Florida's reported deaths the past three days: 50, 15, 20...

[blitzen]

You'd think that when you're fudging numbers you would try to be less obvious.

[BComplex]

1. Did you make up these numbers for this tweet?

Where did they come from? Is there a story that goes with this?

[blitzen]

2. No, those are the numbers that have been reported on worldometer, which...

I assume is gathering the data from the state's official report (as they do with NY and Cuomo's daily report).

[BComplex]

3. It would be nice, if you're going to start a thread, to provide a link or

something that tells people what you're talking about.

[blitzen]

4. link to worldometer U.S. states

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[BComplex]

5. Thanks. eom

[onenote]

12. the numbers shown on worldmeter don't look off to me

April 29 -- 47
April 30 -- 50
May 1 -- 46
May 2 -- 50
May 3 -- 15


The low number on Sunday, May 3 probably reflects limited reporting that day, which isn't that uncommon. Many states have numbers that reflect inconsistent reporting practices over the course of a week, or even from one week to the next. The 20 deaths reported today may be a partial number that could increase over the course of the day. In any event, if they were manipulating the results, what would be the point of reporting low numbers for several days and then showing a big increase after that (compare Florida's numbers for April 25-27 to the numbers for April 28-May 2).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

[obamanut2012]

20. The FL state site literally isn't doing this

It gets updated twice a day, and I go over it with a fine-toothed comb both times, and the number of deaths are not rounded up like that, ever. So, blame Worldometer for garbage in, garbage out, because they are reading the FL dashboard wrong.

[backscatter712]

6. Apparently, DeSantis's goons made up those numbers.

[GeorgeGist]

7. DeSatan is cheating!

[TheBlackAdder]

8. I guess they're trying to keep the future counts of Involuntary Manslaughter down to a minimum.

[gristy]

9. The NY Times gives much different numbers for deaths in Florida

Here's their numbers for Covid-19 deaths for the past 7 days (https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data):

4/26 19
4/27 14
4/28 83
4/29 46
4/30 51
5/1 46
5/2 50

And even if the Times and your source were in agreement, I would still say don't spend too much time trying to eye-ball the plausibility of any given small subset of numbers.

[blitzen]

10. Thanks, I'll check that out. I think the numbers are the same, though:

Worldometer had 50 for 5/2, 15 for 5/3, and 20 for 5/4 (today's number is yesterday's count). Florida reports in the morning, and they rarely revise the reported number.

[Igel]

16. The numbers are just what's reported.

Reporting happens at different times--sometimes once per day, sometimes there are updates during the day.

Worldometer has a cut-off at 0:00 UTC, which is 7 pm in Houston, 5 pm in Phoenix. That starts to get fairly early in the day for places on the West Coast, not to mention HI.

It's not updated at 0:00 UTC, because they still have to track down the info, update databases, etc. (And I'm going to guess that it's a bit of a flexible time, 0:05 in some cases and 23:55 in others. Or even more.)

NYT will have a different cutoff time.

[brachism]

11. For anyone interesting in granular data, here are JHU datasets

For all you data nerds, I suggest checking out https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/

COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University

This is the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE). Also, Supported by ESRI Living Atlas Team and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab (JHU APL).

A few useful direct links:

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_recovered_global.csv

[blitzen]

14. Thanks. n/t

[CaptainTruth]

13. If you look at graphs of new cases per day for FL you see a spike after every weekend.

This pattern has been repeating & FL DOH folks say it's due to delays in reporting numbers over the weekend. Looking at the graph, I believe that's true.

I'll insert a link to my last tweet with the graph, note the recurring spikes. It's because the data shows when the cases were REPORTED, not when they OCCURRED.

I believe the data for deaths follows the same pattern.

[link:

Link to tweet

?s=09|]

[obamanut2012]

19. My very liberal FL State Rep confirmed what you posted

When I called her a week or so ago and asked her if that's what the spikes were. She also said there is also often a lag of a few days because counties merge their records, etc. ie someone from The Villages died, but didn't die in Sumter because they don't have a large, good hospital, so they died in Orlando instead. So, maybe they were counted twice, maybe once in Orange County, maybe as a Sumter death, and that may take a day or so to reconcile.

[Danascot]

15. This might have something to do with the reported numbers

https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-officials-stop-publishing-coronavirus-death-toll-data-2020-4

Florida's Department of Health has stopped publishing the state's medical examiners' coronavirus death data after finding that their count was about 10% higher than the state's official tally, the Tampa Bay Times reported on Wednesday.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article242369266.html

The health department is also excluding some snowbirds and other seasonal residents, along with visitors who died in Florida, from its count.

[Igel]

17. Not a whole lot of help.

Unless the NYT is pulling individual counties' info, they're looking at the Florida state site and probably not reading it carefully. (Worldometer didn't).

That's different from the county-level data. The data they're talking about here are things like "victim #12 was a 82-year-old Asian female from Volusia County, primary cause of death was stroke attributed to COVID-19 with comorbidity of bacterial pneumonia".

It only comes into any importance when the local coroner said "COVID" but the state-level folk look and say, "yeah, maybe not", then there's an "under investigation" option that I've seen reported.

There's always suspicion, but that's not data.

[LizBeth]

18. I am trying to find deaths in 2019 comparing deaths in 2020. I found that to be indicative of

how well covid19 is being documented but googling didn't give me the chart I am looking for. Does anyone know where I find that info?