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haele

(12,654 posts)
Sat May 2, 2020, 03:53 PM May 2020

How would one actually count deaths from the flu?

I've heard that flu kills on average 50k people in the U.S. every year, but what is actually meant by that?
Is it the number of fatalities with no other contributing factors but the flu? Or does it include the number of fatalities in which the flu is a compromising factor that can trigger a stroke, heart attack or a fatal attack of a chronic condition?
Or is it only when otherwise healthy person who cannot take off from work, or thinks it's just a cold when the virus begins to attack the immune system or turns into pneumonia and can't get to a medical facility or doctor/nurse practitioner in time to be appropriately treated?
Whatever it is, it only makes sense that the same metric be used to establish COVID 19 deaths, not some random pulled out of the ass idea on what constitutes the cause of the event that finally kills someone.

Haele

6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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How would one actually count deaths from the flu? (Original Post) haele May 2020 OP
Can't count flu. Can estimate it, with wide margins. Covid is undercounted but see Excess Deaths Bernardo de La Paz May 2020 #1
Good question Proud Liberal Dem May 2020 #2
Flu deaths aren't recorded in most states. So the CDC takes the total number Squinch May 2020 #3
In reality, the number of flu deaths each year is a very broad PoindexterOglethorpe May 2020 #4
Doctors, coroners, or medical examiners determine the cause of death Chainfire May 2020 #5
I've never known anyone who died from the flu, JenniferJuniper May 2020 #6

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,001 posts)
1. Can't count flu. Can estimate it, with wide margins. Covid is undercounted but see Excess Deaths
Sat May 2, 2020, 04:05 PM
May 2020

The truth is coming out. You can't hide Excess Deaths.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,412 posts)
2. Good question
Sat May 2, 2020, 04:09 PM
May 2020

Thinking about how the Swine Flu apparently killed 12K in the US during the 2009-2010 season seemingly without anybody really batting an eye about it made me start wondering the same thing. Despite it having been declared a Pandemic during that period of time, it was barely mentioned, it didn't shut anything down (we even went to WDW in Summer 2009), it was not being tracked like COVID-19 is this year, and it was barely mentioned at all. I remember being a little worried about in Spring of 2009 when they first started talking about it (I've been petrified of a dangerous contagion ever since I read/saw The Stand) and remember that President Obama's nominee to HHS was being held up until it started becoming a major issue but that was pretty much it. Yet now Trump and right-wingers are declaring that to have been a disaster for President Obama at the time, seeking some kind of way to minimize COVID-19 for Trump- even though we have far surpassed that number of deaths in a tiny fraction of the time.

Squinch

(50,949 posts)
3. Flu deaths aren't recorded in most states. So the CDC takes the total number
Sat May 2, 2020, 04:10 PM
May 2020

of deaths by all respiratory causes (pneumonia, asthma, COPD, etc) and applies a magic formula and comes up with statements like, "The Flu killed somewhere between 16,000 and 60,000 Americans this year."

It's total bullshit.

Here is a very interesting article on the subject.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Note when the doctors ask each other, "Did you ever have a patient that died of flu?" One or two say that yes, they had one. Most say no. Then they consider other causes that kill tens of thousands of patients each year, like traffic accidents, opioid overdoses and gun violence. Each of these kills fewer each year than the CDC says are killed by flu. Yet the doctors having the conversation all say, "Oh, yeah, I see tons of those every year."

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,857 posts)
4. In reality, the number of flu deaths each year is a very broad
Sat May 2, 2020, 04:10 PM
May 2020

estimate, and the numbers given are not necessarily reliable.

With the Covid 19 deaths you can simply count how many more deaths occur in a given time frame than is typical. While not every excess death will necessarily be from Covid 19, it's a reasonable estimate.

Keep in mind that genuine experts are still quoting an extremely wide range of probably deaths from the 1918 flu epidemic.

Chainfire

(17,538 posts)
5. Doctors, coroners, or medical examiners determine the cause of death
Sat May 2, 2020, 04:43 PM
May 2020

Health departments gather the statistics. Some governors are restricting the release of the numbers. (Florida in particular)

When my mother-in-law died at home several years ago, a family member found her and called for an ambulance. A deputy showed up before they transported her body. The deputy got in contact with her attending physician who called her death from his office 45 miles away, so it is not always an exact science. In her case, she was old and had a long history of heart problems, so the doctor was comfortable in making the determination over the phone. Since no foul play was suspected, no autopsy was performed.

I don't seem to remember that these kinds of flu statistics were ever news stories before this virus. It may have been that I just wasn't paying attention. Using the deaths by previous outbreaks to excuse the failures to react to this one is a very thin argument no mater what standard is used. Bottom line is that if our government had reacted in a timely manner the spread of infection would have been less regardless of how many died from Bird Flu.

I certainly do not recall back in '76 when my wife and I got Swine Flu, that the government was telling us how much less of a danger it was than the Spanish flu, but my memory is imperfect. All I recall is how sick I was at the time.

JenniferJuniper

(4,512 posts)
6. I've never known anyone who died from the flu,
Sat May 2, 2020, 05:00 PM
May 2020

but I know three who have died from this plague. All under 65.

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