Whats the unemployment rate going to be in 5 hours?

[Garion_55]

anyone wanna give their prediction?

The unemployment rate number is what I think has been terrifying the trump people the most.

Its probably going to be the highest number ever? and worse than that, its going to stick around for 30 days.

For a month they cant change it, grease it, spin it, affect it, ignore it. All they can do is hope the next number is better. It wont be.

So place your bet.


I say 18.9%

[dalton99a]

1. 17%

[Demovictory9]

2. news said 16%

[W_HAMILTON]

3. Everyone is predicting in the mid-teens.

I don't trust a thing this completely untrustworthy administration puts out, not even the jobs numbers that used to be relatively free from political bias.

I'll guess 14%.

[Celerity]

4. 16.1%

[Garion_55]

5. 3 more hours! place your bet!

i hate even having to post something this dark and grim.

we shouldnt be in this place. not at all 8-(

[MoonlitKnight]

6. 16.8%

But I would not be shocked to hit 20%. I think numbers are still suppressed by failed state unemployment claim systems.

We also have a ton of people being paid but not working. Partly from PPP, but mostly from companies trying to do the right thing. How long they can continue is the big question.

[kentuck]

7. 20 % of workers have applied for unemployment.

There was about 4 % unemployed before the virus. It seems it should be about 24%?

[irisblue]

8. Reported rate, 18%, actual will be higher

[Amishman]

9. 15.9%, a couple tenths lower than expected, stock market goes up 500 points

Because we are living in bizarro world

[Squinch]

10. Over 20.

[beachbumbob]

11. 16% +/-

[Celerity]

12. it is 14.7%, per MSNBC live, right now

[MoonlitKnight]

13. 14.7% seems low

Look at U6, the underemployment rate, it’s at 22.8%. That is the more accurate number for this situation. It covers unemployed, cut hours/pay, and those not looking because nobody is hiring.

[dalton99a]

14. +1

[Amishman]

15. some states systems are vaporlocked

and claims are not being processed in a timely fashion. Those who can't get their claims through are not counted

[MoonlitKnight]

16. This isn't just Covid

February payroll numbers revised down by 45,000.
March revised down by 31,000.

[duforsure]

17. Whatever trump lets them put out

It'll be closer to double what they put out, so 50-60 million is likely a lot closer to the real numbers, and from numerous states under reporting, and preventing new applications from being ignored and not counted, or letting their systems freeze up.

[MoonlitKnight]

18. Buried in the report, the real number is 5% higher

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

However, there was also a large increase in the number of workers who were classified as employed |
| but absent from work. As was the case in March, special instructions sent to household survey |
| interviewers called for all employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business |
| closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all |
| such workers were so classified. |
| |
| If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over |
| and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed |
| on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher |
| than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data |
| from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions |
| are taken to reclassify survey responses.

[Baclava]

19. Can we call this Trump's Great Depression now?