The Daily Dread - Tracking the spread, 5/11/20

[calimary]

All times Pacific, source: Johns Hopkins/NBC News

At 6:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,121,834
Deaths worldwide - 284,084
Confirmed cases US - 1,343,873
Deaths US - 80,724

At 6:42am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,125,979
Deaths worldwide - 256,106
Confirmed cases US - 1,344,141
Deaths US - 80,724

[sinkingfeeling]

1. Why would global deaths drop in 40 minutes?

[calimary]

2. Very good question. I went back and double-checked the numbers.

And that's what the number charts said.

At 6:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,121,834
Deaths worldwide - 284,084
Confirmed cases US - 1,343,873
Deaths US - 80,724

At 6:42am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,125,979
Deaths worldwide - 256,106 -- COMPARING THIS...
Confirmed cases US - 1,344,141
Deaths US - 80,724


So here's the next one...
at 7:03am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,126,972
Deaths worldwide - 256,117 -- ... TO THIS.
Confirmed cases US -1,345,134
Deaths US - 80,735

And the next one...
At 7:31am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,127,710
Deaths worldwide - 256,158 -- ... AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,345,872
Deaths US - 80,776

I can only conclude that the first statistic is an anomaly. Maybe a misprint? Or someone making up the graphics hit the wrong number? After you spend hours working with numbers, I can see how they can start running together. It's tedious work. And you have to be almost anal compulsive to do it right. I'm always worried that I'll have typed something that wasn't there. Always try to check it again before I post it.

Humans can fail. That's why editors are so valuable (even though they're human, too).

I'm gonna go back and check yesterday's figures also, to see where we left off by the end of the day. Might be informative.

[calimary]

3. Here's something interesting, sinkingfeeling... yesterday's numbers:

At 9:28am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,034,609
Deaths worldwide - 280,421
Confirmed cases US - 1,318,738
Deaths US - 79,834

At 9:30am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,034,609
Deaths worldwide - 280,424
Confirmed cases US - 1,318,738
Deaths US - 79,837


At 11:25am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,036,440
Deaths worldwide - 280,569
Confirmed cases US - 1,320,569
Deaths US - 79,982


At 1:25pm - only domestic data available
Confirmed cases US - 1,324,484
Deaths US - 80,057 - Sadly, we got there. And STILL climbing.


At 2:25pm
Confirmed cases US - 1,328,068
Deaths US - 80,249

FROM YESTERDAY, May 10th:
At 3:25pm (this was the last entry of the day, at least that I saw. And we had MSNBC on in the background til about 9pm.)
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,046,787
Deaths worldwide - 280,837
Confirmed cases US - 1,330,916
Deaths US - 80,250

My own UNscientific tracking is based on what graphics I see while monitoring the news. And I take a photo of it and then go back and copy the numbers from the photo, so I don't have to bother with trying to read my handwritten notes. I haven't tried to dig down far enough to find the raw data from which these graphics are drawn. First, you have to figure out where to start looking...

With the anomaly continuing, I'll just have to watch the numbers and keep copying them in here. Maybe put an asterisk in there? Because the global death figure continues to tick up, but today, from the lower number.

[calimary]

4. Update -

At 6:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,121,834
Deaths worldwide - 284,084
Confirmed cases US - 1,343,873
Deaths US - 80,724

At 6:42am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,125,979
Deaths worldwide - 256,106 -- COMPARING THIS...
Confirmed cases US - 1,344,141
Deaths US - 80,724


So here's the next one...
at 7:03am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,126,972
Deaths worldwide - 256,117 -- ... TO THIS.
Confirmed cases US -1,345,134
Deaths US - 80,735

And the next one...
At 7:31am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,127,710
Deaths worldwide - 256,158 -- ... AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,345,872
Deaths US - 80,776


And the next one after that...
At 8:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,192
Deaths worldwide - 256,171* -- AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,354
Deaths US - 80,789
* Still with 256-thousand and some. That's what it says...

[calimary]

5. Update -

At 6:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,121,834
Deaths worldwide - 284,084
Confirmed cases US - 1,343,873
Deaths US - 80,724

At 6:42am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,125,979
Deaths worldwide - 256,106 -- COMPARING THIS...
Confirmed cases US - 1,344,141
Deaths US - 80,724


So here's the next one...
at 7:03am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,126,972
Deaths worldwide - 256,117 -- ... TO THIS.
Confirmed cases US -1,345,134
Deaths US - 80,735

And the next one...
At 7:31am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,127,710
Deaths worldwide - 256,158 -- ... AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,345,872
Deaths US - 80,776


And the next one after that...
At 8:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,192
Deaths worldwide - 256,171* -- AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,354
Deaths US - 80,789
* Still with 256-thousand and some. That's what it says...


At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,854
Deaths worldwide - 256,180 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,530
Deaths US - 80,797

At 9:14am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,129,355
Deaths worldwide - 256,212 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,347,031
Deaths US - 80,829

*I'm still watching this number to see if it resets more along the lines of where we left off last night. So far it's holding steady at 256-thousand and some. Which makes me wonder how it was so much higher at the first read this morning, and looking back through yesterday's numbers.

No answers yet. This one seems to be holding steady at this lower rate.

But there are so many variables behind (and leading up to) these numbers that are nicely packaged in bold graphics to present to the public on TV. What kind of scrambles there might have been behind the scenes as number crunchers were waiting to hear back from their sources and hospitals and national AND world health trackers. And all those trackers and numbers-crunchers AND graphics designers and people inputting the numbers for the record are just that. People. Fallible human people.

[calimary]

6. Update -

At 6:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,121,834
Deaths worldwide - 284,084
Confirmed cases US - 1,343,873
Deaths US - 80,724

At 6:42am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,125,979
Deaths worldwide - 256,106 -- COMPARING THIS...
Confirmed cases US - 1,344,141
Deaths US - 80,724


So here's the next one...
at 7:03am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,126,972
Deaths worldwide - 256,117 -- ... TO THIS.
Confirmed cases US -1,345,134
Deaths US - 80,735

And the next one...
At 7:31am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,127,710
Deaths worldwide - 256,158 -- ... AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,345,872
Deaths US - 80,776


And the next one after that...
At 8:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,192
Deaths worldwide - 256,171* -- AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,354
Deaths US - 80,789
* Still with 256-thousand and some. That's what it says...


At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,854
Deaths worldwide - 256,180 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,530
Deaths US - 80,797

At 9:14am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,129,355
Deaths worldwide - 256,212 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,347,031
Deaths US - 80,829


At 10:05am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,131,086
Deaths worldwide - 256,417 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,348,018
Deaths US - 80,855

But then, by 10:07am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,131,113
Deaths worldwide - 256,418 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,348,045
Deaths worldwide - 80,856

* That worldwide casualty figure ticks up, like all the other numbers to, but it's still at the 256-thousand level.

Still not able to explain the discrepancy of earlier today.

[Trailrider1951]

7. It looks to me like the first number:

Deaths worldwide - 284,084

Has the second and third numbers transposed, that is, it should look like this:

Deaths worldwide - 248,084

This number fits the sequence. I'll bet this is the origin of the discrepancy.

[calimary]

8. Hey, certainly makes sense.

Having tracked these numbers for - uh - I forget how many days now, I know personally how easy it is when you're checking numbers with your eyeballs, while you've got one of your eyeballs on where you're typing to input those numbers! I made that mistake early-on, myself. It's pretty easy to do. So, now, I type something in and then hold the phone up so I can compare the number I just typed in really closely, without even having to glance away from the screen to the photo in my phone.

It's tedious work, but worth it, I think, so it allows folks here to see where, how, and how badly it's going.

AND the sequencing is valuable, too, because of what you were just able to discern, Trailrider1951. Educated guesses are sometimes the best and most sensible tools we have.

[calimary]

9. Okay, catching up...

At 6:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,121,834
Deaths worldwide - 284,084
Confirmed cases US - 1,343,873
Deaths US - 80,724

At 6:42am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,125,979
Deaths worldwide - 256,106 -- COMPARING THIS...
Confirmed cases US - 1,344,141
Deaths US - 80,724


So here's the next one...
at 7:03am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,126,972
Deaths worldwide - 256,117 -- ... TO THIS.
Confirmed cases US -1,345,134
Deaths US - 80,735

And the next one...
At 7:31am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,127,710
Deaths worldwide - 256,158 -- ... AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,345,872
Deaths US - 80,776


And the next one after that...
At 8:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,192
Deaths worldwide - 256,171* -- AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,354
Deaths US - 80,789
* Still with 256-thousand and some. That's what it says...


At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,854
Deaths worldwide - 256,180 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,530
Deaths US - 80,797

At 9:14am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,129,355
Deaths worldwide - 256,212 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,347,031
Deaths US - 80,829


At 10:05am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,131,086
Deaths worldwide - 256,417 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,348,018
Deaths US - 80,855

But then, by 10:07am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,131,113
Deaths worldwide - 256,418 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,348,045
Deaths worldwide - 80,856



At 11:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,133,031
Deaths worldwide - 256,537 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,349,963
Deaths US - 80,975

At 11:36am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,134,145
Deaths worldwide - 256,592 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,349,963
Deaths US - 80,975

At 1:12pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,135,428
Deaths worldwide - 256,644 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,351,246
Deaths US - 81,027

* Still keeping an eye on this. But it is tracking logically. I think sharp-eyed and discerning DUer Trailrider1951 figured out what the problem was. Somebody along the chain of custody regarding this data compilation probably reversed a couple of digits back there. Hey, it's a bunch of human beings doing this work. We humans are fallible even while we strive for perfection.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

10. Is the U.S. death rate slowing?

[calimary]

11. It does kinda look that way.

I sure hope so.


This is not just noting numbers, it's documenting anguish.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

12. Deliberately imposed grief and anguish.

The slowing of the rate right now doesn't take into account the recent 'protests', though.

[calimary]

13. And finally...

At 6:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,121,834
Deaths worldwide - 284,084
Confirmed cases US - 1,343,873
Deaths US - 80,724

At 6:42am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,125,979
Deaths worldwide - 256,106 -- COMPARING THIS...
Confirmed cases US - 1,344,141
Deaths US - 80,724


So here's the next one...
at 7:03am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,126,972
Deaths worldwide - 256,117 -- ... TO THIS.
Confirmed cases US -1,345,134
Deaths US - 80,735

And the next one...
At 7:31am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,127,710
Deaths worldwide - 256,158 -- ... AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,345,872
Deaths US - 80,776


And the next one after that...
At 8:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,192
Deaths worldwide - 256,171* -- AND THIS.
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,354
Deaths US - 80,789
* Still with 256-thousand and some. That's what it says...


At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,128,854
Deaths worldwide - 256,180 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,346,530
Deaths US - 80,797

At 9:14am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,129,355
Deaths worldwide - 256,212 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,347,031
Deaths US - 80,829


At 10:05am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,131,086
Deaths worldwide - 256,417 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,348,018
Deaths US - 80,855

But then, by 10:07am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,131,113
Deaths worldwide - 256,418 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,348,045
Deaths worldwide - 80,856



At 11:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,133,031
Deaths worldwide - 256,537 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,349,963
Deaths US - 80,975

At 11:36am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,134,145
Deaths worldwide - 256,592 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,349,963
Deaths US - 80,975

At 1:12pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 4,135,428
Deaths worldwide - 256,644 *
Confirmed cases US - 1,351,246
Deaths US - 81,027

At 8:12pm - domestic stats only
Confirmed cases US - 1,357,872
Deaths US - 81,468

Every one of those deaths has a loved one sick at heart tonight.