Biden's edge evaporates

[struggle4progress]

POLITICS
MAY 5, 2020 / 8:03 PM
UPDATED 8 HOURS AGO
Chris Kahn

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Joe Biden’s advantage over President Donald Trump in popular support has eroded in recent weeks as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee struggles for visibility with voters during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

The opinion poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday found that 43% of registered voters said they would support Biden in the Nov. 3 presidential election, while 41% said they would back Trump. That makes the contest essentially a toss-up, as the results are within the poll’s credibility interval.

Biden led by 6 percentage points in a similar poll last week and by 8 points in a poll that ran April 15 to 21.

The former vice president has been forced to run his presidential campaign from his Delaware home in keeping with restrictions aimed at combating the virus, which has killed more than 70,000 people in the United States and put 30 million people out of work ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/bidens-edge-evaporates-as-trump-seen-as-better-suited-for-economy-coronavirus-response-poll-shows-idUSKBN22I005

[struggle4progress]

1. Poll: Trump's coronavirus treatment advice more harmful than helpful

By CAITLIN OPRYSKO
05/05/2020 01:59 PM EDT

President Donald Trump's advice on treating the coronavirus is more harmful than helpful a plurality of respondents said according to a poll released Tuesday in the wake of the president's suggestion that Americans ingest or inject themselves with disinfectants.

The poll, conducted by Monmouth University, found that 42 percent of those polled said the president's rhetoric on coronavirus treatments, which also has included promoting medications that have not been approved as treatments for Covid-19, has been harmful. A third said the president's treatment advice has been helpful, while 23 percent said his public remarks on treatment are neither particularly harmful nor helpful.

The poll, which was conducted last week after Trump significantly scaled back his daily coronavirus task force briefings, found a predictable partisan divide on the subject of Trump’s medical advice. More than two thirds of Republicans, 68 percent, said they consider Trump’s advice helpful. But most Democrats, 72 percent, said they viewed the president's remarks as harmful.

There was slightly more agreement over whether Trump has been consistent in the task force briefings from day to day, with most Americans — 55 percent — calling his remarks inconsistent, compared with 36 percent who said Trump has been largely consistent in the briefings. The partisan divide on this issue remained, the poll found, with majorities of Democrats and independents calling Trump inconsistent, and only 18 percent of Republicans agreed with that assessment ...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/05/poll-trump-coronavirus-treatment-advice-harmful-237400

[struggle4progress]

2. Wait, Donald Trump's approval is up again?

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Updated 8:34 PM ET, Tue May 5, 2020

The narrative seemed set: After a brief surge of public support for President Donald Trump in the early days of America's fight against the coronavirus, his approval numbers had settled back into the low 40s ...

Except that in Gallup's latest two-week tracking poll, Trump's job approval is back to 49% -- matching the highest it's ever been -- while his disapproval is at 47% ...

It's worth mentioning here that it's entirely possible that this most recent Gallup poll is simply an outlier amid the broader public opinion on Trump. In fact, of the last 10 polls that asked a presidential approval question, only Gallup shows Trump's approval higher than his disapproval. Overall, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump's disapproval 6 points higher than his approval.

A Monmouth poll released Tuesday showed Trump's overall job rating had slipped over the past few months, with 43% approving and 51% disapproving ...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/politics/donald-trump-approval-rating-coronavirus/index.html

[Demsrule86]

39. it is bullshit...no way with this situation Trump's polls are up.

[totodeinhere]

51. You might be underestimating the stupidity of a lot of voters. n/t

[Demsrule86]

69. No I don't. This is a bullshit internet poll...completely worthless.

How are you...haven't seen you around much since Sen. Sander conceded...good to see you.

[totodeinhere]

70. I'm usually in the General Discussion forum.

But I'm fine. Thanks.

[Demsrule86]

71. I am in General too...wish we had an election forum but maybe it is good not to...get kind of

obsessed...love love elections.

[NanceGreggs]

3. I call bullshit.

I am not the first - and I most certainly won't be the last.

[struggle4progress]

10. I agree with you. But in political struggles, it is important to examine

the whole context -- and (in particular) to try to understand how different sectors of the population might be thinking about this

It is important to understand that certain portion will hold to Vox populi, vox dei --- so that polling results can become another propaganda tool

[NanceGreggs]

11. I especially call bullshit ...

... on an OP that its originator keeps responding to.

[struggle4progress]

12. Read the other posts: most of my other posts in the thread give much more info

than the OP; and I think they they make the point you're hoping to make, but with supporting data or further argument

[Demsrule86]

40. Maybe we shouldn't post bullshit polls and drive down enthusiasm.

[struggle4progress]

52. I want to distinguish between "enthusiasm" and "motivation"

When making phone-calls or knocking doors, it's important to be enthusiastic about the candidate we're supporting, but it's also important to be factual (using sound-bites) because that's where we win or lose credibility

We can't just dump on Trump, much as he richly deserves that, because the low-information moveable middle is likely to hear that as mere negativity on our part: we'll need to convince people our candidate can really move the country forward, especially if we also elect a Congress that supports him

We really can win this, but it's not a sure thing unless we do the hard work. People need to be motivated to do that work, and they need to be motivated to try to do it well. Pretending we have a lock on this is likely to lure people into complacency and demotivate them from doing the work that needs to be done

Making phone-calls or knocking doors, we'll hear a lot of different things, not all of it to our liking. A thick skin is sometimes required, to hear all the trash-talk one hears from some people. In 2010, I tried to talk to a potential voter but was blocked by her daughter, who told me they "didn't like either candidate" -- when there were dozens of names on the ballot for various races. In 2016, I met people who told me they were voting for Sanders in the primary but planned to vote for Trump if Sanders wasn't our candidate

It helps to able to respond pleasantly to the nonsense and to be able to determine rather quickly whether there's any reason to continue the conversation or whether one should graciously move along to a fresh contact. It also helps to have some accurate one-liners that might sway a person you're trying to move: we'll usually have two minutes or less before they want us away from the doorstep or off the phone. And those one-liners may take some tiring experience to develop, because not everybody thinks the same way

Upthread I did post several polls that suggested different conclusions than the OP: some point to interesting ideas about how to proceed

[LeftInTX]

58. Well said

[Demsrule86]

68. How long has it been since you phone banked or knocked on doors...people

don't like to answer first of all...for every one call you have answered, you make 10 or so where no one answer.s And if they don't want to talk to you they hang up. You don't call Republicans but Democrats...you are getting out your own vote so you rarely hear anything unpleasant. Just a click if they don't want to talk to you. Or sometimes a complaint that multiple people keep calling them. As for door knocking...can't do it now...not allowed. And when we will be able to, you mostly leave literature...not that many answer their doors... only unpleasant people are those who are misidentified as Democrats...because again you call on Democrats not Republicans. I will be working in DATA this time but everyone phone banks when time permits.

[struggle4progress]

72. I typically do this in every election. Yes, some people will hang up on you

or order you off their doorstep. As I said, a thick skin is required, and so is motivation

[Demsrule86]

75. I have never been ordered off anyone door stop...other than some who were GOP who had either moved

their or change their party...but this year...don't know if it will happen.

[struggle4progress]

76. I've been ordered off doorsteps by people who I suspect simply didn't want to think about politics

or who never had a political doorknock so thought I was running a con or were busy with something else they thought more important or (sometimes) who just want to be unpleasant to someone. There are all kinds of reasons people won't talk to you

[struggle4progress]

4. "The one thing that the pandemic has taught us is that I was right"

By Sean Collins
May 5, 2020, 1:10pm EDT

... A Washington Post/University of Maryland April 28 to May 3 poll released Tuesday found that 63 percent of Americans are worried about contracting Covid-19 — and that 38 percent believe “the worst is yet to come” with respect to the pandemic (30 percent said we’re currently living through the worst period).

The same poll, which surveyed 1,005 US adults by telephone and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, found that most Americans are uncomfortable with nonessential businesses reopening — for instance, 78 percent and 67 percent said they’d be uncomfortable going to a restaurant and a clothing store, respectively, should they be open. And 44 percent said they currently feel “uncomfortable” going to the grocery store.

Other recent polls found similar levels of anxiety about the pandemic; an Axios-Ispos poll released Tuesday found most Americans expressing concern Covid-19 deaths are worse than has been reported, while an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last week found half of all Americans have lost work or wages due to the coronavirus ...

Experts, meanwhile, are pessimistic. Internal CDC documents first reported on by the New York Times Monday show projections of a steep increase in daily deaths beginning May 14, and that 3,000 Americans will be dying per day by June 1. Daily new cases could reach 200,000 by that same date, the documents claim. Justin Lessler, the creator of the model and an associate professor at Johns Hopkins told the Washington Post the data was a preliminary analysis not yet ready for public release. But Lessler also said he believes 100,000 new cases per day by June 1 is possible, and that “There are reopening scenarios where it could get out of control very quickly” ...

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/5/21247823/trump-coronavirus-claims-was-right-americans-worried-polls

[struggle4progress]

5. Approval rating for Trump's coronavirus response drops again, poll shows

Tim O'Donnell
The Week•May 5, 2020

... Since Monmouth began asking the question in March, Trump's approval rating specifically for how he's handled the pandemic has dropped from 50 percent to 46 percent in April to 42 percent in May. And, for the first time, more than half of those surveyed believe he's doing a "bad job" ...

Congress' numbers also dipped 3 percentage points, while the media and governors mostly held steady when it comes to how they've handled the situation. The poll's big winner, though, is the American public. In the previous two polls, only 38 percent of those surveyed approved of how their fellow Americans had responded to the pandemic, but that rating has jumped to 51 percent.

The Monmouth University poll was conducted over the phone between April 30 and May 4 and included a random sample of 808 adults living in the United States. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points ...

https://news.yahoo.com/approval-rating-trumps-coronavirus-response-175500969.html

[uponit7771]

6. Why are we still posting meaningless national polls on DU? The Swing state polls mean everything and

... is what wins elections.

I'm ... come on people.

[struggle4progress]

14. Swing state polls can be useful to those of us who live in swing states, but some national polls

can contain useful information that is more generally applicable

I agree that national approval/disapproval polls are worthless -- but the fact that over 60% of Americans are concerned about covid-19 and that a majority now describe COVFEFE-45 as erratic point to possible approaches that we should carefully consider

[Chainfire]

33. Polls have their place in a political discussion,

even national polls.

I understand your argument, but the national polls are still important. Personally I find it fascinating that support for Trump, is nearly equal to those of us who are appalled by Trump; very, very disturbing, but fascinating. The polls tell us that there is something very broken with either the polls or the population. I think the legitimate polls are generally an accurate reflection of the mood of the nation. What is horrifying to me is that Trump's approval numbers aren't in the teens or the twenties. In a perfect world Donald Trump would receive a single vote in the next election. (if he votes)

We must recognize that Trump is not the disease that is destroying our nation, dragging us closer and closer to an unapologetic form of Fascism. Trump is a symptom of the disease, and that is why his approval ratings are still at a competitive level. We have to face the fact that we are not some overwhelming force that will crush Trump in a landslide of either the popular vote, or the Electoral College. It is going to be a close run thing with our future in the balance.

It is interesting that we (at least I) moaned and groaned, ground our teeth and pulled our hair over the obsolete Electoral College system in the last presidential election and we are now are depending on the same system to save the country in a time where the actual vote count may end up being close.

[Demsrule86]

41. Good question...

[struggle4progress]

7. Majority say response is erratic

BY JAMES WALKER ON 5/5/20 AT 10:11 AM EDT

... A survey published by Navigator on Tuesday found that 57 percent of registered voters think the president is "erratic" in his response to the outbreak of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new strain of coronavirus.

But 38 percent said the word did not apply to Trump's handling of the pandemic and a further 5 percent told pollsters they were unsure.

Navigator surveyed 1,014 registered voters across the country between April 29 and May 4. Its margin of error is 3.1 percentage points ...

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-coronavirus-erratic-poll-1502018

[struggle4progress]

8. He may not be able to save himself

Jennifer Rubin
Opinion writer
May 5, 2020 at 3:26 p.m. EDT

... The voters are at odds with Trump on the most fundamental question, namely whether to prioritize health or the economy. Among voters, 63 percent are concerned about opening up business too soon (consistent with other recent polls) and 54 percent think the federal government is not doing enough.

To the extent the election becomes a referendum on Trump’s handling of the pandemic, he will find it hard slogging, even in red states. Some stunning polls suggest the race is competitive in places where Trump should be winning easily. In Montana, a University of Montana poll finds: “Trump leading Biden by just 5 points, 45% to 40%, despite winning there by 20 points in 2016. A [Democratic] presidential candidate last won Montana in 1992, when Bill Clinton narrowly edged out George H.W. Bush by 2.5% as part of a landslide electoral college victory.” In Texas, the last two polls show Trump and Biden in a statistical dead heat. (Trump won by nine points in 2016.) And in North Carolina, which Trump won by almost four points, one poll shows Biden leading by seven points, and others show a dead heat ...

... if the draft government memo obtained by The Post forecasting 200,000 new coronavirus cases per day by June 1 is accurate, Trump’s numbers certainly will not improve. (Numbers like that would not only increase deaths but also slow or halt his quick reopening strategy.)

... as the coronavirus invades rural America and red states, the definition of a “safe” seat may change. The New York Times reports: “Rural towns that one month ago were unscathed are suddenly hot spots for the virus. It is rampaging through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons, killing the medically vulnerable and the poor, and new outbreaks keep emerging in grocery stores, Walmarts or factories, an ominous harbinger of what a full reopening of the economy will bring.” And it’s not just big cities in red states. “Smaller towns and rural counties in the Midwest and South have suddenly been hit hard, underscoring the capriciousness of the pandemic” ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/05/trumps-damage-is-already-done-he-may-not-be-able-save-himself/

[NanceGreggs]

13. You have now "replied" to your own OP ...

... eight times in less than fifteen minutes.

[struggle4progress]

15. Yes: I posted, in addition to a national poll that we both think is probably worthless,

several articles that suggest the exact opposite is true and that suggest other useful approaches

[Cha]

9. I call Bullshit, too.

[struggle4progress]

17. I'm inclined to agree with you that the poll is incorrect. Most of my other posts

in this thread provide a rather different picture IMO. But we need to understand how complicated the informational environment is for many people. I think we can win in November, and I think we can win in a landslide -- but we could also easily snatch defeat frtom the jaws of victory. We don't have to reach everybody, and we should not waste time with the dead-enders -- but we do need to start thinking about how we might reach the reachable and how we might undertake that task under circumstances that could become very difficult

[Cha]

18. Thanks! Run like we're

20 points behind. Pretty sure Team Biden Understands that.

[struggle4progress]

21. I'm sure they do understand that. But media has a strong corporate tendency, and

we can't count on them to push an accurate message: IMO progress requires grassroots action and an ability to talk to nice people who usually don't pay much attention to this stuff. And people at the top of politics frequently underestimate the importance of grassroots organizing. So I don't want to count only on how well Team Biden understands the importance of fighting back hard

[Cha]

22. Don't I know.. the US media is the Enemy of

the State in my opinion. I stopped watching and reading in November 2002.

I know from DU that they've only gotten exponentially worse.

They helped bring us Iraq War and trump, and bush.. we got lucky with Pres Obama

[struggle4progress]

23. We didn't get lucky: we organized and won. We can organize and win again.

But we might have to do so under very difficult circumstances

[Cha]

25. Yeah, Obama is a brilliant organizer who outsmarted

all his enemies.

Now we Russia in the mix as well and all his little helpers.

[MFM008]

16. A few days ago this

Asshat moron told the country to drink bleach
And his numbers are up?
Im calling OUTLIER bullshit on this one.

[struggle4progress]

19. That argument persuades you, and it persuades me. It may not persuade people who are willing to hear

reasonable argument, if they don't pay much attention, because they can too easily parrot "He was misquoted" or "He was just joking," if that's what they hear from their friends. I think his numbers are down, and will slowly go down further, but we need to know (at erach minute) where we can successfully apply pressure

[Demsrule86]

43. Oh please...Trump is going to kill Americans for his poll numbers...and no president has won

reelection when the economy was in the toilet. Bush1 despite high numbers early in the campaign lost as the country was in a mild recession, Carter lost...and my Dad said that was one of the worst time ever economically...we can argue if it was Carter's fault and there were other things going on but for my Dad is was about the economy (he said to me once 'people vote their pocket books')...and in 1932, we saw a depression which is what we have now...and it was a realignment election. 12 Republican Senate seats were lost. And that is what we are going to have in the fall...I believe this is one of those pivot, pendulum swinging elections.

[struggle4progress]

47. I agree that Trump and his Republican supporters believe that he is entitled to do anything he wants

to ensure reelection: that's what he argued to the Senater earlier this year, and we must face the fact that he seems to be following through on that, in the worst possible way.

The question, however, is not what is true; nor is the question what his dead-end supporters think. The question is what the moveable middle thinks. I agree that if that portion of the population faces facts, they will reach the same conclusion that you and I reach. The moveable middle will consist of uninformed people, and they are likely to form opinions based on what they hear from the people around them. They will not be persuaded by our opinions: they are likely to be persuaded by simple one-liner comments about the economy, but they will be hearing a constant propaganda barrage blaming anyone-but-Trump

It is a mistake to pretend to know the future. We can lose by becoming over-confident

[Demsrule86]

49. I am never over confident but neither am I doom and gloom...Trump by all measures is going to lose

in November. The state polls show the trend...I believe this could be a realignment election where if we work hard we take eight or more Senate seats, add to our House majority and win the presidency in a landslide.

[struggle4progress]

53. I should prefer to say we'll beat him if we do the work -- but it's shooting ourselves in the knee

if folk sit back because we're sure he'll lose,

[Demsrule86]

67. Democrats are determined and enthusiastic...at the moment we are stuck at home...but Trump

is going to lose...and You heard it here first. I think we keep the House and take the Senate.

[struggle4progress]

73. I don't predict the future: I say we can win if we do the work, but if we don't do the work,

we'll lose. We'll see how "determined and enthusiastic" Democrats have been when the election totals start rolling in

[ProfessorGAC]

28. PINO's Numbers Did Not Go Up

Except in the silly job creation category.
He's still nearly 11% underwater on approval.
The backing stayed the same. Biden's number fell.
That's why I wouldn't put too much stock in this one poll.
Biden support fell but almost nothing else changed. That's an aberration. People didn't switch. Undecideds went up.

[betsuni]

20. Bullshit.

[agingdem]

24. the media and pollsters want a horse race...

five years ago they turned a "joke" into a viable candidate...they want a race...it's good for business

[DFW]

26. I remember the words of the three Davids

Plouffe, Axelrod and Simas

All important figures at one time or another in the Obama/Biden campaigns.

They told me in July 2012, that at some point or another, our (i.e. Obama's) lead will narrow or vanish Don't tear your hair out over it. That is "our (i.e. their)" job. Just hang in there, and we will win this.

They were spot on back then. I think the same advice could well be applied now.

[kentuck]

27. Forget about the polls until the last two weeks before election.

That is the time period Trump will use to tear down his opponent, no matter what lead he might have.

Be ready for a counter-offensive.

[OrlandoDem2]

29. Bottom line is Democrats must analyze voters, identify supporters, and get them to vote!

The GOP is incredibly effective at this and it’s how they won. They knocked down the Blue Wall through precision voter targeting. We have to do the same. Polls are meaningless. Go find the voters and get them out!

[pnwmom]

30. This is an online poll of people who identify themselves as registered voters.

It's not a poll taken of a random sample of voters from lists of registered voters.

It's just a cheap and easy way of doing a survey, but I wouldn't take it seriously-- especially because I can't seem to find any information about how they conducted the poll (other than online) and what the demographic breakdown was. How many men vs. women, racial breakdown, income, etc.

I couldn't find it on the Reuters/Ipsos website either.

[Demsrule86]

44. Exactly...it is a bullshit internet poll and completely meaningless.

[Garion_55]

31. Never forget the media loves a horse race

The media has to fill hours and hours and pages and pages of content. If the race is Biden + 7 from here until election there's very little to write about there's no drama there's no reason for cable news panel discussions.

Even if they have to manufacture polls to make it look like an even race they will do it in order to fill time sell advertising and give their hosts something to talk about

[mwb970]

32. Let me just remind everyone that Joe has not even been nominated yet.

The campaign has not yet begun. It might be a little premature to talk abut the polls and Biden "losing his edge".

[Demsrule86]

45. Same way in the primary...where the talking head breathlessly opined that Biden shouldn't even get

in the race as he was doomed doomed I tell 'ya'. This continued during the entire primary and now it seems beyond.

[janterry]

34. I am not surprised

[panader0]

35. Biden, unfortunately, cannot just campaign to the intelligent people.

His campaign needs to find a way to reach the easily distracted people.
What did Adlai Stevenson say when told "All the smart folks will vote for you."?
"That's not enough, I need a majority."

[bigtree]

36. bull

...reuters stirring shit.

Would be nice if your link worked.

Link to tweet

[cwydro]

37. He really needs to get a social media savvy team in place immediately.

I see the tangeranus face every time I go to YouTube.

From what I gather from posters here, he’s all over Facebook too.

[scarytomcat]

38. He needs to find a way to get on the issues of the day

Hit dump hard every day just pound him.. He also needs strong voices talking for him. Kerry and Warren and Sanders everyone lets get at it. Group conference calls get the message out.

[BGBD]

42. this is why we average polls

One poll is just me, we look at the whole.

Over the past year the race has been very consistent. Biden leads by ~6.

[DavidDvorkin]

46. Not according to the Monmouth poll

Biden currently has the support of 50% of registered voters and Trump has the support of 41%. Another 3% say they would vote for an independent candidate and 5% are undecided. This represents a slightly wider lead for the Democrat than in previous Monmouth polls – 48% to 44% in April and 48% to 45% in March.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_050620/

[Talitha]

48. Did this 'opinion poll' contact anyone here on DU? Yeah... me neither.

[jalan48]

50. It's unfathomable that the race is even close. Our future isn't looking good.

[struggle4progress]

54. Heed the people in this thread who doubted the poll results: other polls said other things

[jalan48]

55. Biden should be leading by double digits against Trump. If we can't beat Trump who can we beat?

[struggle4progress]

74. Biden might be beating the orangetan by double-digits: but since we don't really know

we should act as if it was a tight race

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. I think I will rely on the A+ rated cellphone/landline poll and not the B rated online one

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213398582

Better yet I'll rely on the average where Joe is up about 7.

[milestogo]

60. Its amazing that after 2 posts you know who the Bernie supporters are.

The question is who are you?

[Hekate]

62. I'm sure...

He'll enjoy his brief return.

[marble falls]

63. Good question.

[Hekate]

61. Hm. Welcome to DU, Miniapolo.

Scan the TOS you just sgned.

[Towlie]

59. Maybe Trump is benefiting from the restriction lift. Let's see what happens when that fails.

[zak247]

64. Biden is still ahead

General election poll means nothing. Biden will beat Trump as Hillary did in the general election count.

The key is in the 6 states Hillary lost and Obama won; never forget this is an electoral college race



Likely, the lower poll numbers are due to the temporary effect from the Tara Reade story.

It's favorable to Biden, in the long run, to get it out now.

[Yavin4]

65. I rely on average poll of polls. RCP shows Biden +5.9%

In every Biden vs. Trump poll since March 2017, Biden has lead in all of them except for 4 polls. The takeaway here is that Biden has solid support heading in the last 6 months of the election.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls