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Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020
FiveThirtyEightFormer Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump in most early polls, Democrats are leading polls of the generic congressional ballot by 2018-level margins, and general disapproval of the administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic threatens to sink Republican prospects across the board. On Tuesday, we’ll get a taste of whether Democrats’ electoral advantage on paper will hold up in practice, as California and Wisconsin hold special elections for two vacant congressional seats. The main event is in the California 25th Congressional District, a bellwether seat in the north Los Angeles suburbs, where both parties see a chance to add to their ranks in the House. But if Democrats are also competitive in the quickly reddening, rural Wisconsin 7th Congressional District, it could signal another blue wave in the fall. Here’s everything you need to know about the two races.
California 25th
The California contest will test whether Democrats can hold onto a suburban and formerly GOP seat they captured during the 2018 blue wave. This election — precipitated by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Katie Hill in November after she admitted to an affair with a campaign staffer — marks the second round of voting as no candidate won an outright majority on March 3 to claim the seat. So now Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Mike Garcia — the top-two finishers in that initial vote — are battling it out on Tuesday to serve out the remainder of Hill’s term, which ends January 2021. But regardless of who wins, Smith and Garcia will face off again in November because they both advanced from the regular primary, also held on March 3.
We don’t have much polling to go on, but the contest looks close. The last public poll of the race dates back to an internal poll the Garcia campaign released in March. In it, Garcia led Smith, 43 percent to 39 percent. According to Inside Elections, private polling has consistently found Garcia leading by the low single digits. Election handicappers rate it a toss-up. And Smith — a first-term assemblywoman in California’s legislature — and Garcia — a businessman and former Navy fighter pilot — have each raised and spent around $2 million. (The national party campaign arms — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee — have also been busy, too, collectively spending over $3 million in the district.) However, the once-conservative district has shifted left over the last few years: Mitt Romney won it by 2 points in 2012, but Hillary Clinton carried it by 7 points in 2016, according to data from Daily Kos Elections.
The California contest will test whether Democrats can hold onto a suburban and formerly GOP seat they captured during the 2018 blue wave. This election — precipitated by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Katie Hill in November after she admitted to an affair with a campaign staffer — marks the second round of voting as no candidate won an outright majority on March 3 to claim the seat. So now Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Mike Garcia — the top-two finishers in that initial vote — are battling it out on Tuesday to serve out the remainder of Hill’s term, which ends January 2021. But regardless of who wins, Smith and Garcia will face off again in November because they both advanced from the regular primary, also held on March 3.
We don’t have much polling to go on, but the contest looks close. The last public poll of the race dates back to an internal poll the Garcia campaign released in March. In it, Garcia led Smith, 43 percent to 39 percent. According to Inside Elections, private polling has consistently found Garcia leading by the low single digits. Election handicappers rate it a toss-up. And Smith — a first-term assemblywoman in California’s legislature — and Garcia — a businessman and former Navy fighter pilot — have each raised and spent around $2 million. (The national party campaign arms — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee — have also been busy, too, collectively spending over $3 million in the district.) However, the once-conservative district has shifted left over the last few years: Mitt Romney won it by 2 points in 2012, but Hillary Clinton carried it by 7 points in 2016, according to data from Daily Kos Elections.
Wisconsin 7th
Halfway across the country, Wisconsin is holding another election just five weeks after drawing widespread criticism for not canceling its presidential primary amid the pandemic. After the many mishaps of that election, Gov. Tony Evers reportedly considered postponing the 7th District special, but never pulled the trigger — perhaps fearing that a court would overturn his decision yet again.
So just like last month, polling places will be open in Wisconsin on Tuesday, and just like last month, some poll workers are begging out of working the election and the National Guard is being called in to help. It’s unclear, however, how many headaches will ensue. There have been no widespread reports of polling-place closures, and the ruralness of the district minimizes the potential for long lines. (In April, the longest lines were reported in urban areas like Milwaukee and Green Bay, which are not voting on Tuesday; the biggest city in the 7th District is Wausau, population less than 40,000.) Indeed, the Wisconsin Elections Commission insists that the state is better prepared for May’s election than it was for April’s, because there have been no legal challenges pushing to change the rules of the election and officials now have experience running an election mid-pandemic.
Halfway across the country, Wisconsin is holding another election just five weeks after drawing widespread criticism for not canceling its presidential primary amid the pandemic. After the many mishaps of that election, Gov. Tony Evers reportedly considered postponing the 7th District special, but never pulled the trigger — perhaps fearing that a court would overturn his decision yet again.
So just like last month, polling places will be open in Wisconsin on Tuesday, and just like last month, some poll workers are begging out of working the election and the National Guard is being called in to help. It’s unclear, however, how many headaches will ensue. There have been no widespread reports of polling-place closures, and the ruralness of the district minimizes the potential for long lines. (In April, the longest lines were reported in urban areas like Milwaukee and Green Bay, which are not voting on Tuesday; the biggest city in the 7th District is Wausau, population less than 40,000.) Indeed, the Wisconsin Elections Commission insists that the state is better prepared for May’s election than it was for April’s, because there have been no legal challenges pushing to change the rules of the election and officials now have experience running an election mid-pandemic.
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