What Are The Prospects Of The Economy Growing Again By November's Election?......

[global1]

What will Trump be looking for about the economy to say that it's growing again? What does he expect to happen with respect to the economy that he thinks will get him re-elected? Are the American People that stupid to take his word for it that the economy has recovered and it was because of him?

Will it be a recovery from the growing unemployment numbers? How much will the unemployment numbers have to go down for it to indicate a growing economy?

Will it be a stock market recovery to pre-Covid numbers? Is that even possible with the fact that because of the high unemployment that the American People won't have the money to spend to kick start the economy? What about the potential for monumental bankruptcy's?

Do you think we'll be in a position by November to see people traveling again? Flying? Vacationing? Major meetings and conventions coming back to the major convention cities? Hotels thriving? Las Vegas re-opening?

I know I have a convention scheduled in Las Vegas for the last week of September. I don't think I'm going to that meeting - even if Las Vegas is re-opened. I'm deathly afraid of contracting the virus and I'm in a high risk group as a Senior citizen. I have to believe that a lot of American's feel the same way I do and will be still staying close to home. This will be especially true if because of the premature re-openings going on now cause a second spike in the cases and deaths.

I believe if we see a second spike - the Guv's are going to have to close down the States again and invoke the stay-at-home orders. That could probably hit around the Fall of this year.

I'm curious to hear what others here have to say about how Trump is going to spin this in order to be re-elected.

[elleng]

1. Nil, imo, but he's already attempting to 'pull out all the stops' so it APPEARS to be happening.

[eleny]

15. Problem for him is when a chicken can't "appear" in every pot

He may have followers who will happily starve or die for him. Well, okay. Thoughts and prayers, then. But there have to be followers who look at their kids with no hope for xmas and know in their hearts why it's really happening that their stocking will be bare.

[elleng]

18. No 'thoughts and prayers' from me (becoming hardened,)

but you're right, there have to be those with no hope; sad for their kids.

[still_one]

2. Some people do not understand that the stock market isn't the economy and

the economy isn't the stock market

With the unemployment rate at depression levels, you are not going to see a recovery until that gets significantly lower, and that isn't going to happen by November

[BigmanPigman]

3. In a word...YES in answer to "Are people stupid enough...?"

"Are the American People that stupid to take his word for it that...?". They have shown they are more than that stupid, repeatedly, over the past 3+ years. Nothing has changed. Only when they themselves drop dead will it hit home and even when that happens most of their GOP friends and family will still vote GOP because THEY NEVER LEARN. You have to be stupid to keep voting against your own best interests.

[qazplm135]

4. very low

but any hint of better will be seized on by his followers.

[A HERETIC I AM]

5. "The economy turns like a large ship with a small rudder"

I put that statement in quote marks, because it was told to me by someone who had studied economics much deeper that I had.

He said large economies were like the Titanic, in that they were large behemoths, capable of high speed, but not able to react to adverse conditions very quickly. However, when something dramatic happens, they can change relatively quickly.

This economy was/is the Titanic. Steaming along as if all is just hunky dory, serving up caviar to the rich and providing dancing to the not so rich. All the while the passengers not knowing or caring that a mere inches away, beyond the apparent safety of the iron plates, lie doom. And all it took to let doom in, was a small cut, a cut created by an enemy seen too late.


Sorry. Didn't mean to wax poetic, but there you go.

[Newest Reality]

6. Zero.

There is, to me, zero chance of that.

At some point, even though we have been divorced, Wall St. is going to react to all the factors involved here and that's when we get to see the financial sector get a fever, chills, and other symptoms. This is a long, slow series of cascading system failures and the heroine that was injected into the stock market will wear off. They are just really high for now. Their welfare money was enough to get them real stoned for now.

When we get to the election, the lag will shorten sufficiently to the point that the economy will be in far worse shape. However, I think that as always on the table and this crisis is just exemplifying the underlying weaknesses of Neo-Liberal policies, just-in-time delivery and other faults in today's capitalism. This looks like the end of the growth model, (for many, many reasons) and there will have to be radical changes forthcoming. Either capitalism will now take us all down while a few float at the top, or we make the necessary changes and adapt to what all the signs are telling us, loudly and with sirens and klaxons.

We could have a better economy, so it's not all gloom and doom. The planet won't survive the notion of endless resources + endless garbage dump = endless growth anymore anyway. Now that the mask is off about how Neo-Liberal capitalism is rigged and vulnerable, (see: Trump's crony/despotic/nepotism) how do we go back and do that voluntarily? What is it that we would be returning to when it is already obsolete and proving to be detrimental and deadly to most of the population?

[MerryBlooms]

7. Zero.

The businesses being forced to open at the capacity required to meet social distancing requirements, won't pay the lease, let alone power, suppliers, taxes, payroll, etc... A huge number of these businesses will be filing for bankruptcy. They would have been better off staying closed, and their employees on unemployment. What about the buffet businesses? How the heck are they supposed to exist under new guidelines, and even then, who the hell with two brain cells to rub together, would go to a chuck wagon? Nope, our economy is shit until there is a reliable vaccine and a sane president.

[uponit7771]

16. +1, they'll lose more money open and operating at 35% of previous years revenue than closing and ...

... filing bankruptcy and picking up the pieces later when all this is done and over.

That's what J-Crew is doing

The stupid asses in the business world have been paying a bit attention to how sick in the head Trump is and believed him when he said this will be short.

[napi21]

8. We all know the economy will not recover for at leat a year and most likely longer than that.

But DT is so used to getting his way, he thinks he can make it happen, just for him! I believe there will be some of his cult followers will believe him when he say things are moving in the right direction & HE'LL make it great by Christmas, and still vote for him. I don't think he'll manage to keep all of the follks who voted for him in 16, and if he doesn't, he's toast!

[John Fante]

9. Zero chance.

Trump isn't going to win re-election.

[pbmus]

10. Zero, zilch, none, nada, no way Jose....

Mild inflation for 1-3 months, headed for major deflation iceberg causing extreme pain in lowest economic sectors...thousands if not hundreds of thousands of small businesses [1-50] employees going belly up....which is 45% of America’s economy...short run...long run...5-7 years we hopefully have another democratic president who will be continuing the green new deal program that Biden/and a smart female will have started...and Americans can see light at the end of a very long economic tunnel..

[poli-junkie]

11. Not when people will be dropping like flies

[uponit7771]

12. 3rd Q GDP could be positive by .5% for instance econ estimates (CNBC Moody's) is 2 / 5 / 7 ish

... and that's really stupid.

Red Don's gamble is the death yo yo will stop by end of 3rd q start of 1st q or at least stop going up and down so much

and

for the UE rate to be in the high single digits.

Problem are

The Treasury and Fed reserve went around with a hammer looking for nails to hit and they did ... in the form of large corporations by the trillions small business's got scraps. Fed Res wont capitalize small business's enough before they start failing by the 10s of thousands of bankruptcies because they have hammers in the hands they only know one thing.

20 - 30% unemployment wont just snap back positive growth in an economy in a quarter and that's if everything is perfect by the end of 2nd quarter we both know it wont be. Right now China is having to pay people to go out and shop, google China Voucher, and that's were we'll be at.

Democrats will make sure 1200$ keeps going to people along with UI, that doesn't entice folk to run out and find a job right now cause dying a long, horrible, painful death alone isn't on too many peoples bucket list.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

13. It Doesn't Need To Recover

All he needs is something to point to so he can say, "See? What I'm doing is WORKING!!! The virus wasn't my fault, but I'm fixing it anyway!" And all his loyal trained seals will slap their flippers together and bark on cue.

In fact, I'm worried that he doesn't even need THAT. I'm worried that ALL he needs to say is, "That virus thing wasn't my fault," and everyone will just absolve him of any blame for the wretched economy.

What WE need to do is remind people at every turn that the economy had been slowing down every year of his term, and that every economist in the country was predicting a recession (and make sure you call it the Trump Recession every time too) by Summer 2020 anyway. And that was BEFORE the virus.

He's got all his little minions polluting social media with his "Everything is GREAT!" bullshit. We need to be just as diligent getting the TRUTH out there. We can't lose the messaging war again. The media won't report this stuff, so we have to.

[SoonerPride]

14. Less than zero or equal to trumps IQ

We are fucked

[JCMach1]

17. No growth until 3rd.or 4th quarter 2021

Unless we get an out of the blue prophylaxis

[roamer65]

19. It will be a tepid recovery until a vaccine is administered.

[judeling]

20. Pretty good, month on month.

September will look better then August. Year on Year it will look terrible.

There will be tricks that will be pulled. The census will be extended so those temp jobs wont start ramping down. The Treasury will release hoarded funds. However the actual impression will be set already which is why the push to reopen is so desperate.

The Stock Market may even be in a Biden bounce by that time.

[smirkymonkey]

21. Very slim. They underestimate the will to live among the majority of the population.

The cult members might go out and spend, but if businesses aren't taking in enough money and can't afford to operate they will close again and lay people off.

Most of us are going to take a "wait and see" approach, which means even if businesses open, we aren't going out there until we see what happens to other people who are so eager to risk their health to "get back to normal".

If we get a second, more virulent strain, it will be even worse. There is NO chance things will be looking good for him before election day.

[Xolodno]

22. Just because its recovering, doesn't mean...

...it has recovered.

Yes, things may be open. Yes, some people will be finding employment.

But it doesn't happen over night. The bloodshed will occur once things start to open in significant numbers. Bankruptcies, lay offs, etc. will hit hard at first. Most will still be unemployed.

But little by little, growth will occur, people will get hired. Some corporations that weather this well, will try to poach off of other companies, forcing the target company to hire the less experienced, etc. I suspect, many professionals in the furloughed companies, such has travel and entertainment, will be looking to jump ship to banks, insurance companies, etc. As they did not shut down during the virus. And they will have to hire less experienced. Companies like Disney, had the pick of the lot as most considered working for financial institutions was dull and boring and not "sexy". I suspect, many will change that view for something more solid.

But to throw a monkey wrench into the machine, until there is a vaccine, this will be very slow going. Yes restaurants will open, but not with cramming everyone they can into the place. Likewise, theme parks will open, but with limited allowed attendance. Yes, cruises will return and yes, people will book them. But they will not be booked to capacity as people will be wary and the company itself will be wary and may book every other cabin. Cruise lines took a big popularity hit with the floating city's of death.

Again, the speed of the recovery depends on the speed of the vaccine.

[Hoyt]

23. Not much. trump will claim he's the only one that can get us

back to where we were, as if that is what we should aspire to.

He’ll claim the pandemic was not his doing and his admin prevented total catastrophe. Some folks will buy that. Question is how many, especially among those who actually vote?

[meadowlander]

24. None. Open all the businesses you want, people aren't going to them until they feel safe.

We're headed for Depression-level unemployment.

Anyone with a lick of sense is saving every penny they have unless they have iron-clad job security.

We'll be lucky if we've bottomed out by November.