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Mon May 11, 2020, 08:13 PM

USA: Lowest number of new daily cases for six weeks. What does this mean?

Is this a trend?

Is the spread of the virus now under control?

Will cases increase with the reopening of many states?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

27 replies, 1703 views

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Reply USA: Lowest number of new daily cases for six weeks. What does this mean? (Original post)
Doodley May 2020 OP
Yavin4 May 2020 #1
Baitball Blogger May 2020 #16
guillaumeb May 2020 #2
kairos12 May 2020 #3
LizBeth May 2020 #4
spinbaby May 2020 #5
Wounded Bear May 2020 #6
mr_lebowski May 2020 #10
Stallion May 2020 #7
Buckeye_Democrat May 2020 #9
Wounded Bear May 2020 #11
BigmanPigman May 2020 #12
modrepub May 2020 #8
Raven123 May 2020 #13
Chainfire May 2020 #14
captain queeg May 2020 #15
SoCalDem May 2020 #17
Loki Liesmith May 2020 #18
kentuck May 2020 #19
Lars39 May 2020 #20
SoonerPride May 2020 #21
Mariana May 2020 #25
uponit7771 May 2020 #26
stillcool May 2020 #22
Hoyt May 2020 #23
PSPS May 2020 #24
Hekate May 2020 #27

Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:16 PM

1. Or bad reporting because yesterday was Mother's Day.

Give it a few days.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #1)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:50 PM

16. +1. I think they took a day off.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:16 PM

2. Poor reporting.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:17 PM

3. Means nothing in AZ. We are last in testing in the entire country. We could

be in a virus zombie apocalypse and our State Trump ass kissing stooge government would not have clue.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:18 PM

4. We have been open in more ways with protests and beaches opening and other things so

I am surprised to hear this. I have been looking at this information all day trying to get the facts. lowest number in six weeks says something I think. Hmmm. Still gonna stay home and watch but I am surprised by this.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:18 PM

5. It means we did pretty good social distancing

Two to three weeks ago.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:20 PM

6. Single data points are pretty meaningless...

Get back to me when it is 5-7 days in a row. I might feel a bit more hopeful then.

Better yet, when we have 15 days of generally downward numbers, I start to think that we're close to "control" of the virus.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #6)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:24 PM

10. Or less people are getting tested ...

On account of Trump talking like there's nothing to worry about anymore, everything can just open back up ...
This is the DU member formerly known as mr_lebowski.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:23 PM

7. Tuesday is Spike Day-and Its been that Way for at least 6 weeks

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Response to Stallion (Reply #7)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:24 PM

9. This. nt

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Response to Stallion (Reply #7)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:26 PM

11. Yeah, probably because Sunday...

fewer tests being done, fewer clerks entering the data.

Monday, they catch up for the weekend. Monday numbers show up Tuesday.

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Response to Stallion (Reply #7)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:27 PM

12. That is what I see as well.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:23 PM

8. In PA the new case numbers are flat or declining

While time will tell if this is a trend, if it holds up it shows the Governor's shut down order did what it was supposed to do. That has to be emphasized to the maximum degree possible. If people see no progress then they will cease to go along with this. There are already isolated pockets of resistance in some of the Red counties in this state. Expect full blown rebellion from the other side if there is no improvement in the number of new cases popping up.


Link: https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/coronavirus-cases-by-day-in-pa-51120-how-fast-is-covid-19-spreading.html

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:45 PM

13. One factor, the initial high density cities are over the first hump. Other states took the hint

and hunkered down.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:48 PM

14. In some places the numbers are continuing to rise

Look at Fl. and Ga.

Come back and review the numbers in two to three weeks as people resume "normal" activities.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:49 PM

15. We'll probably see a short term flattening

Followed by a big increase in places that are easing restrictions. Iím going to continue to lay low. Itís not a big deal for me because I retired. But jobs aren't going to go back to the way it was. You see restaurants that are packed when they open but itís from pent up demand. Most of us on the older side wonít be going back and once we have new wave of infections a lot of other people will stay away.

I love see DT squirm but if things really do improve Iím all for. I just donít see that happening anytime soon.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:50 PM

17. Just means that "trumpy states" are skewing the numbers

and since people die one by one, alone all over the place, it will be a LONG time (if ever) before we get a more accurate count..

We are bad at counting dead people..

Our only hope is for researchers to comb the local papers of every municipality (that still have a local paper) and then aggregate them.

Many will not even have funerals or burials (poor folks will be cremated or buried in mass grave sites).

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 08:55 PM

18. Monday numbers tho

Keep an eye on the Tuesday-Thursday numbers they are the benchmark.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 09:02 PM

19. I have noticed a discrepancy between the CNN numbers and the MSNBC numbers...?

..for the last few days.

I've noticed that they were both getting stats from John Hopkins University but that at close to 77,000 deaths, the numbers suddenly began to decline. At the time, there were about 1,293,000 cases total. The NYC numbers have been declining for several days. That was where most of the cases and deaths were happening.

I have noticed that MSNBC and CNN have grown further apart with their numbers, and MSNBC also credits their sources as Johns Hopkins and NBC. The total number of cases has now reached approximately 1,350,000 with approximately 81,000 deaths. That would be about 4,000 new fatalities in about 57,000 new cases. What does that tell us?

The death rate is a very high percentage, but the number of cases has dropped considerably, if the numbers are accurate?

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 09:05 PM

20. TN dashboard...

The number of cases go up by 20 or so every day, yet the number of new cases is 1. Uh huh

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 09:25 PM

21. It means nothing.

As others have pointed out Mothers Day reporting coupled with a general flattened curve overall coupled with some red state obfuscation.

I expect the total daily number of fatalities will be lower for the next 10 days or so before really starting to take off.
We may not see a day over 2,000 for a week or more.

It will give the public a false sense of security and mission accomplished.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #21)

Mon May 11, 2020, 11:36 PM

25. Red state obfuscation ...

It occurs to me that the states that are opening up quickly, against recommendations, will be especially motivated to undercount their numbers of Coronavirus infections and deaths.

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Response to Mariana (Reply #25)

Tue May 12, 2020, 01:55 AM

26. Lowest test per million are in red States like TX, KS, MO.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 09:41 PM

22. I use this site..

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
while I'm sure there are many more cases than reported, today was the first day I've seen our numbers in MA go down considerably, and I've been checking every day for what feels like forever.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 09:51 PM

23. One report means little, but it is better than "new cases are exploding." If they

remain low for days thatís a good sign, but not necessarily time to celebrate in a crowd.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon May 11, 2020, 10:47 PM

24. Best to use a three-day rolling average. Weekend reports are often filed late.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 02:44 AM

27. Lies and/or a lull before the Second Wave. It is not under control, we are still worst in the world.

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