General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWe Lost CA-25, Katie Hill's Seat
California House 25
Last updated: 5/12/2020, 8:16:50 PM
Candidate Votes Percent
Mike Garcia (R) 77,459 55.67%
Christy Smith (D) 61,679 44.33%
70.55% reporting (206 of 292 precincts) 139,138 total votes
diva77
(7,639 posts)That SUCKS BIG TIME!!!!!!
Stinkin' Trump Pandemic took the wind out of Christy Smith's campaign
mwooldri
(10,302 posts)CaliforniaPeggy
(149,580 posts)Proud Liberal Dem
(24,402 posts)You see stuff like this happens once in a while where a seat flips due to the previous occupant resigning in scandal. I don't think it's indicative of any kind of GOP resurgence even if they treat it like one.
mvd
(65,170 posts)Hopefully a Biden win will carry momentum back to the Democrats.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)Problem with winning that area is that it's probably the second or third most conservative area in California: Kern County is pretty conservative and probably the most conservative, Modoc County with its welfare-Libertarians is probably second and then Simi Valley which is a large chunk of the district
Probably are not going to win it again unless this twit they elected turns out to be a nut
JI7
(89,244 posts)This is just to fill the remaining of Hill's term .
Cha
(297,119 posts)BGBD
(3,282 posts)That's not 70% of the vote, all you are seeing right now is the early mail in ballots, we don't even know how many votes are left to count.
Best to let this one play out a bit more.
diva77
(7,639 posts)to vote against their best interests.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)Lots of money there
Very conservative area
Since they seem to only care about having lots of police to thwart crime and getting low taxes, it's hard to argue that Simi Valley votes against its own interests
Amishman
(5,554 posts)if they are a bunch of rich people wanting to protect their wealth above all else, they are doing exactly what they should to achieve that selfish goal.
They are voting against the common interests of the greater public
edit: the way the sentence wrapped, i misread what rpannier was saying. I'll still leave this though since I agree.
diva77
(7,639 posts)saidsimplesimon
(7,888 posts)vote count? Can anyone share an analysis of votes by mail versus in person?
BGBD
(3,282 posts)ONLY the early vote by mail. It doesn't include the in-person vote or drop offs from today yet.
California is slow to count votes, it'll be counting for a while.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)It would be a lot better if we were only down 6 or 7% in the early vote, but these are some pretty Republican heavy returns. There's definitely a chance there are enough democratic votes from late mail ins and todays vote to hand it back to us.
This is a traditionally R district and regardless of results today, it's likely to go back to D in the fall when there is a regular election with regular turnout.
Cha
(297,119 posts)maybe a chance.
Mahalo for the further information.. a chance for Christy Smith in the Fall if this doesn't pan out.
chillfactor
(7,573 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)In 2018, there were cases where Dems were behind on the early mailin votes, but won the day of and late mailin votes big. Unfortunately, MAGATS vote early while Dems wait, that is bad because you never know what may happen to disrupt voting, better to vote early.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)78,701, 55.9% R
62,054, 44.1% D
All things considered, this isn't close.
Democrats just didn't return their ballots, sadly.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)by around 2%. Democrats are just slow to return ballots, that drives me nuts. The republican had around a 10% advantage on early returns, those are what got counted. Now we see if Smith can make that up with late returns and day of voting, which heavily favored democrats in 2018.
Also, do you remember that Sanders had something like a 20% advantage over Biden in early votes, Biden wiped almost all that out on late ballots and day of voting. MAGATS were roused up, they voted early big. Your concern is valid, if late Dem votes and day of votes are weak, that early surge may hold for the republican.
Lastly, Dem voters may feel burned by Katie Hill. Her former husband was a bore, but people seeking public office should avoid stuff that can be viewed negatively.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)It's a minor loss at worst, I know that. I'm not feeling defeated in the least if we lose this, just more focused on motivating Democrats to vote.
Your third point is also valid. Which doesn't mean in a worst case scenario we couldn't take it back in November.
Thanks for the wise words. They hit home with me.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)I'd have thought we'd have learned this lesson by now.
Beaverhausen
(24,470 posts)Im not surprised by this. That area is fairly red.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)It's still a shame to see it revert back.
Celerity
(43,285 posts)former9thward
(31,970 posts)Its no longer "fairly red."
sfstaxprep
(9,998 posts)I thought that it was really 70% of the votes counted, and that's a pretty big margin to make up with less than 1/3rd of votes remaining to count.
Hopefully she can make up some ground when more votes come in.
Cha
(297,119 posts)dustyscamp
(2,224 posts)We need to go out and convince more people to vote blue. In person and online. We need all the votes we can get.
Celerity
(43,285 posts)Celerity
(43,285 posts)Jennifer Medina
Jennifer Medina 7m ago
Tracking data shows a significant voting gap along generational lines. Roughly 56% of voters 65 and older returned a mail ballot. Just 19% of those younger than 35 did so.
Jennifer Medina
Jennifer Medina 7m ago
Theres a voting gap along ethnic lines, too: While 40% of white voters returned their mail ballots, only 21% of Latinos did so.
snip
If Mike Garcia's lead over Christy Smith holds, he'll become the only House Republican from a district Hillary Clinton won with more than 50% of the vote.
If the Garcia pulls this off, this would be the first D seat that flips R in CA since 1998.
I have to think COVID-19 came into play, as Dems are more likely to attempt to stay safe (not go vote and instead self-isolate) than Rethugs are, plus the Rethug goons are all running riot over Newsom's lockdowns.
sfstaxprep
(9,998 posts)Stay at home did not play a role, since Mail In Voting was being allowed.
diva77
(7,639 posts)the prior successful campaign were not an option in the critical weeks approaching election day this time.
Celerity
(43,285 posts)plus many move and the ballot never gets to them
plus like the other reply to you, it hurt our GOTV efforts
but again, my main point was the younger age cohorts and Latinx cohorts really turning out in poor numbers for us
we are political junkies on here
half or so of the US population at large doesn't even know who Pence is
close to 45% of all US voters did not even vote in 2016
these are POTUS election years, the turnout in the US is shit compared to almost every other advanced Western nation
compare this to Swedish turnout
In the 2018 Riksdag (our parliament) election, we had 87.2 percent voter turnout
when I went to UCLA a couple of years back, I was staggered at how little political knowledge many, many people had
Retrograde
(10,132 posts)but heavily encouraged. I believe all registered voters in this district were sent a ballot which they could fill in and return at their leisure.
global1
(25,240 posts)votes. They probably had some new method to employ and they wanted to see if it would work in this election. If successful - they can then use it in November. I would want the CA officials to really scrutinize this vote to see if there was any funny stuff going on.
I hate to be 'tinfoil hat' here - but the Repugs have a lot at stake in November and the pressure will be on them to suppress/steal votes and cheat.
Amishman
(5,554 posts)we know republicans, especially elderly ones, vote every time.
our base is younger, more easily distracted. I think complacency and Covid-19 hurt our ballot return and lost a seat.
this is also a seat that prior to 2018 was fairly reliably red. This is less of an upset and more of a return to the average.
DeminPennswoods
(15,273 posts)described Garcia as a GOP "unicorn", the perfect candidate for this district. Also, Dems reportedly expected to lose it.
Celerity
(43,285 posts)July 19 2019, 5:33 p.m
https://theintercept.com/2019/07/19/centrist-democrats-target-freshman-representative/
THE POLITICAL ACTION committee affiliated with a bipartisan caucus on Capitol Hill is spending money to back a Republican challenge to Rep. Katie Hill of California, a freshman Democrat who has been an independent and at times progressive voice in the House, despite serving in a district previously held by the GOP. Hill is whats known as a front-liner in Democratic caucus politics, because shell face a difficult challenge to hold on to her seat in Californias 25th District. Mike Garcia, an Iraq War veteran, launched his campaign in April, and the With Honor PAC jumped in to support him that same month. House Democratic leadership crafts its entire political and legislative strategy around protecting front-liners like Hill, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently chastised the caucus for criticizing vulnerable front-liners, suggesting they hit her instead.
In 2018 primaries, Crow, Luria, and Cisneros faced progressive primary opponents and won with the weight of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee behind them. They are now linked up with a PAC working in direct opposition to the interests of the DCCC.
snip
This PAC was started with help from Jeff Bezos (10 million dollars), Howard Schultz, etc etc
they ran an attack advert against Lauren Baer, a Democratic candidate for Floridas 18th Congressional District and supported the Republican, Mast as well
https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/recips.php?cycle=2018&cmte=C00659011
https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/recips.php?cycle=2020&cmte=C00659011
https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?year=2020&vendor=Mike%20Garcia%20for%20Congress
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/expenditures.php?cmte=C00661272&cycle=2020#topvendors
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)The Intercept is as anti-Democratic as they are anti-Republican, but when Bernie doesn't do well, they ramp up the anti-Dem, "OMG those CENTRIST CORPORATIST DEMS" headlines.
Celerity
(43,285 posts)The PAC is bipartisan.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)No, it's an independently led PAC with some Democratic participants, but limited to those who are military veterans.
Is that clearer?
"Democrat-backed" implies that the party is backing it, which is not accurate. Note also the use of the word "Democrat" rather than "Democratic" which is the language that the RW uses when talking about the Democratic party.
But the Intercept isn't about accuracy - it's about stoking anger and suspicion at both parties, but especially against the Democratic party, in years where Bernie pits himself against "Establishment Democrats" and clickbait headlines are just the start.
It's the National Review of left.
Celerity
(43,285 posts)The For Country Caucus linked PAC went after a FRONT LINE (aka in a very vulnerable seat) incumbent Democrat by supporting her opponent, then when she (Katie Hill) resigned, they still went after the new Democratic candidate by still supporting the Rethug Garcia. The caucus is co-chaired by California Democrat Jimmy Panetta, who was first elected in 2016 and is the son of longtime Democratic operative and former Rep. Leon Panetta. The caucus also includes Democratic Reps. Seth Moulton, Mass., Chrissy Houlahan, Pa., Gil Cisneros, Calif., Jason Crow, Colo., Jared Golden, Maine, Conor Lamb, Pa., Elaine Luria, Va., Max Rose, N.Y., and Mikie Sherrill of N.J. They all knew what was going on.
IF it had been an independent progressive PAC going after a front line incumbent Dem, then you would screaming bloody murder, especially if the prog won the primary and then lost a flipped seat in the general to a Rethug.
AOC, to pick out a favourite target of many, never once went out and endorsed after a vulnerable front line incumbent. She did not even support Cori Bush this time (and Lacy Clay is in a massively Blue district). The only 2 incumbents she endorsed the opponents of were the 2 worst Dems in the entire Democratic caucus, Cuellar and Lipinski. who are in completely safe Blue seats. They were also the ONLY 2 Democratic incumbents I approved of primarying, as I never support primarying a vulnerable Democratic Rep or Senator. Colin Peterson is almost as bad as Lipinski and Cuellar, BUT he is a a super ruby Red seat and he is by far the best we can hope for there. I have zero problems with any other Democrats left now, only Cuellar out of the entire Senate and House Democratic Caucuses.
Both Cuellar (who voted almost 70% of the time with Trump and the Rethugs in the last full Congress) and Lipinski are rabidly anti choice forced birthers, rabidly anti LGBTQ, Cuellar campaigned for and fundraised for a racist climate change denier Rethug John Carter against MJ Hegar (now she is running against Cornyn for Senate), Cuellar is A - rated by the NRA, and is the biggest Dem recipient in the House of private prison money and petrol industry money. Cuellar also voted against the Dream Act and was the only Dem to vote against other immigration bills. Lipinski refused to endorse Obama, voted against the ACA, and viciously and falsely smeared Marie Newman in 2018 with a series of dirty tricks, including calling her a Holocaust denier and anti-Catholic.
Both their opponents had wide-ranging support, including the very powerful and beloved by almost all EMILY's List, and other big Democratic backing groups. Lipinski went down (his district has went Republican ONCE in the last 60 plus years, in the 1972 McGovern wipeout, and flipped back in 1974, Cuellars has NEVER been held by a Rethug.), Cuellar did not, as his opponent was weak. I hope we run a decent centre-left/centrist candidate next time, one who actually believes in and votes for our Party's platform, which Cuellar certainly does not a shedload of the time.
I repeat for emphasis, if an active progressive Dem Caucus PAC or an indy progressive PAC associated with Dems started campaigning against vulnerable Democratic incumbents, the outrage wurlitzers would still be blaring a tune of hate. Hell, I would join in!
Even the bipartisan centre left to centre right (and actually worse ideologically IMHO than For Honor, which I have had zero other issues with besides this stunt, which helped us lose a damn flipped seat, even if their's was a smaller role) Problem Solvers Caucus PAC No Labels (which is truly RW-backed to a large, large extent) has not went after vulnerable front-line Democratic incumbents, although some of the Problem solvers Caucus (some of their Democratic members) did attack Pelosi in her Speaker campaign multiple times (btw, AOC did endorse and vote for Pelosi, and now has endorsed Biden, and is on his Campaign Environmental Committee)
as for this
I am calling it tosh, on two counts
1. A person who is member of the Democratic Party is called a DEMOCRAT, not 'a Democratic'
AND
2. I never have seen anyone who is centre-left or centrist favouring ever have a go at the biggest centrist Democratic Caucus (over 100 members now) for calling themselves
The New Democrat Coalition (when The New DEMOCRATIC Coalition certainly would be grammatically acceptable, and would adhere to the standard 'Democrat is a Rethug slur' stance)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrat_Coalition
The New Democrat Coalition is a Congressional Member Organization within the United States Congress made up of centrist Democrats who support an agenda that the organization describes as "pro-economic growth," "pro-innovation," and "fiscally responsible." Entering the 116th United States Congress, the New Democrats had 103 members, making them the largest caucus in the Democratic Party and the second largest overall (after the Republican Study Committee.)
But hey, they are centre-left and centrist (even a conservative, the above-mentioned Cuellar, who certainly is that), so, just like this event (CA-25), no harm no foul, eh?
Except in CA-25, there was a foul, and there was harm, as we lost the seat to the With Honor PAC-endorsed and funded Rethug.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)"Democrat-backed."
Celerity
(43,285 posts)Congressional members, as well as being Democrat (as in the syntax 'a Democrat' and 'multiple Democrats') backed and having Democratic Congressional members. I am sure the PAC has a shedload of indies as well.
Also, the very first sentence of the article states
Donors (to show Democrats backing it)
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgave2.php?cmte=C00661272&cycle=2018
2020
2018
Finally, I am quite capable of exercising discernment when it comes to media outlets.
You employed classic attack the messenger games because on the facts the article above was correct, as thoroughly documented now, and now also with a truly shit outcome (we lost a flipped seat) for its ending.
The Intercept put out one of the best debunking articles that should the Ukraines tosh levied against Biden was totally bullshit.
The Intercept comes to Joe Biden's defense in l'affair Rudy in Ukraine.
Link to tweet
A Republican Conspiracy Theory About a Biden-in-Ukraine Scandal Has Gone Mainstream. But It Is Not True.
https://theintercept.com/2019/05/10/rumors-joe-biden-scandal-ukraine-absolute-nonsense-reformer-says/
VIRAL RUMORS that Joe Biden abused his power as vice president to protect his sons business interests in Ukraine in 2016, which spread last week from the pro-Trump media ecosystem to The New York Times, are absolute nonsense, according to Ukraines leading anti-corruption activist. That evaluation is backed by foreign correspondents in Kiev and a former official with knowledge of Bidens outreach to Ukraine after President Viktor Yanukovych was deposed in a popular uprising in 2014.
In an interview with The Intercept, Daria Kaleniuk, an American-educated lawyer who founded Ukraines Anti-Corruption Action Center, expressed frustration that two recent front page stories in The New York Times, on how the conspiracy theory is being used to attack Biden, failed to properly debunk the false accusation. According to Kaleniuk, and a former anti-corruption prosecutor, there is simply no truth to the rumor now spreading like wildfire across the internet.
The accusation is that Biden blackmailed Ukraines new leaders into firing the countrys chief prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, to derail an investigation he was leading into a Ukrainian gas company that the vice presidents son, Hunter, was paid to advise.
The truth, Kaleniuk said, is that Shokin was forced from office at Bidens urging because he had failed to conduct thorough investigations of corruption, and had stifled efforts to investigate embezzlement and misconduct by public officials following the 2014 uprising.
snip
they tear into the NYT's and its reporter Ken Vogel for spreading bullshit too
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)"Centrist" is perjorative. Because no, the caucus isn't "Democrat-backed" in the sense that the Democratic Party, let alone the leadership is 'backing" this independent group of reps who are veterans.
Sort of like calling Biden a "GOP-backed" candidate because the Lincoln Project is Republicans...
Got it.
Celerity
(43,285 posts)progressive are a priori pejorative. Both types play their own versions of purity tests.
I am a very much a pragmatist, and refuse to get caught up in that internecine sniping. That is why I already said I will be amongst the first in line to condemn any so-called progressive action to primary a vulnerable frontline Democrat.
If Cuellar was in a Collin Peterson-style ruby Red district, his name would have never seen the light of day from my typing, unless he was somehow THE swing vote on taking away any of my LGBTQ rights, or some crucial bill on Abortion and reproductive rights.
He is in a totally safe Blue seat, he is the only Democrat left I endorse a 2022 primary challenge of (and notice I did say we need a centre-left, centrist type to challenge him, just one who actually supports our Party's platforms at vastly fundamental points, the ones he is against, and that is where I shall stay in terms of my opinion.) Oh, and ffs NO MORE Dems campaigning and fundraising for Rethugs like Cuellar did in 2018. Manchin doing that for Collins against Gideon in 2020 in a staggeringly CRUCIAL Senate race this November is outfuckingrageous.
If Sanders (who as you are well, well, aware I am no fangirl of in the slightest) had done that, the calls for his disembowelment on here would be legion.
Also, the Lincoln Project backing Biden is in no way comparable to this entire thing. The Lincoln Project Rethugs are considered apostates by the vast majority of the actual Republican Caucus and Trump himself, plus 50 plus million voters. Neither Party considers the bi-partisan members of The For Country Caucus in Congress apostates to their own party at taproot level. The Lincoln Project also is not connected to a Congressional Caucus. Finally, Biden is not running against a vulnerable Dem, so there is simply no comparison to this situation.
Finally, it is not just that the members of For Country are ex-military. They are very much in a centrist slice of the ideological spectrum. None are remotely progressive. Regardless of whether one is a fan of such persuasion makes no difference, but is is simply factually wrong to try and say its just an ex-military thing.
These are The Trump Scores for the 4 Democratic Members who were in the last full Congress
I include Cuellar as a benchmark, as he has the highest Trump Score of all Democrats in Congress
All are on the higher end for Democrats, especially Lamb
Here are their Caucus memberships (besides For Country)
All are in centrist (6 in the bipartisan Problems Solvers Caucus, the most centrist to centre-right (it has 24 Rethugs in it) of all in multiple cases, especially when it came to Pelosi) caucuses besides For Country, none are remotely progressive (again, not making a value judgement, just stating facts)
Almost all voted against Pelosi for Speaker or signed the anti-Pelosi letter, or vocally opposed her, but some ended up voting for her
Only 2 were never against Pelosi (Luria and Houlahan)
If a bunch of Progressives had done that, to the level many on this list did (including some actually voting against her) there would be howls for their heads on platters.
Conor Lamb (PA-17) Problem Solvers , also voted against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker
Seth Moulton (MA-16) New Democrat Coalition, signed the anti Pelosi letter, changed mind
Jimmy Panetta (CA-20) Problem Solvers, signed anti Pelosi letter, changed mind
Salud Carbajal (CA-24) New Democrat Coalition, Problem Solvers, was against Pelosi, changed mind
Here are the other Caucus Memberships for the 7 Democratic Freshman/Freshwomen
Gil Cisneros (CA-39) New Democrat Coalition, supported the anti-Pelosi letter after it was sent, the changed mind
Jason Crow (CO-06) New Democrat Coalition, also voted against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker
Jared Golden (ME-02) Blue Dog Coalition, also voted against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker
Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06) New Democrat Coalition, Problem Solvers
Elaine Luria (VA-02) New Democrat Coalition, Problem Solvers
Max Rose (NY-11) Blue Dog Coalition, New Democrat Coalition, Problem Solvers Caucus, also voted against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker
Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11) Blue Dog Coalition, New Democrat Coalition, also voted against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker
RussBLib
(9,006 posts)While remaining silent on all the losses.
Par for Baby Trump.
budkin
(6,699 posts)Why the fuck did Katie Hill resign??
question everything
(47,465 posts)You put compromising photos on line they are bound to be spread.
The former California lawmaker joined the hosts only four months after the House Ethics Committee opened an investigation against her for allegedly having a sexual relationship with a male congressional staffer -- an allegation she again denied to ABC News' Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos in an exclusive interview Thursday on "Good Morning America."
The alleged relationship would have been in violation of House rules. Following the #MeToo movement, Congress adopted a rule in February 2018 that barred relationships between members and any subordinates.
She has also acknowledged and apologized for having a sexual relationship with a female campaign staffer when she was running for Congress. While having this relationship wasn't against any congressional rules, she told the hosts "it was wrong."
The scandal that further sensationalized Hill's political career came when nude photos of her were leaked on a conservative website without her consent. She told the hosts she didn't even know they were taken.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/reflecting-2019-photo-scandal-rep-katie-hill-fully/story?id=69105515