Kevin Hassett steps in it and gets slammed by the experts. - fun with polynomials!

[yellowcanine]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/white-house-economic-adviser-struggles-to-explain-his-pandemic-model-that-shows-zero-deaths-by-may-15/

White House economic Kevin Hassett on Tuesday struggled to explain a controversial chart that shows coronavirus deaths dropping nearly to zero by May 15.

Hassett’s so-called “cubic model” was panned by experts on Monday.

Nate Silver
I would bet $538 that the White House's "cubic model" is literally just an MS-EXCEL trendline with a third-degree (cubic) polynomial.

Roger Pielke Jr.
Hassett on @cnn right now trying to explain that “cubic fits” are part of standard methods for forecast evaluation, and people who don’t know statistics might be confused. As someone who has studied forecast evaluation for ~yrs - No.

Sam Wang

Curve fitting (what Hassett did) is *not* building a model. All he's doing is getting a curve to go through some data points. That doesn't predict the future in any dynamic process. It doesn't work in the stock market, and definitely not for a pandemic.

Yeah well from my statistics classes I seem to remember the peril of making predictions beyond the last data point.

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Buckle up, GOP is purposely killing us and now the new strain, though not new per se

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original


is gonna weak havoc on us, especially since half the country insists on acting like 9 yr olds.

[leftieNanner]

2. Don't worry

Trump will fire him and find someone dumber.

There. Fixed it.

[hlthe2b]

3. I was listening on tunein when he said this, just back from a five mile walk with my pup

and the guys digging trenches to lay fiber-optic must have thought I was in need of a straight jacket, seeing my response hearing his inanity.

Fortunately by the time I got home and checked, it appears all who know better were thoroughly destroying him on twitter. OMG. But you just KNOW Kushner and all Trump's imbecile incompetents are using this.

[gratuitous]

4. Aw geez, people

It's not like Kevin will get fired or even be called to account for his hideously, gut-wrenchingly wrong "prediction." It's not like he's giving you a sunny weather forecast when you want to go to the park and it rains. You know, something serious like that.

Besides, sooner or later, his prediction will be right eventually and we won't have any more Covid 19 deaths. In the meantime, the administration would like you to bet your life that they're right.

[Wellstone ruled]

5. Cubic Model?

Holy Hanna,some body sure skipped school a bunch. Round pegs in square holes?