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bigtree

(85,919 posts)
Tue May 5, 2020, 07:24 AM May 2020

Michelle Obama: "A lot of our folks didn't vote. It was almost like a slap in the face."

Last edited Tue May 5, 2020, 07:59 AM - Edit history (1)

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1 22m
"A lot of our folks didn't vote. It was almost like a slap in the face."

"Every time Barack didn't get the Congress he needed, that was because our folks didn't show up. After all that work, they couldn't be bothered ... That's my trauma."
https://t.co/wTWr15Xmrc?amp=1





45 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Michelle Obama: "A lot of our folks didn't vote. It was almost like a slap in the face." (Original Post) bigtree May 2020 OP
Black voter turnout fell in 2016, even as a record number of Americans cast ballots Celerity May 2020 #1
Thank you so much for this information. Sloumeau May 2020 #5
yw Celerity May 2020 #8
But she's also talking zentrum May 2020 #11
Imagine how much better off we'd be if Obama had had a good Congress for 8 years. lagomorph777 May 2020 #21
see post #25 Celerity May 2020 #26
Isn't se refering to Dem voters in O's mid-term elections, not 2016 but 2010 and 2014. brush May 2020 #22
I was only showing a continuing trend that culminated with Trump's election in 2016. I fully Celerity May 2020 #25
Such a lost opportunity for the country. zentrum May 2020 #30
Well, our AA contingent basically put their foot down this time and said "BIDEN" The Mouth May 2020 #27
+100000 Celerity May 2020 #29
I think it's not really fair for the country to always rely on black voters- dawg day May 2020 #2
Precisely. tman May 2020 #3
Well, how about we ALL just go out and vote to protect their OWN interest Ferrets are Cool May 2020 #15
I do wonder at the elderly people who voted for Trump last time. dawg day May 2020 #20
Ding, Ding...you hit the nail on the head... Ferrets are Cool May 2020 #33
Remember how surprised the woman at the Amash town hall was tblue37 May 2020 #41
+1 Ferrets are Cool May 2020 #42
Increasing turnout from Dems is easier than flipping Trump voters IronLionZion May 2020 #4
getting 3 or 4 percent of the 100 million who didn't vote last time The Mouth May 2020 #28
It would only be disappointing to me... Buckeye_Democrat May 2020 #6
My good friend who is also a black woman totally agrees with Michelle. lark May 2020 #7
Isn't it about O's mid-terms, 2010, 2014, not 2016, a favorable Congress? brush May 2020 #23
I retired so we no longer work together and she's been slammed at work. lark May 2020 #31
I can imagine ONE way to increase (Democratic) voter turnout... FailureToCommunicate May 2020 #9
Brother Malcolm predicted that if the Democrats nominated a Black man McCamy Taylor May 2020 #10
One think about some in our community that we don't discuss, is homophobia. GusFring May 2020 #12
Why is that? Dem4Life1102 May 2020 #14
I don't know. I just know what some in my family and ppl around me say. I think it has something GusFring May 2020 #17
VRA romana May 2020 #13
White women going for Trump was the biggest shocker. And young ppl don't vote in the midterms. GusFring May 2020 #18
How much of that was actually voter suppression, rather than turnout? GoCubsGo May 2020 #16
we got a republican governor bigtree May 2020 #19
She's right it was lack of turnout, you can't suppress those numbers.. Oregon1947 May 2020 #35
She's right. Many Dems didn't show up Pepsidog May 2020 #24
Message auto-removed Name removed May 2020 #32
kick bigtree May 2020 #34
Who is "our folks"? Steelrolled May 2020 #36
Democrats KayF May 2020 #37
I sort of thought it was Democrats, perhaps loyal Democrats. Steelrolled May 2020 #38
I do wonder how many Blacks voted for Obama simply because they wanted to see a black President. The Mouth May 2020 #40
See, when I think about that? Spider Jerusalem May 2020 #39
she is right Skittles May 2020 #43
The Russians were coming at us from every angle. ecstatic May 2020 #44
Kick and recommend. bronxiteforever May 2020 #45

Celerity

(42,670 posts)
1. Black voter turnout fell in 2016, even as a record number of Americans cast ballots
Tue May 5, 2020, 07:39 AM
May 2020
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/

he black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012. The 7-percentage-point decline from the previous presidential election is the largest on record for blacks. (It’s also the largest percentage-point decline among any racial or ethnic group since white voter turnout dropped from 70.2% in 1992 to 60.7% in 1996.) The number of black voters also declined, falling by about 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, representing a sharp reversal from 2012. With Barack Obama on the ballot that year, the black voter turnout rate surpassed that of whites for the first time. Among whites, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012.



Why black voter turnout fell in 2016

How voting Democratic has become integral to African Americans’ cultural identity.

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/1/15/16891020/black-voter-turnout

“Black Voters Aren’t Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party.” It’s a familiar headline in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election. Indeed, post-election analysis of voter data shows black turnout in presidential elections declined 4.7 percent between 2012 and 2016 (overall turnout showed a small decline from 61.8 percent in 2012 to 61.4 percent in 2016).

How do we explain it — and can it be changed? My ongoing research with Ismail White on political norms among black Americans says we ought to have expected the decline, but that the Democratic Party can do much more to cut it back by recognizing how social dynamics shape African-American politics.

Some have attributed the decline in black turnout to voter suppression tactics made possible by the Shelby v. Holder (2013) decision that rescinded key protections from the Voting Rights Act. But black turnout saw similar declines in states where no new voter laws were implemented after the Shelby decision. Others have simplistically pointed to the absence of the first black president on the ballot — as if that fact offers an explanation. Our work on the social dynamics of politics within the black community provides the missing explanation.

In our recent publication in the American Political Science Review, we argue that the continued social isolation of blacks in American society has created spaces and incentives for the emergence of black political norms. Democratic partisanship has become significantly tied to black identity in the United States. The historical and continued racial segregation of black communities has produced spaces in which in-group members can leverage social sanctions against other group members to ensure compliance with group partisan norms.

snip



Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/10/black-election-turnout-down-2016-census-survey-238226


Census shows pervasive decline in 2016 minority voter turnout

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/


Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html

Turnout among black voters in Wisconsin dropped about 19 percent in the 2016 election from 2012, more than four times the national decline, according to a new study by a liberal group.

The study, released by the Center for American Progress, made the estimates based on data from the U.S. Census, polls and state voter files.

It provides the strongest evidence yet that Wisconsin’s decline in voter turnout, while seen in other demographic groups, was much more dramatic among African-Americans.

The study also found in Wisconsin, as in other key states, the 2016 electorate was significantly more white and non-college- educated than was reported by exit polls immediately after the election.

snip


Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didn’t Vote — and Don’t Regret It

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html

MILWAUKEE — Four barbers and a firefighter were pondering their future under a Trump presidency at the Upper Cutz barbershop last week.

“We got to figure this out,” said Cedric Fleming, one of the barbers. “We got a gangster in the chair now,” he said, referring to President-elect Donald J. Trump.They admitted that they could not complain too much: Only two of them had voted. But there were no regrets. “I don’t feel bad,” Mr. Fleming said, trimming a mustache. “Milwaukee is tired. Both of them were terrible. They never do anything for us anyway.”

Wisconsin, a state that Hillary Clinton had assumed she would win, historically boasts one of the nation’s highest rates of voter participation; this year’s 68.3 percent turnout was the fifth best among the 50 states. But by local standards, it was a disappointment, the lowest turnout in 16 years. And those no-shows were important. Mr. Trump won the state by just 27,000 voters.

Milwaukee’s lowest-income neighborhoods offer one explanation for the turnout figures. Of the city’s 15 council districts, the decline in turnout from 2012 to 2016 in the five poorest was consistently much greater than the drop seen in more prosperous areas — accounting for half of the overall decline in turnout citywide.

The biggest drop was here in District 15, a stretch of fading wooden homes, sandwich shops and fast-food restaurants that is 84 percent black. In this district, voter turnout declined by 19.5 percent from 2012 figures, according to Neil Albrecht, executive director of the City of Milwaukee Election Commission. It is home to some of Milwaukee’s poorest residents and, according to a 2016 documentary, “Milwaukee 53206,” has one of the nation’s highest per-capita incarceration rates.

At Upper Cutz, a bustling barbershop in a green-trimmed wooden house, talk of politics inevitably comes back to one man: Barack Obama. Mr. Obama’s elections infused many here with a feeling of connection to national politics they had never before experienced. But their lives have not gotten appreciably better, and sourness has set in.


snip





and when they did vote there was this...

Mostly black neighborhoods voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/25/mostly-black-neighborhoods-voted-more-republican-in-2016-than-in-2012/

snip




A few things jump out. First: The most heavily white neighborhoods voted much more heavily Republican in 2016 than in 2012 (the dark red line shoots up past the light-red one). Second, the most heavily black neighborhoods voted less heavily Democratic last year than four years ago. (We’ll come back to this, obviously.) Third, Hispanic neighborhoods voted for Republicans less than in 2012.

The net effect of those shifts can be measured by comparing the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 with the Trump-Clinton margin in each neighborhood last year. In heavily white neighborhoods, a big shift to the Republicans. In mostly Hispanic neighborhoods, generally more support for the Democrat, except in the most dense places (although, as the chart on the right makes clear, the sample size for those is very small and therefore more subject to volatility).




snip


This Chart Shows Philadelphia Black Voters Stayed Home, Costing Clinton

A shift in Philadelphia voter turnout, which broke along racial lines, appears to have cost Hillary Clinton almost 35,000 votes.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/johntemplon/this-chart-shows-philadelphia-black-voters-stayed-home-costi



One of the most surprising results of Election Day was Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania — a state that had voted for the Democrat in every election since 1988. As of the Pennsylvania Board of Elections’ latest tally, Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 57,588 votes. More than 60% of that margin comes from a shift in the vote in Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia data offers a particularly clear glimpse at what went wrong for Hillary Clinton: A block of voters who showed up for Barack Obama wasn’t inspired enough by her — or scared enough by Donald Trump — to show up. And as analysts pore over the results of the campaign, the numbers in Philadelphia offer perhaps the most devastating single data point for the Clinton campaign.

snip



massive drop in 85% black Detroit too



Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
5. Thank you so much for this information.
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:16 AM
May 2020

I have been looking for stories where Black voters were interviewed to help explain why the Black vote dropped off like it did. This is a a good starting point for me. Thanks again.

zentrum

(9,865 posts)
11. But she's also talking
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:52 AM
May 2020

....about the years prior to 2016. When they didn't turn out to give Obama the Congress he needed.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
21. Imagine how much better off we'd be if Obama had had a good Congress for 8 years.
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:49 AM
May 2020

Not that he'd have been a lot bolder, but would have made a bit more progress.

brush

(53,475 posts)
22. Isn't se refering to Dem voters in O's mid-term elections, not 2016 but 2010 and 2014.
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:51 AM
May 2020

And what white voters who didn't turn out? Why always the to blame black voters

Celerity

(42,670 posts)
25. I was only showing a continuing trend that culminated with Trump's election in 2016. I fully
Tue May 5, 2020, 10:11 AM
May 2020

accept the trend was not a new one.

zentrum

(9,865 posts)
30. Such a lost opportunity for the country.
Tue May 5, 2020, 11:33 AM
May 2020

I haven't seen the documentary but I wonder if she addresses why this happened.

Is there anything on our side that we could have done differently?

The Obama's had to walk such a narrow, unforgiving line from the moment he was in the oval office.

The Mouth

(3,123 posts)
27. Well, our AA contingent basically put their foot down this time and said "BIDEN"
Tue May 5, 2020, 10:18 AM
May 2020

So hopefully they will turn out. Joe was far from my first choice, but the conventional wisdom is that African Americans are our core constituency of the Democratic Party and *must* be listened to, so let's hope so!

dawg day

(7,947 posts)
2. I think it's not really fair for the country to always rely on black voters-
Tue May 5, 2020, 07:56 AM
May 2020

to counteract the idiocy and greed of so many white voters.

dawg day

(7,947 posts)
20. I do wonder at the elderly people who voted for Trump last time.
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:46 AM
May 2020

(I'm close to Medicare age, but wouldn't vote GOP if I lived to be 100, of course.) Do they even notice that he is callously dismissing their lives and health as unimportant?

Then again, if it's not on Fox News, most Trump voters will never hear about it.

Ferrets are Cool

(21,063 posts)
33. Ding, Ding...you hit the nail on the head...
Tue May 5, 2020, 12:02 PM
May 2020

they are so brainwashed by that comedy channel that they don't know or care to know the truth.

tblue37

(64,982 posts)
41. Remember how surprised the woman at the Amash town hall was
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:59 PM
May 2020

when she learned that the Mueller report didn't completely exonerate Trump at all, but rather strongly suggested his guilt.

She said she only listened to and read right wing sources like FOX,Breitbart, etc., and had never heard any of the negative stuff about Trump that Amash explained during his town hall.

IronLionZion

(45,261 posts)
4. Increasing turnout from Dems is easier than flipping Trump voters
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:13 AM
May 2020

Yes, I know there are some Obama voters who flipped to Trump and might flip back to Biden. But in business it's generally easier to retain customers than to find new ones. Good brands inspire long term loyalty. Anyone who would flip to our side already has after seeing what Trump has done.

For reference, Obama probably didn't flip a lot of Bush voters but inspired a lot more turnout from Dems to win his elections.

The Mouth

(3,123 posts)
28. getting 3 or 4 percent of the 100 million who didn't vote last time
Tue May 5, 2020, 10:20 AM
May 2020

would be the logical easy win, IMHO. We can bloviate forever about Hillary getting getting 3 million more in the popular vote, but 33 times that didn't even vote at all.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,848 posts)
6. It would only be disappointing to me...
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:21 AM
May 2020

... if African American voters picked Clinton in the primaries, then didn’t show up in the general election.

That would be like the white evangelicals picking Trump in the GOP primaries, then not voting in the general. (Which would’ve been great in that case.)

It’s a touchy subject to talk about “groups” of any kind, though. No group is completely homogenous, obviously. (Not all Ohioans are uneducated hicks either, but I saw those kinds of comments in 2016 and just let them slide.)

lark

(23,003 posts)
7. My good friend who is also a black woman totally agrees with Michelle.
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:24 AM
May 2020

She was PISSED the day after the election at so many black women not voting when they came out for Obama. Funny, we argued about it, me telling her that most black women did support Hillary and it's old white women's fault if you are going to blame women. She wasn't having it and still feels like Michelle to this day. I love her passion, even if I don't agree with her blame. I definitely support her mission to get out everyone, every single person, to save the country in Nov.

lark

(23,003 posts)
31. I retired so we no longer work together and she's been slammed at work.
Tue May 5, 2020, 11:48 AM
May 2020

Working with frontline patient facing people, and trying to coordinate 2 departments working from home is a hair pulling job. That woild be me if I hadn't retired.

FailureToCommunicate

(13,989 posts)
9. I can imagine ONE way to increase (Democratic) voter turnout...
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:29 AM
May 2020

Joe Biden picks Michelle for Vice President!

I KNOW Michelle has said no...

I know she has "done her time" in the public sphere...

I know it would be getting the old "band back together" (Michelle is married to the best President in recent memory)

BUT, Michelle IS the most popular person in America by various polls...

She would only have to say yes...for the good of the nation...

and the rest would be history.

McCamy Taylor

(19,240 posts)
10. Brother Malcolm predicted that if the Democrats nominated a Black man
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:33 AM
May 2020

for president, the huge turn out in Black voters would give the Democrats a win. This was back in the 1960s. I love Brother Malcolm.

 

GusFring

(756 posts)
12. One think about some in our community that we don't discuss, is homophobia.
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:01 AM
May 2020

A lot of them are pissed that Barack Obama put gay rights high on his agenda. And some saw it as a slap in the face that he did that, but never came up with an agenda specifically for the black community. As a black person who adores the Obamas and isnt homophobic, I think he's the best potus of my lifetime. Its a shame he didn't market his accomplishments like that idiot Trump.

 

Dem4Life1102

(3,974 posts)
14. Why is that?
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:17 AM
May 2020

I've never understood that. I did have a friend try to explain it to me once but really didn't understand his reasons.

 

GusFring

(756 posts)
17. I don't know. I just know what some in my family and ppl around me say. I think it has something
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:27 AM
May 2020

To do with the church though. I'm not religious and didn't grow up in the church, so homophobia just isn't a thing with me.

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtyson82/status/1257378497036763138

Obama and Flint is mentioned a lot. I did think he handled that poorly.

romana

(765 posts)
13. VRA
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:10 AM
May 2020

I'd like to see some real analysis about how the vote was suppressed for certain demographics after SCOTUS gutted the VRA in 2013. I think that has to be a pretty significant factor.

I don't like playing the blame game directed at any one group. There were really significant and insidious systemic forces working against Obama and Clinton. But I respect what Michelle Obama has to say about this.

 

GusFring

(756 posts)
18. White women going for Trump was the biggest shocker. And young ppl don't vote in the midterms.
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:28 AM
May 2020

Young ppl of all races.

GoCubsGo

(32,061 posts)
16. How much of that was actually voter suppression, rather than turnout?
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:24 AM
May 2020

I strongly suspect that was large part of the problem in Wisconsin and Florida. Most likely Michigan, as well.

bigtree

(85,919 posts)
19. we got a republican governor
Tue May 5, 2020, 09:33 AM
May 2020

...over a black vet who was Lt. Governor.

This is in Md., where turnout among Dems was dismal. I don't think voting restrictions can take the blame for that loss.

Response to bigtree (Original post)

KayF

(1,345 posts)
37. Democrats
Tue May 5, 2020, 01:46 PM
May 2020

people are seeing this as being about black people, but I think they adding a racial element that isn't there.

 

Steelrolled

(2,022 posts)
38. I sort of thought it was Democrats, perhaps loyal Democrats.
Tue May 5, 2020, 05:43 PM
May 2020

But it sounds odd to me, almost like an obligation. I don't feel like I'm anyone's "folks".

The Mouth

(3,123 posts)
40. I do wonder how many Blacks voted for Obama simply because they wanted to see a black President.
Tue May 5, 2020, 08:45 PM
May 2020

In other words, how many would not have voted for a white male candidate with the same record, policies, and exceedingly high level of articulation and charisma? The OP comes kind of close to slightly giving insight into that. OF course, the other interesting question is how many people voted against Obama specifically because he was black? I don't know if it's quite that direct a correlation, as he was highly progressive and presumably, we progressives are not going to let racism infect our political views as much.

I laughingly recall tales of my father being *HIGHLY* conflicted in 1960; he was *EXTREMELY* right-wing, Joe McCarthy level of hard-right, BUT the fact that an Irishman was running for President made him proud, as he was really prideful of that heritage. He utterly loathed anything to do with Democrats, but boy oh boy did he want to see an Irish Catholic President. I find it pretty funny in retrospect; I wonder if he voted Kennedy even though he hated him .

I mention the above because it helps me understand, perhaps a little bit, both the aspirations of African Americans and the aspirations of women, something I can't naturally relate to being a white male.

 

Spider Jerusalem

(21,786 posts)
39. See, when I think about that?
Tue May 5, 2020, 05:49 PM
May 2020

I just think about what a missed opportunity it was that the infrastructure of the 2008 Obama for America campaign wasn't leveraged to GOTV for the mid-terms.

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