an insignificant little nobody, that won't get a damn vote. NT...

[50 Shades Of Blue]

4. K & R

Amash is an egotistical tool who knows he has zero chance of getting elected president. Despite all his high falutin' talk, he doesn't care if he helps get Trump reelected as long as he can get his own ego stroked.

[Cirque du So-What]

5. I cannot envision small-government libertarians voting for Joe Biden anyway

Better they vote for Amash than Orange Foolius.

[Budi]

6. Amash only has to affect a couple key States to accomplish what he's been called to do.

It's in the playbook of the KOCH Libertarian 3rd party campaigns.

[tritsofme]

8. If he takes votes out of the bucket you describe, it's about as good as a vote for Biden.

If these are voters who would not consider voting for a Democrat, then denying that vote to Trump is a good thing.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. Amash needs to get his ego in gear and get out of the way. He is not leading. . . . nt

[Brainfodder]

10. STFU about being re-elected please, it's as ridiculous as it gets....

He can only win if he grifts it.

Otherwise we are stupid AF and there will be a mass exit.

Including me.

I should not need to explain.

8p

[sop]

11. I can't imagine Amash, a conservative Freedom Caucus Republican, will peel off many Biden votes.

I see Trump losing many more votes to Amash. A good number of "unhappy centrists and old-fashioned Republicans" will probably abandon Trump and vote for Amash, but most of these folks were probably not going to vote for Biden anyway.

Ross Perot helped Bill Clinton get elected by peeling off more George H.W. Bush's supporters than Clinton voters. I don't think Clinton would have won in '92 without Perot's third party candidacy. I see Amash as a net gain for Biden, particularly if he focuses his attacks on Trump.

[tritsofme]

14. I would just point out that exits polls at the time found Perot voters spitting roughly evenly

between Bush and Clinton, were he not on the ballot.

I think your analysis is right on Amash, but his impact is likely to be very small, though 2016 proved that can also be very important.

[sop]

18. Did Perot cost Bush the '92 election? It's not clear. I've read differing opinions on the subject,

but George W. Bush himself (and his family) believed Perot cost his father a second term. Perhaps that was just a handy excuse to ease the pain of their loss.

I recall a film about the '92 election, “The Perot Myth," that concluded Perot didn't cost Bush the election after analyzing the election data. My own recollection is that Perot brought out a lot of disaffected Republican voters to the polls, people who had voted for Reagan in '80 and '84, then for Bush in '88, but were angry about Bush's so-called "economic betrayals" and probably would have stayed home had Perot not run in '92.

[Voltaire2]

12. that is not the way third parties work.

Every vote that otherwise would have gone to Trump or nobody but instead went to Amash, which would be about 90-99.999% of libertarian party voters in every previous election, helps Biden.

The stronger the libertarian party candidate is the better we do.

Just apply the same analysis done here all the time with respect to the green party.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

13. He hurts Biden in Michigan

[link:https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/05/amash-presidential-bid-hurts-biden-michigan/1331256001/|]

"He will not take away Republican votes from Trump. What he will do is give independent voters who don’t want to support President Trump an outlet to not vote for the Democrat. And if you look at who or what would be moving toward Amash, it is particularly independent men."

Biden's lead among independent voters falls from 13 percentage points to a tied race with Trump when Amash is among the options, with Amash drawing 16 percent of independent voters' support, according to the survey. 

We'll have to see if other polls pick up similar results.

[stopdiggin]

16. simply don't believe it.

People can tell pollsters almost anything in April ..
And then be supremely aware that they are just pissing away a vote in November.

So .. you're essentially talking about "independents" (a highly suspect term in any case) .. who really aren't bothered by the prospect of a 2 term Trump presidency. I strongly suggest these are Trump voters. Start to finish

[safeinOhio]

19. The polls show Biden up by 10 or more in

Michigan. The Detroit News is not my choice for where the state stands.

[Jake Stern]

17. Then I guess we better get to convincing voters Joe is the right choice

Like it or not, it's Amash's right to run for president and there isn't a damn thing we can legally do to stop him.

The only thing we can do is keep trying our damndest to convince voters to chose Biden.

[SoonerPride]

20. He will have less impact than sexism did in 2016.

I have no fear of Amash.

He is a "nothingberder."

[kcr]

21. That is backwards

Those are all people who would have typically voted republican and did vote republican in 2016. They're either going to still vote republican or vote for Amash. If he as any effect, Amash splits the right side of the vote. Not our side.

[pnwmom]

23. He could easily take votes from centrists who aren't strongly attached to either party

but hate Trump.

[kcr]

24. Really. He's a big nothingberger.

Link to tweet

It's clear it won't be easy for him either way.

[pnwmom]

25. That's what people thought about Ross Perot before he began his 3rd party run. nt

[kcr]

26. And guess who lost that one n/t

[pnwmom]

31. So? The point is he took votes away from both candidates even though

hardly anyone outside his state had heard from him before he began his run.

[kcr]

32. The evidence regarding Perot was taken from exit polls

Which aren't reliable. Perot didn't run a campaign to appeal to Dems. He clearly ran a campaign to appeal to voters dissatisfied with the incumbent and the status quo. And Bush lost.

There is no way that Amash will somehow manage to campaign as successfully as Perot, AND Trump will see success where Bush didn't, especially given how awfully he's doing. Both of those things will not happen

[blitzen]

22. Watching him now on MSNBC, he's a douchebag full of platitudes n/t

[ProfessorGAC]

27. He's The Biggest Threat To...

...the next Gary Johnson. Defectors of the dem party will go Steinian and tantrum vote Green.
Centrists who would vote for Amash are neither centrists nor a potential Biden voter.
I think you've overestimated the legs of Amash's windmill jousting.

[Ilsa]

28. This morning the pundits said trump campaign

was thrilled tha Amash might run 3rd Party. They think he'll draw "never trumpers" from Biden.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

29. I don't buy it. He's too far to the right.

He quit the R party (and the Tea Party) because they were too liberal.

He' not going to attract the Repub voters who are tempted to vote for Biden.

[smirkymonkey]

30. Just curious, is Bill Weld still in the running?

Haven't heard a peep from him lately.

[RhodeIslandOne]

33. People looking for excuses not to vote for Democrats will never vote for them.