Betting markets see trump winning

[SoonerPride]

https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html

Want a depressing read?

Want to bet against trump and make some money?

The money is on Trump

Even after the White House's delayed response to the coronavirus outbreak, unprecedented job losses and a bruising recession, investors and betting markets are still putting their money on President Trump to win re-election.

The big picture: Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a sizable lead in most national and individual swing state polls — but money managers expect Trump to retake the White House in November.

In a late April survey of U.S.-based investors with at least $1 million of assets, UBS found that 53% said they planned to vote for Biden.
But 52% think Trump will win.

The intrigue: The world's most popular betting destinations show Trump as the clear favorite.

The RealClearPolitics average of betting websites gives the advantage to Trump with an average spread of 8.2 as of Sunday night.
Casino sportsbooks are paying around $83 for winning bets on Trump versus $135 for winning bets on Biden, making Biden the unequivocal underdog, Bovada shows.

What we're hearing: The expectation for Trump to triumph seems to largely reflect optimism about the economy once various state and local lockdown orders end, economists say.

"We can’t expect that the economy is going to be in very good shape, although the trajectory ought to be pretty positive by November," Steve Skancke, a former Treasury Department and Council on Economic Affairs official in the Carter and Reagan administrations, tells Axios.

As November approaches, it's "more than likely we’re going to see a positive stock market and there will be positive job growth," says Skancke, now chief economic advisor at wealth manager Keel Point.

Between the lines: "The wildcard obviously is the virus and the [potential] vaccine," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Investor Service, tells Axios.

more at the link...........

https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html

[tman]

1. It's pretty close and betting markets are often wrong.

I'm no more worried than I was 1 year ago.

It will be a close but winnable race. Joe is the slight favorite IMHO.

[GeorgeGist]

2. Republican operatives ...

Wouldn't try to rig the thing would they? More than just s**** and giggles.

[machoneman]

3. Yeah, since the Trumpian WH orders killed Vegas, on would think they like Biden. Wrong!

[Doodley]

4. I expect Trump to win too. Joe Biden will be smeared and redefined with Trump lies, and will

be blamed for Coronavirus deaths. Plus Trump will cheat and have the help of foreign players to help him win.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Well guess no point in voting then.

[world wide wally]

5. Who did they pick to win the Superbowl?

[PCIntern]

9. Not the Eagles that year..z

[MoonRiver]

6. Then a lot of fools will lose their money.

[shockey80]

7. Fools trying to predict something that can't be predicted.

Nobody can predict with certainty what this virus will do. To believe the economy is somehow going to be in good shape six months from now is flat out crazy.

[SoonerPride]

11. I agree. And I think we will be in economic freefall.

The help to the people is over and the pain will be immense and unbearable.

[RhodeIslandOne]

20. I dunno

Trump somehow managed to convince clueless people the economy was booming prior to this.

[superpatriotman]

8. That it's even close

Makes me want to jump off a bridge

[Bayard]

12. This is stupid

The virus is not leaving in 6 mo., and the economy and jobs will not come roaring back by then either.

[Vogon_Glory]

24. The virus, millions out of work, AND HURRICANE SEASON

approaches. The 2008 recession sank the Rethuglies’ chances, despite the right-wingers’ wet dreams, the COVID virus isn’t going away, and Donnie’s Insane Clown Posse will have ample opportunities to botch hurricane relief responses.

[treestar]

25. and not everyone is going to completely forget his incompetence!

This is indeed stupid.

[cbdo2007]

13. All other analysis aside, the incumbent always has better odds of winning than losing.

[lame54]

14. Wait a minute...

So they think Trump's got it - ok - could happen

But their reasoning?

Economic recovery? - bullshit

If Trump wins it's because he(they) cheated successfully

[gratuitous]

15. If they're betting on a substantial economic recovery by November

I'd say this isn't the smart money talking, but rather the wishful thinking money.

[SoonerPride]

18. We have a whole country of magical thinkers. Sadly.

"If I click my heels together three times then this will all go away and life will return to what it was like 3 months ago."

No, sweetheart, that ain't how it works.

[Happy Hoosier]

16. It's because so many of us have lost faith in the American electorate.

To put it bluntly,40%+ of the American public is malignant.

[SoonerPride]

19. This is so true.

[A HERETIC I AM]

17. There is a shit ton of people who never respond to polls that have had enough if this asshole

I just have a feeling, and yes, just a feeling, that it will be a landslide for the Democratic Party in November.

I just think that a substantial number of people who don’t typically vote will come out.

Not just “substantial”, but come out in droves.

The American People by and large don’t put up with too much bullshit. They just don’t. Trump had ten million more people vote AGAINST him than voted for him.

People seem to forget that point. It wasn’t that HRC beat him by 3 million, its that a further seven million wanted someone OTHER THAN Trump.

Those people and then some will come out. I just have a sneaking suspicion.

No economist worth the paper his degree is printed on would suggest everything will be well on the mend by November.

It just ain’t gonna go down like that.

Could he win? Sure. Of course he could. Americans are fucking stupid in many ways.

But so many of them don’t bother to vote, that if only a small fraction of those folks come on out and vote in November.....he’s fucking doomed, right along with the rest of the Republicans in power.

And then, he gets to fly back to New York on Inauguration Day and get promptly arrested by US Marshalls acting at the behest of the SDNY.

[SoonerPride]

26. He won't ever go to NY.

In fact he may high tail it to Russia and never set foot in the US again.

[GoCubsGo]

21. What's really depressing is how few people understand the difference between

actual odds and betting odds.

[Mike 03]

22. Even when the economy was "good" it hurt more people than it helped.

He kicked people off health insurance and food stamps. How many people are working two or more jobs to make ends meet. The tariffs raised the price of goods.

There's also the problem of all the dead people. They aren't abstractions. As others have pointed out, it won't be long before almost everyone in the country either knows someone, or knows someone who knows someone, who has died or forever been changed by contracting this virus. And this president didn't care.

Can that just be forgotten because a stock market not that many Americans invest in rises?

[William Seger]

23. It's been pretty close to 50:50 on predictit.org for months

I still think my "investment" is safe.

[safeinOhio]

27. Buster Douglas was a 42-1 underdog

against Mike Tyson.