Andy Slavitt: We've been lied to about the potential death toll in this country & it matters

[FreeState]

Must read daily update from Slavitt.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1257477460519763969.html

IHME’s 60,000 declaration was a bomb let off by the White House. It sent a clear message— this virus is overblown hype. We got this. 60,000 is a number Americans can “tolerate.” It sounds vaguely like a bad flu.

(Snip)

60,000 model assumes:
1-states without social distancing don’t have any outbreaks
2-no inter-state/international travel
3-The infection rate R0 goes below 1
4-There is no let up of social distancing
5-No state opens until they have <10 cases
6- It ends by August

(Snip)


Why do I say all these bogus numbers matter? Because releasing a model with these clearly unrealistic & favorable assumptions misled people. And with an infectious disease, one misled person can be enough.

[Igel]

1. The model was clear. It was explicit.

Any claim to the contrary is counterfactual and deserves little respect.

It's not misleading, it's misreading that's the problem.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. The Constant Reporting Of The Floor...

...was also an issue.
When they dropped it from 66,000 to 60,000, the median of the model was 84,000 with a forced ceiling of 108,000.
If we looked the the model, the floor had an upward slope until early August. The media barely had a slope and the ceiling was flat for at least 6 weeks.
So, the model was, in fact, flawed to some marked degree but the consistent public release of only the floor value was deceiving.

[Ford_Prefect]

2. The fact that we have exceeded that prediction makes debate moot.

The lies it is based on and the lying liars who have promoted it as throughly accurate are the problem.

[abqtommy]

6. +100

[ancianita]

3. Nothing BUT misreading models exist as long as nationwide surveillance testing is not done.

If Trump knows this, he's saying nothing. "Just let it wash over the country" he says.

Our problem continues to be the toleration of biased samples that produce 'misleading' models.

[uponit7771]

4. K&R, IHME assumptions beyond asinine and the new one is too assuming we'll have "testing" that's ...

... adequate.

They want us to die.

[Roland99]

7. K&R