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Tue May 12, 2020, 04:27 PM

CNN reports IHME model increases fatality forecast to 147,000 by Aug 4

and the IHME model is crap that constantly under estimates

so the REAL projection numbers are probably 250,000....

jesus

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Reply CNN reports IHME model increases fatality forecast to 147,000 by Aug 4 (Original post)
SoonerPride May 2020 OP
USALiberal May 2020 #1
SoonerPride May 2020 #3
USALiberal May 2020 #4
brush May 2020 #6
uponit7771 May 2020 #2
SoonerPride May 2020 #5
drray23 May 2020 #7
SoonerPride May 2020 #9
Blue_true May 2020 #8
ProfessorGAC May 2020 #10

Response to SoonerPride (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:27 PM

1. That model has been a mess the whole time. Nt

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Response to USALiberal (Reply #1)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:29 PM

3. oh yes I know, it is useless, except it is "official" model touted by the WH

which makes it newsworthy, I guess.

but its predictive usefulness is nil

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #3)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:30 PM

4. I agree! Nt

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #3)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:51 PM

6. And somehow the idiotically inept WH thinks 147,000 deaths by then...

Last edited Tue May 12, 2020, 06:11 PM - Edit history (1)

makes them look good. They live in their own up-side-down. bizzarro world, which going by that model still leaves three months to election day, and with a very conservative estimate of 30k deaths a month, would be some 240,000 deaths by election day on Nov. 3.

Hallelujah!

Are they all snorting Adderol in the trump WH?

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Response to SoonerPride (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:28 PM

2. K&R, IHME assumptions beyond asinine and the new one is too assuming we'll have "testing" that's ...

... like having a sane president.

The failing of the 4th estate is proffer and frame questions as Trump is sane, he's not

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #2)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:42 PM

5. Yes. Their assumptions are just stupid

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Response to SoonerPride (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 05:00 PM

7. I think the issues with most models and particularly this one

is probably not the math underneath but rather the unrealistic assumptions that they have. For example, expecting that there will be wide scale testing and good quarantining. I would like to see what all these models say if they ran them with realistic expectations or even the worst case scenario where we do nothing. That would likely result in much higher numbers and probably closer to the actual truth..

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Response to drray23 (Reply #7)

Wed May 13, 2020, 06:36 AM

9. I agree. I think enough people are ignoring warnings

I think they need to factor in closer to worst case scenario because a significant number of people are ignoring all guidance.

No masks
No distance
No concern at all

How does that increase the infection rate?

probably badly .

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Response to SoonerPride (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 10:22 PM

8. We will likely hit that by the first week of July. nt

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Response to SoonerPride (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 06:38 AM

10. I Checked It Yesterday

The upper end of the prediction interval was about 243,000.
The lower end, around 113,000.
So, your 250k isn't unrealistic.

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