BTRTN 2020 Senate Snapshot: Dems Now Have a Greater-Than-50% Chance of Winning the Senate
Born To Run The Numbers provides its comprehensive analysis of the 2020 Senate races, and predicts that the Democrats have a better than even shot at controlling the Senate:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/05/btrtn-2020-senate-snapshot-dems-now.html
Excerpts: "It is early, to be sure; relatively few primaries have been held to determine the final Senate pairings, and of course, we are nearly six months away from Election Day, in the midst of the monumentally unpredictable coronavirus epidemic. But at this point, according to our BTRTN model, if the elections were held today, Democrats would have a 55% chance of taking control of the Senate...
"Democrats are in good position to flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, while the GOP appears likely, as of today, to flip back Alabama. And the GOP may be vulnerable in several other states, most notably Iowa, but also others. We may not know who controls the Senate for certain until early January, when Georgia may have to hold a run-off election if the open (“jungle”) primary on Election Day fails to produce a majority winner...
"But the picture has become far more favorable for the Democrats, and the takeover dream is far more realistic. This is based on a number of factors: early polling across many states favoring Dem challengers, Dem fundraising capability, and a darkening national mood, troubled by both the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus and GOP governors hastening to reopen their states...
"Colorado...Hickenlooper leads in two very recent polls by +18 and +17 points..."
"North Carolina....Cal Cunningham is a former State Senator who won the Democratic primary rather easily, and he leads Tillis by +9 points in each of two recent polls..."
