New U. Minnesota study of Covid19 - duration, herd immunity threshhold, predictions

[Bucky]

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-19-cidrap-viewpoint

Their findings include:

The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months

Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, 60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic

This may be complicated by the fact that we don’t yet know the duration of immunity to natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. Based on seasonal coronaviruses, we can anticipate that even if immunity declines after exposure, there may still be some protection against disease severity and reduced contagiousness, but this remains to be assessed for SARS-CoV-2.

There's could be 3 {possible} Scenarios following the first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020:

Scenario 1: a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1-to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021

Scenario 2: a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021

Scenario 3: a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern.

Whichever scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity

(summary from Worldometer.com)

[Initech]

1. Fuck.

[SunSeeker]

2. No good news here.

[Squinch]

3. "It'll be like a miracle."

[cwydro]

19. Yeah.

Hope they keep repeating that.

[Wounded Bear]

4. "Scenario 3: a "slow burn" of ongoing transmission and case occurrence"

This actually the goal of all this social distancing. The idea being to keep the rate of incidence at a level that the hospitals and clinics can manage. Many of the fatalities happen when there is insufficient equipment and manpower to handle the basic load.

No matter what the outcome, it all depends on testing, followed by contact tracing. Without comprehensive testing we'll never know the full extent of the infection among the population. Frankly, we haven't really tested enough to get a reasonable statistical estimate, let alone an actual count, especially since we've only been testing symptomatic people. Likely, the true extent of the disease is several times larger than the numbers we're seeing.

But we don't need no universal healthcare in the good old U S of A.

[Yavin4]

5. And this is why we need a global, comprehensive testing protocol.

Test, contain, and track is the only way to suppress these waves. The president should be working with our allies to develop an international testing program with the goal of testing 50% of the world's population. That's what the "leader of the free world" would do.

It's not happening not just because Trump is incompetent. It's not happening because the Republicans do not want to use government to keep us safe. They don't want Americans to have any faith whatsoever in government as a problem solver. They want us to suffer, die, and accept our fate.

[Initech]

6. If you think Trump is bad, take a look at Brazil's Bolsonaro.

Or India's Modi. Or the Philippines' Duterte. There's no way any of those goons will work together, so I don't think we will be getting a global program for this. We may have to wait until the pandemic is over.

[Bucky]

10. I'm thinking about the anti-vaxxers, the gun protesters, the preppers...

All of Alex Jones's crowd whi're gonna raise holy hell when President Biden sends out vaccination teams. I'm thinking about all the preachers who will scream about putting them Mark of the Beast on people's foreheads when they get their shots.

[Initech]

16. Yeah after seeing Alex Jones saying he's going to go full cannibal...

These are definitely the people who we need to watch out for!

[Blue_true]

17. He is having his Hannibal Lecter fantasies. Pay the idiot no mind. nt

[Initech]

18. Yes, Clarice!!!

[alwaysinasnit]

7. K&R Thanks for posting.

[Takket]

8. I don't think 2 years is realistic........

We should have a vaccine way before then. if not then............ wow.... its going to be horrific

[Bucky]

9. I would be happy if you're right

I imagine there are probably some logistical challenges in producing, distributing, rolling out, and administering 320 million vaccines. Especially when you think about the number of vaccination specialists who'll need to go into Idaho or upper Michigan with SWAT protection squads.

So yeah, 15 to 18 months for production and another 7 to 10 months for distribution sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[FreeState]

11. Why would we have a vaccine by then?

The average time for an effective vaccine to be created and distributed is 10-15 years. Yes some are faster and we are hoping for one that is faster but I haven't seen any evidence of one that may come sooner other than Trumps insistence (hope I am wrong).

HIV still doesn't have a vaccine.

Edit to add that SARS took 20 months to get to a vaccine - so there is hope, but I don't see it being before 18 next summer (18 months from the outbreak).

[Takket]

12. basically the entire global medical research community is working on this........

expect governments to play fast and loose with the normal approval processes as well. if they see the vaccine being harmful to those with weakened immune systems, children, elderly, etc, they might still roll it out and just give it to those that are healthy to push us quicker to herd immunity.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/the-ars-covid-19-vaccine-primer-100-plus-in-the-works-8-in-clinical-trials/

[DrToast]

20. A lot of the SARS CoV-1 research gives us a head start

There are already numerous vaccines in human trials today.

[judeling]

13. These are not predictions per se

They are observations based on the influenza pandemics since 1700. While noting the differences between Covid-19 and influenza they use those pandemics to develop the scenarios.

But Osterholm is one of the best so take this really seriously and it is an easy read so I encourage you all to do so.

[kpete]

14. my brain hurt

but i read the whole thing, so thank you.

peace & wellness to you,
kp

[JCMach1]

15. Depends entirely on the natural R0 if it's at the R0 levels reported in Wuhan

We would need 90%