Infection rate rises across the country as states rush to reopen

[turbinetree]

By Associated Press -May 6, 2020 11:04 AM

Pockets of America far from New York City are seeing ominous trends.

Take the New York metropolitan area's progress against the coronavirus out of the equation and the numbers show the rest of the United States is moving in the wrong direction, with the known infection rate rising even as states move to lift their lockdowns, an Associated Press analysis found Tuesday.

New confirmed infections per day in the U.S. exceed 20,000, and deaths per day are well over 1,000, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University. And public health officials warn that the failure to flatten the curve and drive down the infection rate in places could lead to many more deaths — perhaps tens of thousands — as people are allowed to venture out and businesses reopen.

"Make no mistakes: This virus is still circulating in our community, perhaps even more now than in previous weeks" said Linda Ochs, director of the Health Department in Shawnee County, Kansas.

Elsewhere around the world, Britain's official coronavirus death toll, at more than 29,000, topped that of Italy to become the highest in Europe and second-highest in the world behind the United States. The official number of dead worldwide surpassed a quarter-million, by Johns Hopkins' count, though the true toll is believed to be much higher.

https://americanindependent.com/coronavirus-cases-infection-rate-states-reopen-new-york-covid-19/

30 states are doing re-openings.................

We are so fucked..................

[Alacritous Crier]

1. Surprise...

[BigmanPigman]

2. Rachel Maddow did good reporting on this and she

showed the graphs on her show last night. When you take NYC out of the equation, the rest of the country looks BAD! We should NOT be reopening.

She used the graphs from this NYTime site, I discovered last night. Look at ALL the graphs for the individual states which show the increases, steady, and falling cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

[nitpicker]

3. Not so fast

1. Part of any increase in daily reporting of new cases (e,g, "Wednesday over Tuesday" can be attributed to late reporting of events that actually occurred during the weekend.

2. I look starting at 0500 Eastern, finishing by 0700, at states' CV websites for currently-reported cumulative case and fatality totals and compare them to the previous day, flagging states with known issues (e.g. tests for all a KY's prison inmates and staff were done and most results were reported that day, clusters at meat processing plants, etc.) I'm looking for the PERCENTAGE of day-over-day increase.

3. As of this morning, 19 states without known cluster factors registered slight daily percentage rate increases over the comparison of the prior morning to the day before, but others declined.

4. In my opinion, it's too soon to be able to detect any effects of reopening, as it takes 7-14 days for increased contacts to result in increased daily new cases (detected via current methods). I want to wait until at least Memorial Day to see if reopening will have had the impacts I expect on percentages of new cases versus the day before.

(edit) One early indicator may be looking at where "let's pack the beaches!" or "let's all go out for Mother's Day!" seems to be correlated with increased cases in a week or two.