BTRTN California's 25th District Special Election: A Close Vote in a Tough Time

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers provides its prediction for tomorrow's special election in California's 25th District:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/05/btrtn-californias-25th-district-special.html

"Since Trump won the presidency in 2016, virtually every race has been viewed as a referendum on his performance, from a slew of special elections, most of them held in red districts, to the midterm elections in 2018. By and large, Democrats have fared extremely well in these elections, flipping many seats and contesting many others thought to be out of reach...
"One of the most prominent of these races was the midterm flip of California’s 25th District in the House by Katie Hill. Hill’s 9-point win over incumbent Republican Steve Knight was one of a number of blue flips in California...It was not to last. Hill was forced to resign on November 3, 2019, after admitting to a relationship with a campaign aide. The seat has been vacant since...
"Symbolically, of course...special elections are viewed as harbingers of the national mood, and this one carries special significance. This is the first election since the coronavirus reshaped the world and the electoral landscape, and both parties will be eager to claim the win as a referendum on Trump/GOP handling of the outbreak, whichever way it goes...
"This is a toss-up race by any reckoning. Given the Democratic incumbency in this seat, the margin of victory that Hill won, the rabid nature of the volunteer support that drove that victory (and many others the Dems have enjoyed since 2016), and Trump’s poor showing of late, that Smith would be favored. However, given that there is no same-day presidential race to drive Dem participation, the mail-in factor, the inability of those volunteers to go door-to-door, the strength of the GOP candidates, the GOP leaning poll and the early voting trends favoring the Republicans. It is a very tough call either way. But largely based on those early voting trends, our official BTRTN forecast is that Mike Garcia will emerge with a relatively narrow victory, with a 51/49 margin."

[rockfordfile]

1. interesting