4 reasons state plans to open up may backfire -- and soon

[babylonsister]

4 reasons state plans to open up may backfire — and soon
States are opening up their economies. Scientists fear this isn’t going to end well.
By Brian Resnick@[e-mail] May 9, 2020, 9:20am EDT


On Monday, Missouri will allow concerts to resume for the first time since the state’s stay-at-home order started at the beginning of April. Yes, concerts, where people usually pack together, breathing the same air. Apparently, the Missouri government believes it will be safe if people attending stand 6 feet apart.

It’s not just concerts: Under Gov. Mike Parson’s direction, all businesses in the state can resume operations, provided that employees and customers keep some distance between themselves. (The exception: St. Louis will remain in lockdown.) Meanwhile, the number of daily new positive cases is still trending upward in Missouri.

What’s happening in Missouri is beginning to happen in many parts of the country even though most states still fail, as this New York Times interactive shows (at link), to meet the White House’s criteria for doing so: having a downward trajectory of cases over a two-week span, along with increased testing capacity.

It’s understandable that states want to open up. The pandemic has resulted in a painful and scary economic downturn; unemployment has spiked to 14.7 percent. There’s an emotional toll to social distancing, too: How many people haven’t seen their families in months, are severely lonely, or are desperate for physical contact?

But is the public health situation really all that different than when lockdowns began in March? According to epidemiologists, no. Although the situation varies from place to place, now, in general, doesn’t appear to be the best time for Americans to return to close proximity to one another. There are four main reasons:

Nationally, the outbreak has either peaked or plateaued. But there is a lot of infection still out there.

While the toll of the pandemic has been immense — there have been more than 76,000 recorded deaths in the United States as of May 8 — the vast majority of the population still has not been infected, has no immunity, and is fully susceptible.

This virus is fundamentally very contagious, sneaky, and deadly. That’s as true as ever.

The US has wasted lockdown time: It needs more testing, more contact tracing, targeted isolation of infected people, and the quarantining of their contacts. It also needs more research into social distancing to know what relaxed measures are safe.

Epidemiologists’ predictions for what will happen next are grim. “If we open up, and do exactly what we were doing in March, we’re going to see a huge increase in cases,” Eleanor Murray, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health, says. “We’ll go back to that same exponential trajectory.” That, in turn, will further strain and potentially overwhelm the capacity of a health care system that’s already been dealt brutal financial and psychological blows from the first wave.

It’s possible, based on new projections from Columbia University, that states opening up will lead to an increase of 10,000 new cases or more each day by June.

more...

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/5/9/21251034/covid-19-reopening-economy-plans-missouri-georgia-science

[Wounded Bear]

1. Until we get widespread testing, it's a low odds long shot...

that will probably result in more outbreaks.

[jimfields33]

21. There all opening blue and red alike. It's crazy.

[liberalla]

2. "The US has wasted lockdown time."

Yes it has.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. The Orange Anus and his

so called inept Advisors lost all control over this Covid Virus on day two with their how can we make a buck off this ideas.

Now they want to just open everything up and count on the Herd Immunity Lie to work and save their Orange King. Sweden proved it does not work,but,they have a much superior Health Care System in Place that is doing yeoman work to keep people alive knowing the first idea failed .


Trump has already declared Victory when he said,well we will be okay if only 150k or maybe 200k die. He and his Gangsters have posted the boundaries for bragging rights.

[central scrutinizer]

4. Concerts?

Everybody rushes the stage. You’re lucky if you have six inches of space. Hey, don’t bogart that joint, pass it over to me.

[Chainfire]

5. Do the stupid bastards

really believe that a second wave is going to be good for the economy? I just don't get their logic (or lack thereof).

[Squinch]

6. Nationally, the outbreak has NOT peaked or plateaued. New York has peaked. And

The NY area was responsible for the vast majority of cases. It is now on the downslope in terms of new cases and deaths.

But the cases in the rest of the country are INCREASING. It's just that the aggregate number looks like the virus has plateaued because the NY number was so outsized in it's effect on the total.

This is going to get really bad, really fast.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

7. And even New York could get another outbreak...

... given the estimates that they're not close to "herd immunity" percentages either.

They'll surely be far more cautious going forward than the yahoos in my area, though.

[Squinch]

8. Easily, but the rest of the country has a very false sense of security because

of the NY improvements.

And I say easily, but I think we here in NY have seen enough that even the more red among us understand how horrible this thing can be. Nothing focuses the mind better than learning that the guy that sat across from you at work, or the woman that checked you out at the grocery store, has the virus.

I suspect that, by the end of this, we in NY will not have seen the worst of the outbreak. Other places will suffer more. And that's saying something.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. I agree.

People in my area are mostly nonchalant about it -- not wearing masks in stores, etc.

I anticipate a reckoning.

[Squinch]

10. I feel for you, my dear. Hang in there. Are you able to stay home from work?

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. Yes, I'm not working.

I saved money for some unexpected event, like this.

The job was proving dangerous in other ways too, but I made the final decision after the company President said we qualified as an "essential business" in Ohio because we made STICKERS (labels) for SOME customers in the medical and food packaging industries.

I mostly see the denial of the pandemic from my car, while getting grocery store pick-up orders.

[Squinch]

14. Good. You can't change others. You can only hunker and ride it out. This will end someday.

Good luck.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

15. You too!

[sheshe2]

13. We also have the West Wing infected now.

Donnie and Mickie refused all means to stop the spread within the WH and in public. No masks, no social distancing. The idiots go to nursing homes and N95 factories unmasked to pass the virus on.

Yes, it will get really bad quickly.

3...2..1.

[Squinch]

16. I keep thinking about all the people in that nursing home, and those ancient

vets, and the slobs spreading virus all over them.

[Amaryllis]

12. In Oregon they are talking about POSSIBLY opening up events like concerts in the fall.

Depending on how things go between now and then.

[Dustlawyer]

17. Our beaches are crowded like a normal beautiful weekend with not a mask

in sight! All of those assholes will come home, expose their families, then go to work tomorrow. The restaurants are busy exceeding their 25% occupancy on Mother’s Day. Happy Mother’s Day Ma, nice knowing ya!

[paleotn]

19. Yep....

Nice mothers day present. Hey, Mom! Have some virus! Then they'll be all in a tizz when Mom crashes 3 weeks later.

[Hugin]

18. True. The single thing that's different now is the virus has spread everywhere. n/t

[BadGimp]

20. "COVID Roulette" ... that's what some states are starting to play with the lives of their citizens

“What we’re going to see is an unfortunate natural experiment going on,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University infectious disease modeler, says. “For the states that are loosening the restrictions and reopening, we’re going to see if they’re able to do it without having the virus blow up in their face. ... basically, they’re playing Russian roulette.”

Even if they Win, they Loose...