Trump is making 'the dumbest possible move' with his newest campaign strategy: Nate Silver

[catbyte]

Published 3 hours ago

on May 11, 2020

By Brad Reed


President Donald Trump over the weekend has been ramping up attacks on former President Barack Obama, despite the fact that Obama will not be on the ballot in 2020.

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, however, thinks that Trump is making a historic blunder if he really tries to turn the 2020 election into a popularity contest between him and Obama.

“Turning the election into a referendum on Obama vs. Trump would seem to be one of the dumbest possible moves for Trump given Obama’s popularity, which was pretty good when he left office and has improved since,” Silver writes on Twitter, and then links to a 2018 analysis written by Perry Bacon, Jr. showing that Obama’s favorability numbers positively dwarf Trump’s.

snip

According to polling averages at Real Clear Politics, 59 percent of Americans view Obama favorably, while just 36 percent have an unfavorable view of him.

snip

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/trump-is-making-the-dumbest-possible-move-with-his-newest-campaign-strategy-nate-silver/

[MANative]

1. To paraphrase a great man...

"Please proceed..."

[malaise]

2. I expect it to start at the press briefing today

Please proceed Don the criminally negligent Con

[Roy Rolling]

13. Please please please

In branding world language, there’s no way people are gonna relate Obama as Nixon. Only idiots with no understanding of history will fall for that rewrite. You know, loyal Trump supporters. But nobody else.

“Obamagate” will never gain as much traction as “Fat Nixon”. The proof is, you can’t buy market share with zillions of mentions of the word. Branding is viral. “Obamagate” will never go viral, it’ll lurch into obscurity faster than New Coke.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. Good luck with that, trump! NOT.

[Turbineguy]

4. Good strategery!

Stay the course!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

5. As Obama would say, "Please proceed."

[Quixote1818]

6. Nate should be quiet and call him up and tell Trump how great it is. LOL nt

[BComplex]

7. Maybe we all should egg him on.

I don't tweet, but maybe others could kick it into high gear, and tell him to keep it up.

While he's at it, trump needs to go on and on about how he and the republicans intend to help us all get rid of Obamacare. Then we can all sit back and watch the republicans mess their pants!

[Recursion]

8. He can win with 36 percent of the electorate, though (nt)

[BadgerMom]

21. He won with the support of around 25% of the electorate in 2016,

but 43% of registered voters stayed home. I think more voters will show up in 2020. It’s our job to make certain that’s the case.

[sop]

23. If Democrats turn out, it doesn't matter what Trump says or does, or what his base believes.

The country's future is up to registered Democrats, we have the power. As Obama always told his supporters: "Don't boo...vote!"

[moose65]

33. Yes!

We must remember how narrow Trump's "victory" actually was. He won by 11,000 votes in Michigan, 22,000 in Wisconsin and 44,000 in Pennsylvania. He also lost the popular vote, of course, getting about 63,000,000 votes while Hillary got 65,850,000. If he wants to complete against Obama, he should go for it!

FYI, Obama got 69,500,000 votes in 2008 (the most votes in history) and he got 65,900,000 in 2012.

[edhopper]

31. No

that is too big a gap for him. But he can win if he is behind 5% and maybe even 10%.

Just depends on a few States.

He is currently polling around 40-43%

[Recursion]

48. He won with 25% of the electorate in 2016

He can definitely do it with 36% in 2020.

[edhopper]

49. I guess it depends if we are talking about all voters

or actual voters. My numbers were about actual voters.

[0rganism]

9. i doubt he's going to run with this for long, just enough to ramp #obamagate

it's not about making any meaningful accusation -- looks like he's got, at best, minimal ground for that

but very useful as a messaging tactic to inoculate himself from corruption charges and erode one of Biden's strengths

i see it all over twitter and youtube -- any mention of Trump's fuckups gets an immediate "#obamagate" response, sometimes padded with additional "information" about the 53 alleged transcripts.

Trump will pivot from it in a few days, and move onto some other equally baseless line of attack to motivate his cultists. he'll let Barr continue to stoke the fire, while he does something else.

people mistake Trump for a politician, and analyze his actions in that context. that is incorrect. rather, Trump is a mediocre entertainer and a skilled con-man, his actions should be considered in that light.

[erronis]

37. Agree. And his handlers in the Kremlin, Omaha have run this ploy through lots of iterations

This is not a real message, just a way to change the other messages.

[spanone]

10. the racist-in-chief is the dumbest 'president' ever.

[lark]

11. Watch - there were rumblings last week about Barr indicting Obama.

I think it would be totally stupid, but drumpf would gloat and revel and love every second of it, if Barr is that stupid.

[JenniferJuniper]

14. Yes, hardcore Trumpanzies

are convinced Obama is going to be arrested and indicted very soon. They are already wetting themselves over the "frog march".

I can't even with these clowns...

[elleng]

12. Keep digging!

[MissB]

15. Good

I have no issue with his blunders.

[denem]

16. MF45 can't help himself. And Obama will be featured heavily in the campaign.

Popcorn

[DENVERPOPS]

27. Of course he will

RepubliCONs have always used their "GAYS-GUNS-GOD" rants to rally their voters to come out to the polls. Those subjects have ALWAYS, rallied their voters to actually come out and vote.

This time it will be no different, with a few additions: "GAYS-GUNS-GOD-COLORED PEOPLE-HILLARY-OBAMA"
They certainly are getting a lot of mileage out of the RACISM, so you can be sure to see a great deal of that topic.

VERY REGRETFULLY, I honestly feel that the "fix" is already in play, from many many different angles, and that WASF.

I am truly dreading November 4th...... If we even make it that far. There is still 6 months more of this daily accelerating insanity and it is hard to tell what the RepubliCONs will dream up before then........

[denem]

30. 20% unemployment. trump's goose is cooked.

Whatever the shenanigans that go on in the campaign, after 5 months of stratospheric unemployment, people will be getting desperate. Biden was closely involved in the last recovery. MF45 is going down.

[progree]

43. Its well over 20% now ..

The Bureau of Labor Statistics admits to a classification error by many of its interviewers that would add "almost 5 percentage points" to the officially reported 14.7% figure if they were to correct it but they won't -- "However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses."

The 14.7% figure also comes from the survey week of April 12 to 18, about 3 weeks ago. As we know, there have been many millions more first time unemployment claims filed in the 3 weeks since, according to the weekly unemployment claims reports.

More Details:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=581690

The survey week for the unemployment number (the Household Survey) is usually the week that includes the 12th. If that's true for May, that will be the week of May 10 - May 16, the week we're already in, so there won't be very much in the way of people getting back to work in that survey.

The May jobs reports comes out June 5. Anyway, I'm expecting considerably over 20% unemployment in that report.

[wnylib]

47. Biden is the reason Trump is going after Obama.

Attack Obama as a means of descrediting hus VP. The Ukraine slur attempt fell flat. Nobody is buying Reade's accusations about Biden. So, Trump & Co. go after their favorite boogeyman, Obama to put down Biden by association.

[RDANGELO]

17. Narcissistic personality disorder

makes him susceptible to delusion. That is his biggest weakness politically. It is also part of the reason he was never fit to be president. He absolutely believes that Obama was leading the deep state to try to destroy him and that it will be exposed.

[NewJeffCT]

18. I disagree

Yes, Obama is more popular, but Trump's base - older white men and women - has been moving away from him recently for the GOP wanting to kill grandma and grandpa to open the economy.

This will remind them that they're running against "that black guy's" right hand man and get them back in line, fired up and ready to vote.

[stopdiggin]

42. kinda' agree

I'm not sure about the "black guy" ... But opening the economy (despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth) is a political winner .. and will probably continue to be even with increased mortality. The closed economy was just never going to work for any length of time. Full stop. People all over the country are saying I have to work. I don't have a choice.

[wiggs]

19. Trump just needs it close enough to steal or take to court or whine about afterwards. nt

[fleur-de-lisa]

20. Every instinct Dumpy has, or ever had, is wrong. Always.

Everything

Trump

Touches

Dies

[progressoid]

22. I think Nate is confusing a popularity contest with deflection.

Trump is just shifting the blame for his mistakes back to Obama.

[LiberalLovinLug]

24. shhhhhh

[bucolic_frolic]

25. Feed their delusion

Take polls, write to them, tell them you're a defecting Democrat who has awakened and how brilliant Trump is for besting Obama. They just might buy it, in fact they will find the one letter they get and (*Bias Confirmation*) figure it represents all of America. This isn't as difficult as it seems.

[Brainfodder]

26. Maybe his dementia has him running against him?

Also, what was all this germaphobe BS about Death Count Donnie?

No mask and raw dogs at least 1 porn star?



Ignoring reports from the W.H. without pictures/video?

[Kali]

35. when you are a delusional dumbfuck who doesn't grasp the most basic science

you can think those things are fine while being afraid of "germs" - and not even know what a germ is.

[Brainfodder]

44. It's hard to believe he went to the University of Pennsylvania, actually took classes, and passed?

Now he's cornered with support team in place to back up all lies & whatever?

You screw the country up entirely, then the money is worthless and that feels like where we could be headed if he cons the re-election.

[liberalgunwilltravel]

28. Let's not forget Barr

It is important to remember that Trump is using the DOJ with a willing AG to go after his political enemies. Barr will do anything necessary to keep Trump in power, even if it means making shit up. He knows if Trump loses he's going to jail or worse.

[progree]

29. Yahbut Obama's economic recovery was kinda slow, so yeah, that can be a campaign issue

Well, maybe not.

Per Bureau of Labor Statistics May 8, 2020, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm :

In April the employment-to-population ratio is the lowest since records of that began in January 1948 (72 years ago)

Ditto the unemployment rate (except it is at the highest, not the lowest, since that seasonally adjusted series began in January 1948)

And the April numbers come from a sample week of April 12-18. Many more millions of jobs were lost since then, according to the weekly new unemployment claims reports

Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics admits the official unemployment rate is almost 5 percentage points higher than the 14.7% reported due to classification errors of some of the household survey interviewers (making it close to 20%)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

As was the case in March, special instructions sent to household survey
interviewers called for all employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business
closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all
such workers were so classified.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over
and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed
on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher
than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data
from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions
are taken to reclassify survey responses.

More Details:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=581690

[volstork]

32. Keep digging

asshole.

[aeromanKC]

34. Tearing down Dems and throwing shit at everything Obama is like Brawndo

It's what MAGAt's crave.

[flying_wahini]

36. Shhhhhhhhh! Don't tell anybody else. Just give them a bit more rope.......

[Skittles]

38. Trump knows hatred of the black man is red meat for his racist followers

yup

[C Moon]

39. What he's doing, just proves the point that he's focused on reversing Obama's presidency.

Those old rich white people hate that a black man was a successful and loved President of the U.S., and Trump is one of those old white freaks.

[warmfeet]

40. That's good news.

I hope the orange dotard does exactly that. I hope he gets his ass handed to him in the election. An historic, crushing defeat is my preference for the outcome.

[Cha]

41. Pliease Proceed Lysol Von Syphilis.

[nakocal]

45. And of the 36% who view him as unfavorable

Almost 100% of the fall into one or more of the following categories:

Racist
Bigoted
Willfully Ignorant
Incapable of Independent Thought

[Blue Owl]

46. Proceed you rancid, loathsome, stupid sack of shit

n/t