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77% of the unemployed believe they will get their pre-pandemic job back
Over 33 million Americans lost their job during the pandemic. 77 percent believe they’ll get it back, Post-Ipsos poll finds.... The vast majority of laid-off or furloughed workers — 77 percent — expect to be rehired by their previous employer once the stay-at-home orders in their area are lifted, according to a nationwide Washington Post-Ipsos poll. Nearly 6 in 10 say it is “very likely” they will get their old job back, according to the poll, which was conducted April 27-May 4 among 928 workers who were laid off or furloughed since the outbreak began. But there’s concern that many of these workers are too optimistic about being rehired given how much uncertainty remains about health and business conditions in the year ahead.
... But economists warn the optimism could be misplaced. The longer people are out of work, the less likely they are to be called back. In an alarming trend, companies such as General Electric and Nordstrom initially announced they were furloughing employees, a temporary layoff where workers aren’t paid but usually keep their health insurance. But now some of those furloughs are becoming permanent layoffs. MGM Resorts just warned it might make its furloughs permanent as well if businesses does not rebound this summer.
A new report from the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago predicts 42 percent of the recent layoffs from the pandemic will result in permanent job losses. There are two big issues: First, many companies are going bankrupt or shutting down permanently, so they won’t need workers. Second, even after parts of the economy reopen, many people will be hesitant to shop, travel and go out to eat as they did before. Businesses operating at half capacity or switching to online or takeout don’t need nearly as many workers.
“Even if a miracle cure falls out of the sky in July, it’s going to take demand a while to pick back up,” said Betsey Stevenson, an economics professor at the University of Michigan. “There’s no way travel or retail look the same and brings everybody back.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/07/nearly-80-percent-laid-off-workers-believe-they-will-return-their-old-job-post-ipsos-poll-finds/
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