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Tue May 12, 2020, 08:02 AM

How to misread the epidemic?

NYC was the epicenter of the attack within the US. At times, they had more cases than the rest of the country combined.

When their numbers started to go down, it would be expected to have the numbers fall all across the country. If the numbers stayed near the same or decreased just a minimal amount, that would indicate that the rest of the country was still growing the virus. It is a precarious moment, in my opinion.

It seems like we are somewhere near this middle of this crisis?

Does anyone else see it nearing the end?

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Reply How to misread the epidemic? (Original post)
kentuck May 2020 OP
Botany May 2020 #1
Tetrachloride May 2020 #2
captain queeg May 2020 #3

Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 08:07 AM

1. The real science says we are looking @ 18 months to 2 years

Michael Osterholm @ the University of Minnesota is the go to man on the subject.

"The steps we will recommend will be based on our current reality and the best available data," ead the preface from CIDRAP Director Michael Osterholm. "Our goal is to help planners envision some of the situations that might present themselves later this year or next year so that they can take key steps now, while thereís still time."

The first report reflects on the COVID-19 pandemic so far and compares it to pandemics of the past, such as the 1918 Spanish flu. By looking at behavior patterns from past influenza outbreaks, CIDRAP experts believe the coronavirus pandemic may last 18 to 24 months. In the new report, CIDRAP outlined three possible scenarios.

https://www.fox9.com/news/university-of-minnesota-infectious-disease-experts-outline-3-scenarios-for-covid-19-pandemic

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 08:13 AM

2. In Wisconsin, the last time I went shopping on Madison's East Side

the uneven usage of masks concerned me.

Also, among the homeless population: I am told the homeless are being put up by local authorities in a hotel and that mask usage is non-existent there.

So, I believe there will be an upward trend of new cases fairly soon, despite recent "favorable" numbers.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 08:36 AM

3. It's too early to say but I think things will get much worse in a couple weeks

The damage will be done by then. Even if we clamp down again the cat will be out of the bag itís like watching the country self destruct. It feels like itís happening slowly just because we are in the middle of it but itís really pretty fast. Look how damaged we are in just 4 months.

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