the april covid-19 numbers have been roughly stable

[unblock]

thanks to the stay-at-home orders and businesses that have wisely and prudently shutdown, especially in crowded cities and blue states, the april number have been more or less flat at 30k new cases daily and 2k deaths daily.

now, these numbers are certainly horrifying, but at least they're not growing markedly. but the important thing in terms of contemplating policy changes is that they're not coming down. there's nothing to indicate that covid-19 is going away, and there's nothing to indicate anything remotely approaching herd immunity.

effectively, nothing has changed over the course of april to believe that may will be any better. in fact, the lifting of stay-at-home orders and the "reopening" of the economy in red states gives us every reason to think that may will be notably worse than april.

30k daily new cases over the course of may is about another 900k new cases. we are testing a bit more. better that and my prediction of an actual increase in spread, i'm going to estimate this at 1.5 million new cases.

2k daily deaths over the course of may is about another 60k deaths (yes i know may has 31 days, these are approximations.) i'm going to up this and make my estimate 80k.


so by the end of may, i think we'll have close to 150,000 total deaths.

i also predict (well, hope), that some of the red states will return to their stay-at-home orders and june will show improvement.

[Tetrachloride]

1. Wisconsin is relatively low BUT the daily increase trend is up.

https://www.nbc15.com/content/news/DHS--570145031.html

Wisconsin DHS reported 346 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Saturday, the second highest jump in confirmed cases on a single day since the pandemic began.

In its daily update, DHS reports that a total of 7,660 COVID-19 tests have come back positive and 75,570 tests have come back negative.

[Thekaspervote]

2. The death toll for today was 2909. Highest since 4/23. Let's hope it goes back down

[Demovictory9]

3. kick