14.7% Unemployment rate

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

[MoonlitKnight]

1. U6 is 22.8%

[Amishman]

8. keep in mind the impact of the PPP loan programs as well

A lot of small businesses took out PPP loans, which require them to maintain payroll. Many of these same businesses are either reduced operations or closed completely. The result is they have a lot of people sitting at home not actively working but still getting paid. Those people are not counted in these numbers.

[Amishman]

2. and the stock market will soar

fools rally.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Keep in mind this is stale data already

This was from survey's a few weeks ago, the number is certainly above 25% now.

[spanone]

4. and the Dow futures are up +181

WTF?

[spanone]

6. the FUTURES JUST ROSE TO +257

AFTER JOBS NUMBERS RELEASED

[Gothmog]

5. The new Herbert Hoover is trump

Link to tweet

[MoonlitKnight]

7. Reason the market is up...the Fed

“ As a proportion of nominal GDP, the Fed’s balance sheet was 19% in 4Q19, the ECB’s at 39%, the BoE at 26% and the BoJ at 105%. At the time of writing, the Fed’s balance sheet has already increased to the equivalent of 32% of estimated 2020 GDP with a commitment to open–ended QE purchases and a recent announcement of an additional USD2.3 trillion (11% of GDP) credit facility for business lending. We see the Fed balance sheet – on a broad basis including QE and other components – reaching about USD10 trillion by year-end.”

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/economics-dashboard-central-bank-balance-sheets-central-banks-balance-sheets-surge-on-coronavirus-crisis-24-04-2020

[Amishman]

10. The Fed's rising balance sheet should not be cause to rally

the fed buys up bonds, which will need to be repaid. The fed's rising balance sheet is one of the most visible signs of the building corporate debt trap which will slam the brakes on economic expansion for years to come.

[MoonlitKnight]

15. The debt they are buying has freed up cash going into stocks

Several hedge funds were essentially bailed out by the Fed actions. Not to mention the companies that issued the junk debt.

You are correct that this needs to unwind at some point.

The Fed was taking action and cutting rates before the pandemic. Let’s not forget that fact. We already had a slowdown and market set for correction.

There is a lot of regular investor cash on the sidelines. PE ratios are ridiculously high right now. Short term you can’t fight the Fed. But at some point it will break badly. My bet is right after the election.

[uponit7771]

12. +1,The Feds have ***COMMITTED*** to buying junk bond ETFs !! That's some shit there, Main

... street gets a middle finger from the feds while wall street gets the worse debt bought.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. Trump just wiped out all of his, Obama's and Bush's job gains

He's eating into Bill Clinton's gains now.

[uponit7771]

11. ***NOTE*** The BLS left off 5% for furloughed workers !! It would be 21% if furloughed workers were

... included

[MoonlitKnight]

13. Real number should be 5% higher

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

However, there was also a large increase in the number of workers who were classified as employed |
| but absent from work. As was the case in March, special instructions sent to household survey |
| interviewers called for all employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business |
| closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all |
| such workers were so classified. |
| |
| If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over |
| and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed |
| on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher |
| than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data |
| from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions |
| are taken to reclassify survey responses.

[uponit7771]

14. +1

[Gothmog]

16. NYT headline

Link to tweet