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Tue May 12, 2020, 02:37 AM

Floridians Stopped Traveling Well Before Official Shutdowns, Data Shows

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a stay-at-home order that went into effect April 3. By comparison, California's stay-at-home order began March 19, Illinois' started March 21, New York's on March 22 and Ohio's on March 23.

Despite Florida's later action, the data showed that people sharply cut their travel well before their counties and the state issued stay-at-home orders.

For example, in the five days before Miami-Dade County's March 26 stay-at-home order, more than half the phones tracked by Descartes Labs never traveled more than a mile, according to the Times. That was a drop of more than 80% compared with data collected from mid-February to early March.

The analysis confirms what experts told CNN earlier this month as DeSantis took credit for the comparatively low infection and death rate in Florida.

Florida, the country's third-most populous state, has had over 40,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and over 1,700 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Its infection rate and death rate per capita have been well below those of other states, and experts are torn as to why that is.

Florida remains an enigma, according to multiple epidemiologists who spoke to CNN -- a place where unique factors like "car culture," lower density in parts of the state outside of Miami, less frequent use of public transportation and possibly even heat and humidity may have slowed transmission of the coronavirus.

Still, they worry that the Sunshine State will see a second wave of coronavirus cases as restaurants and many businesses open their doors.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/11/us/florida-coronavirus-travel/index.html

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Reply Floridians Stopped Traveling Well Before Official Shutdowns, Data Shows (Original post)
JI7 May 2020 OP
DallasNE May 2020 #1
sarcasmo May 2020 #7
DallasNE May 2020 #8
Roland99 May 2020 #9
DallasNE May 2020 #11
Roland99 May 2020 #12
babylonsister May 2020 #2
jimfields33 May 2020 #3
Chainfire May 2020 #4
Igel May 2020 #5
MiniMe May 2020 #6
Cha May 2020 #10

Response to JI7 (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 05:26 AM

1. They Missed One Obvious Reason

Florida has a high number of retirees living there and they hunkered down early in the process. If heat and humidity were a strong factor then why has New Orleans been hit so hard. Or Houston.

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Response to sarcasmo (Reply #7)

Tue May 12, 2020, 11:19 PM

8. So Why Didn't Orlando Get Hit Hard Then

would most likely have been travelers from Europe and they would have been flocking to both places. Orlando and New Orleans have similar weather that time of year, I would think. The other thing that bothers me on the timing is that the first case didn't show up until 13 days after Marti Gras ended. But this veers away from my point about something beside heat to explain why south Florida as been spared. So was Orlando, with Disney World going full blast, but New Orleans wasn't. Old people hunkering down has been a difference maker.

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #8)

Tue May 12, 2020, 11:24 PM

9. Theme parks closed March 15. And most were out of staters

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #9)

Wed May 13, 2020, 01:35 AM

11. And They Weren't At Marti Gras?

Including people from Europe that were spreading the virus.

Plus, Marti Gras ended 13 days before the first reported case in New Orleans. One would have expected the first case to occur roughly 1 week earlier than it did. But post Marti Graw the French Quarter is still a popular tourist attraction so it likely did start in the French Quarter but not necessarily during Marti Gras. Orlando has similar weather to New Orleans, is a popular tourist attraction so it looks more like luck of the draw rather than weather that was responsible for the vastly different outcome.

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #11)

Wed May 13, 2020, 07:02 AM

12. There may have been a few at Mardi Gras but that's a 10hr drive

And doesnít have anything to do with Orlando theme parks shutting down 3 weeks before DeSantisí order

Several counties had already issued Stay At Home before the statewide order was finally issued

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Response to JI7 (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 05:34 AM

2. Maybe the older population

took it more seriously. We have been and will continue to hunker down for the time being. Definitely a car culture where I live and there is very limited public transportation-buses. Makes sense.

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Response to JI7 (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 06:16 AM

3. Definitely no public transportation

We donít even have a city bus available. I should say town. City in actuality is not what we are.

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Response to JI7 (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 07:57 AM

4. My area of Florida has no public transportation

because we are so rural that we have no place to go.

One thing that I have not seen considered is that, because of Floridians advanced average age, perhaps there is also more wisdom. When you become old enough to come to terms with your own mortality, as a fact rather than a theory, you tend to be more cautious.

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Response to JI7 (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 08:40 AM

5. These are unique?

Florida remains an enigma, according to multiple epidemiologists who spoke to CNN -- a place where unique factors like "car culture," lower density in parts of the state outside of Miami, less frequent use of public transportation and possibly even heat and humidity may have slowed transmission of the coronavirus.


Sounds like the epidemiologists have stop thinking that the rest of the world is like a few US states.


However, there are two stories that are likely linked in an unpleasant way.

One is a gotcha story: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142468711 and later incarnations of the same idea. https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213289115 It turns out we did lock down earlier than we locked down.

The second is a non-story because nobody wants to report on it in a positive way--it's who we are, apparently. All the models called for a much higher death toll, with a very good chance of exceeding capacity in the US by a wide margin. That didn't happen. IMHE was routinely panned for lowering its predictions, but it's because it was predicting, day by day, death tolls dozens to hundreds higher than what was reported. And when you're trying to model data and you're overpredicting, it's a bad thing. Even taking into account overlooked/off-book deaths because they're misclassified doesn't help, the numbers aren't there.

But the models assumed lockdowns happened when announced. Not a week or two earlier. So that locking down earlier *did* save lives. Except in the areas that were leading the way--the stage was already set. Had Trump pushed mitigation a week or two earlier he would have done it about the same time the actual informal locking down happened.

The unpleasantness is that if the population hadn't done the informal self-locking-down it would have been much worse.

It also requires a bit of a rewrite of the narrative. Trump's irresponsibility wasn't a big deal. And the awesomeness of the lockdown orders and the hundreds of lives saved by governors who made the orders--not bad governors in "those" states--suddenly evaporates. The bad governors didn't need to do anything, and the good governors were late to the game.

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Response to JI7 (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 10:21 PM

6. Maybe old farts don't take their phone with them everywhere

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Response to JI7 (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 12:27 AM

10. KR.. my sister, her family, and my nephew & his

girlfriend live in Gainesville and St Pete. Two more liberal cities.

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