4 (or 5) countries that have flattened the curve

[denem]

Australia, New Zealand, South Korea & Taiwan.
(China is on top of transmission but who knows what the real numbers were)

The method? Go hard early and test, test, test.

Singapore tried extensive testing without a lockdown.
They failed.

[abqtommy]

1. That's a purty graph but I'm still not satisfied that we're getting or using accurate numbers...

I'm sure that the real numbers are way worse.

[denem]

4. The numbers for South Korea and New Zealand are pretty solid.

[exboyfil]

2. Probably best statistic I could think of would be

the over mortality numbers (medical deaths this year vs. last year).

[denem]

3. Mortality estimates do not indicate (by themselves) the number of cases.

One factor would be the quality and quantity of health care. Another is the unexplained variability in the mortality rate. For example, with the Diamond Princess, an older demographic, the figures are 712 cases, 13 deaths.

[Igel]

5. Wrong graph.

Not the curve that they have in mind. It's a redefinition by change of referent for the uninitiated, but no less a redefinition.



It's the rate of infection that they intend by "flattening the curve." Not the absolute number of infections.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTCC8PVsmhgI0wsvn9tdTYSuHn0ByOjXqnk8kGAYGLxkQuFiMDC&usqp=CAU

Note that if *that's* the way you're supposed to flatten the curve showing number of cases somehow they're magically undoing infections. "Yesterday we had 30,000 tests that came back positive. We re-examined them, and today there were only 25,000. Magically, 5000 of those infected yesterday were retroactively never infected!"

It's absurd.

[denem]

6. 'The curve' represents active serious cases.

[former9thward]

7. S. Korea did not shut down anything.

They did testing and contact tracing.

[denem]

8. They quarantined individual regions.

[former9thward]

9. They did not shutdown their economy.

They didn't know who had it. They did not test everyone in the country.